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View Poll Results: Should the Reds try Aroldis Chapman as a starter?

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  • Yes, convert him now

    40 59.70%
  • No, he should remain a closer

    27 40.30%
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Thread: Time for the Chapman Poll

  1. #16
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    I think it would be a shame if we never found out how capable a starter he could be. Of course, if the Reds won a WS title or two with Chapman at closer, the "what if?" factor would be much less painful to contemplate.

    I prefer to see what Chapman can do as a starter, though I feel comfortable leaving it up to Price to decide. He's earned a bit of trust, I think.
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  3. #17
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Yup, give it a shot. If it's not working, put him back. And even if you're trying Chapman out in the rotation, I'm not worried about retaining Broxton or signing another reliever. Between Arredondo, Cingrani, Hoover, Leake, LeCure, Marshall, Masset, Ondrusek, Simon, etc. (plus minor league free agents destined for Louisville), I think we're covered. Use that money to sign an outfielder or two and upgrade the bench.

  4. #18
    Member Tadasimha's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    If he hadn't developed into such a great closer, I'd say go with giving him a shot as a starter. Since he did turn into such a dominant closer I say there's no way I'd want him to go back to trying to be a starter.

    The plans espoused to just try it and then make him a closer if it doesn't work make no sense. We've already seen how his arm can get tired - how much more tired will his arm be later in the season after pitching longer outings through out the first part of the year if they do decide to move him back to a starter? What if the Reds find themselves without a reliable closer and we see multiple blown saves during the first half of the season? I wouldn't want them to fall out of contention early because their best closer is sitting on the bench waiting for his next start.

    Chapman closes, period.
    If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    You'll never know if you don't try and given that he was always a starter until the Reds put him in the pen, the supposed risk is overstated.

    The fear of the bullpen blowing leads is about emotion more than anything else. A game lost in the 5th inning when your starter implodes counts just as much as a collapse in the 9th. If he stinks at starting, fine, get him back to the bullpen. But to give up on the possibility that he's the next Randy Johnson would be foolish and myopic in my book.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You'll never know if you don't try and given that he was always a starter until the Reds put him in the pen, the supposed risk is overstated.

    The fear of the bullpen blowing leads is about emotion more than anything else. A game lost in the 5th inning when your starter implodes counts just as much as a collapse in the 9th. If he stinks at starting, fine, get him back to the bullpen. But to give up on the possibility that he's the next Randy Johnson would be foolish and myopic in my book.
    Out of curiosity, how do you construct the bullpen when Aroldis starts the year in the rotation?

  7. #21
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Out of curiosity, how do you construct the bullpen when Aroldis starts the year in the rotation?
    I wouldn't give him a huge leash, but I'd be tempted to give Lecure a shot at closer. If he can do what he did the last few months of the season, I don't care what the radar gun says. Marshall would probably be fine if we gave him another chance, but he seemed a little sharper when he had regular work in the 7th and 8th.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Out of curiosity, how do you construct the bullpen when Aroldis starts the year in the rotation?
    Based on the 40 man roster at it stands today:

    CL: Alfredo Simon
    SU: Sean Marshall
    SU: J.J. Hoover
    MR: Sam LeCure
    MR: Nick Masset (assuming health)
    MR: Bill Bray (assuming health)
    LR: Jose Arredondo

    No, it doesn't mean I think Simon is our best reliever. It means he's a good reliever but not the guy I want brought in to put out fires necessarily. Knowing how Dusty likes to manage (and how most managers do), the closer gets a lot of clean innings. The biggest thing for a closer, in my book, is simple solid peripherals and not being susceptible to the pressure created by the closer mythos. In terms of the other roles, it's just about leverage and getting out of jams. I could easily flip Masset and Hoover if one has been more effective or even use one as closer, but I don't really believe in dedicated setup men to begin with. I keep LeCure in middle relief because of his ability to go multiple innings in a close game if the pen is generally a bit overworked.

    As you probably know, I think Ondrusek is insanely overrated in some parts around here. His reasonable ERAs, particularly over some stretches, are mostly a function of a very good defense and pitching partial innings where somebody else gets hit with the ER. Yes, he has flashes of dominance and can show good stuff. But all relievers do or they wouldn't be in the major leagues at all. He's not special. He doesn't miss bats. He has mediocre-at-best control. He gives up his share of HRs. He is your classic fungible reliever. Keep him in AAA or give him throwaway innings if you must. Let him go somewhere else. I don't care. Guys like him are a dime a dozen.

    I've traded Homer or Leake for an OF who can find first base regularly, assuming the Reds don't do something crazy like go get David Wright. Cigrani is the #1 guy in Louisville and the first guy up to the rotation in case of injury. He stays a starter even if a bullpen spot opens up unless its a spot he's going to keep for the rest of the year. I don't want him being jerked around. Redmond and Villarreal on the other hand would also be AAA starters, but I'd be more willing to bring them up to fill a need.

    Bottom line, I think we have an awful lot of pitching talent, easily enough to justify giving Chapman a solid opportunity to start. Even if neither Masset nor Bray comes back, I like the younger guys we have available -- even if he means Ondrusek has to be the long man, he's a low leverage guy anyways so that doesn't hurt you very much in terms of real world wins and losses.

    Personally, I'd run a bullpen using a combination of new and old school.
    - Give me a reliable, cool-headed type to close games out.
    - Use my fireballers to pitch high leverage innings, particularly to get out of james.
    - Make sure to have at least one guy who is extremely tough on lefties.
    - Have one guy be your designated long man to save the rest of the pen when a starter gets knocked out early.

    That pretty much takes care of it. Everybody still has a role. A lot is done based on situation and freshness.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-02-2012 at 12:50 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    I can't believe this is even close. Then again, I almost never understand when polls are close these days.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  10. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I can't believe this is even close. Then again, I almost never understand when polls are close these days.
    Loss aversion is a powerful thing. Give people a 50/50 chance to win $11 at the cost of $10 and most wouldn't.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    I'm as intrigued as anyone by Chapman to the rotation. I also agree that he could probably move back to the pen if it fails. I'm less concerned about the effects on Chapman as I am on the effects on the team. Moving Chapman weakens the pen a lot. If he fails as a starter, it means we suffer through a significant portion of the season with a hole in the rotation and are left with trying to find some one to fill it if he moves back to the pen.

    IMO, the Reds need to sign one reliever capable of closing or being a set-up guy while they give Hoover a shot. Masset looks a lot like burnt toast and so does Bray IMO. Simon is a 32 y/o journeyman who hasn't been good until 60 or so low leverage innings last year and could (and likely will) turn back into a pumpkin at any time. Arredondo is probably more maligned than he should be, but he has real issues with his control, is prone to explosions and probably is destined as a run of the mill middle innings guy (his effectiveness against LH Hitters is a plus). Marshall is very good, but he seemed to "spit the bit" when the game was put in his hands. He's very solid, but not the 9th inning guy IMO. I think Lecure could step up into a bigger role and hope he becomes more of a 7th and 8th inning guy than a long reliever. Ondrusek is an interchangeable 12th man on the staff IMO. I don't think they can take Chapman out of the pen without another late inning guy (and probably a second lefty). I'd be fine giving Hoover a shot to close, but want a guy with closing experience as a fall back who could also be a very solid guy for the 8th inning.

    As far as the 5 existing starters, I'd keep them all. The Reds really need an alternative if Chapman fails. Even if Chapman is a success, the chances of all 5 starters making through the season without missing a start again is a long shot. Leake pitched poorly enough late in the year that a move to long relief should not be out of the question for him and I think he'd prove very valuable in that role and getting the likely double digit starts that he'd end up with. I don't see a reason to deal him to "make room" and certanly wouldn't deal Bailey unless overwhelmed by the return. So, keep the starters, bring back Broxton or some one similar and give it a go with Chapman in the rotation, but be ready to switch it up if he's struggling to get out of the 5th inning into June (a very real possibility IMO)

    1. Latos
    2. Cueto
    3. Bailey
    4. Arroyo
    5. Chapman
    6. Leake

    Closer - Hoover
    LHSU - Marshall
    RHSU - Broxton or somebody
    MR -Lecure
    MR - Lefty to be acquired or Arredondo
    Mop-up - Masset or Simon until a kid forces his way in.

    Bray and Ondrusek should be non-tendered IMO.

    Under those conditions, I'm for Chapman in the rotation.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-02-2012 at 06:31 AM.
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  12. #26
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    I wanted to see them make the experiment two years ago and I'd still do it now. May not work, in which case you move him back to closer. But if you really want to upgrade the team, this is the most available way to do it: Chapman into rotation, Leake moved or pitching opening day in Louisville.

  13. #27
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    You could consider the fact they have so much depth in the bullpen and rotation prior to even FA, which appears somewhat deep with experience, now is a perfect time to let him take his lumps, etc. Let him get 150 innings as the #5. Move Lecure to closer (the guy doesn't care), and Leake to the bullpen in Arredondo's role. I don't think fear should dictate the decision.

  14. #28
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Out of curiosity, how do you construct the bullpen when Aroldis starts the year in the rotation?
    I'd give a couple different guys a shot at it. Marshall, Hoover, LeCure (I was just thinking that, Superdude). I'm even a fan of the dreaded Closer by Committee.

    LeCure
    Marshall
    Arredondo
    Hoover
    Simon
    Massett (if he's ready)
    Bray

    That's still a really nice pen, and throw Leake in there if he doesn't get traded/moved down.
    Last edited by WildcatFan; 11-02-2012 at 10:22 AM.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  15. #29
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Having Leake in 2014 isn't a bad thing either, since Arroyo's contract is up. Then again, they have 4-5 really good arms in the minors that will be coming fast. Shoot, give Leake a 3b glove, I bet he could do better than Valdez!

  16. #30
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Time for the Chapman Poll

    Something I'll bet the front office is considering that I don't see mentioned here is the fact that as a closer, he could be in ANY game.

    This is pretty big at the box office. The chance to see this kid is a huge incentive in ticket sales, and once every five days isn't as big a draw as possibly everyday, IMO.

    Even when it's just one inning, every time I saw this kid this year it was electric. The stadium was energized. And just the anticipation of his coming into the game made it something special.

    Not talking best for the on field team here, just best for the organizations bottom line.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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