With six players entering free agency (Ludwick, Navarro, Cairo, Broxton, Rolen, Madson) and Lance reporting that Bray will be non-tendered, the roster is down to 34. Not a lot of candidates for those spots, though they may keep two, maybe three open for free agent signings.
Here are some candidates. Daniel Corcino is the one lock. The next best player in 2012 on the list is Fellhauer. I think this year, it will be heavy on a) follow the money (as in signing bonus investment); b) projectability rather than past performance.
Duran does not have any business being on the 40-man, but see a) above, so I think he goes on there. Yorman too. This is mostly political (ie: if you leave them off, you are saying something that your boss, who spent the money, does not want to hear). You probably let them prove they can't play before you make that admission. Has VERY LITTLE to do with whether anyone thinks they would get taken by another club in the Rule V. Anyone who does not think politics and money factor into minor league player decisions, see Junior Arias at third base in Dayton all of 2012.
So I am going to say Corcino, Yorman, Duran, and either Partch, Crabbe, or Guillon. I don't have a feel for Fellhauer either way. Ravin would be a wildcard. Pearl would have been on there based on his 2012 first half and he has a projectable arm, but an injury risk. Partch has always been the tease with a great arm, no productivity. In a different year, no room, but this year, maybe. Crabbe is a similar case, as is Ravin for that matter. Guillon does not have the arm of the others but is much younger and had a great 2012. Still, pitchers who throw 88-89 and have very little experience above Rookie-ball rarely are protected, but it has happened.
Lets follow up a bit on the money given to Y-Rod and Duran. Keep in mind that the amount given to Y-Rod, $2.5 million, is tied for the second largest in the history of the franchise behind only Chapman, who was a special case. More than first round picks. Duran is right behind at $2 million. So even though those players have huge issues, the investment the Reds made in them in 2008 likely is still "live." You give that kind of money, you are committing to the player until the player completely fails. I could be wrong and they could be left off, but I will be surprised if it happens. Shocked actually.