You're absolutely right and I agree with you.
I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.
It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.
This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.
Source:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...drus-who-wins/
While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.