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Thread: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

  1. #91
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

    Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

    The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.
    I stand corrected on the story. I still don't see then dealing Upton in any deal that the Reds wouldn't also consider for Bruce. We have heard these stories before, but nobody has dealt him. If they stories were true and they really were sour on him why wouldn't they have dealt him before? Maybe the stories of his availability are hogwash. Maybe he is available, but I don't think a team is going to be able to steal him. That's what these proposals are IMO.

    Actually, if I was the Rangers, I'd move Profar to CF and keep my studs up the middle intact. I coud see them dealing Olt, but they really need a starter. Dempster is gone. So is Feldman. Feliz had TJ and Colby Lewis had surgery on his flexor tendon. They are probably fine with Murphy and Cruz on the OF corners and Leonys Martin coming. It would be pretty easy to find a platoon partner for Murphy (Jonny Gomes anyone). They should be looking for an arm in any deal, not Upton. If they can't get a good free agent, the should package Olt, with OF guys like Engel Beltre and maybe a Cody Buckel and go after some one like Garza.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #92
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    It depends on what Upton the Diamondbacks think they are trading, mth. The 2012 Upton had a lower WAR than Cozart, a rookie who will make the league minimum for two more seasons. In my proposal they would also get a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Bailey, and a top prospect, Cingrani...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    It depends on what Upton the Diamondbacks think they are trading, mth. The 2012 Upton had a lower WAR than Cozart, a rookie who will make the league minimum for two more seasons. In my proposal they would also get a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Bailey, and a top prospect, Cingrani...
    Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?
    No, because the Reds have different (and less) needs than the Diamondbacks. Would I consider trading Jay Bruce? If we didn't have Billy Hamilton waiting in the wings then yes, I would consider trading him. I think him getting elected to the all-star game and then winning the Silver Slugger award may be pointing to him being an overrated player whose defense has been in decline...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Would you trade Jay Bruce for that?
    Bruce isn't coming off of a .785 OPS season.

    If Justin Upton is a .785 bat going forward rather than a .900 bat, then just about anything is an overpay.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    Bruce isn't coming off of a .785 OPS season.

    If Justin Upton is a .785 bat going forward rather than a .900 bat, then just about anything is an overpay.
    Upton is 4 months younger than Bruce with a Career OPS 19 points higher than Jay. Upton's Career OBP is .357 with a .355 in 2012. Bruce has more power, but the two are pretty similar valuewise.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #97
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    I'd offer Gregorius for Upton straight up. If they say they want more, I'd offer to include one of the following - HRod, Sharky Rogers, Lotzkar, or Villareal. If they still balk, I'd walk away.

    The Reds are in the drivers seat and don't have to do anything to be good again next year.
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Upton is 4 months younger than Bruce with a Career OPS 19 points higher than Jay. Upton's Career OBP is .357 with a .355 in 2012. Bruce has more power, but the two are pretty similar valuewise.
    You're absolutely right and I agree with you.

    I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.

    It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.

    This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.

    If you think 2011 is the real Justin Upton, then this probably a deal Texas should make, as they’d be buying low on a potential superstar. However, he showed just average power in both 2010 and 2012, and average power from a corner outfielder who strikes out a decent amount isn’t usually the foundation for a true superstar. The flashes of greatness are tempting, and his ceiling is higher than Andrus’, but his floor is also lower and he comes with a higher price tag.
    Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...drus-who-wins/

    While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.
    Well said. However, consider that the Reds have a legitimate surplus at SS. So, they have to make a deal there. The question becomes, could you do better than Upton? A 4-hole RH hitter is without a doubt the biggest need the organization has that does not appear to have an in-house solution anywhere close to the majors (if at all). If you take the position that the SS surplus should be used to fill that need, then I think Upton is on a very short list (Headley being the other guy, but it seems he's going to stay in SD).

    But the surplus does not have to be dealt off this offseason. If Jocketty doesn't like what's out there in the trade market, he should wait. It won't hurt to keep Didi in AAA in 2013.
    Last edited by lollipopcurve; 11-11-2012 at 09:55 AM.
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  11. #100
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    You're absolutely right and I agree with you.

    I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.

    It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.

    This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.



    Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...drus-who-wins/

    While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.
    When I listed what I think it would take to get Upton, there is no way I would actually make any of those deals from the Reds point of view. My point is that I think the idea that Arizona is going to move Upton for the best offer is wrong. I don't cae if no one else is bidding, you won't steal Upton for Leake, Stubbs and Cozart. Arizona can just keep him and I think they will unless they get a kings ransom that solves 2 or 3 organizational needs.

    I think the desire to move Upton is exaggerated and can be chalked up to a news hungry media in an off-season with little going on so far. They have to write something, but it doesn't mean they are going to deal Upton just to deal him no matter how poor the offers are. Mike Leake as a centepiece won't get it done. Neither will Cozart.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Actually, if I was the Rangers, I'd move Profar to CF and keep my studs up the middle intact.
    I'd never move a player off SS who actually profiles as a plus defender there, as he simply have too much value as a SS. I'd trade him first.

  13. #102
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Well said. However, consider that the Reds have a legitimate surplus at SS.
    A legitimate surplus? This is the part I'm not getting. We've got a starter and we've got a starter in AAA on the cusp of being ready. How is THAT a surplus? After Didi, the pickings are VERY slim. I'm sorry, that's not a surplus. That's the bare minimum that every team should strive for.
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  14. #103
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    A legitimate surplus? This is the part I'm not getting. We've got a starter and we've got a starter in AAA on the cusp of being ready. How is THAT a surplus? After Didi, the pickings are VERY slim. I'm sorry, that's not a surplus. That's the bare minimum that every team should strive for.
    Yep, good teams have good players. I don't see any need to deal Didi so we can go with a Valdez or Janish on the bench. Nothing wrong with a team having depth. Unless the Reds can solve a problem that they can't solve otherwise, I'd hold on to both of these guys. They complement each other well.

    I don't think the Reds need to deal Didi or Cozart to solve LF. CF may be a little more dicey, but it would need to be an upgrade over Heisey and I'm not sure they could get that for Didi and the team would get more value by Didi spelling Cozart against a percentage of the RHP that he struggles against so much. That may actually provide more improvement compared to what you could get fo Didi vs. what the Reds could get from within.

    Guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith would provide what is needed in the OF and could probably be had w/o dealing Didi.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    My comp for Upton is Reggie Sanders -- a plus corner defender with medium power and speed. Sanders was always underrated because he was never what many thought he could've been -- a franchise player. Yet at the end of a long career Sanders was pretty good journeyman.

    I'll take that, but I wouldn't get illusions about Upton's career because he was impactful at 20. The age calculus becomes less compelling once a player starts to acquire playing time and doesn't budge much beyond the first full season.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What would it take to get Justin Upton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    My comp for Upton is Reggie Sanders -- a plus corner defender with medium power and speed. Sanders was always underrated because he was never what many thought he could've been -- a franchise player. Yet at the end of a long career Sanders was pretty good journeyman.

    I'll take that, but I wouldn't get illusions about Upton's career because he was impactful at 20. The age calculus becomes less compelling once a player starts to acquire playing time and doesn't budge much beyond the first full season.
    Good call.

    Career OPS+

    Reggie Sanders 115
    Jay Bruce 113
    Justin Upton 117
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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