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Thread: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

  1. #31
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Oooh, cool. I found this. Really highlights my point. The second graph, look at the first half of 2012. Yikes. That's Marshall's time as a closer. That's some crappy luck right there.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...ge=7&type=full

    (didn't realize I could just post the graph...well, here it is)
    Hmmm...that's odd. The graph was posted here earlier. Now it's gone. Oh well, you can still see it...just follow the link, it's the second graph. Weird though.
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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  3. #32
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    OK, fair enough. I think you guys (Sir Charles, RedsManRick) correctly outlined that it WAS bad luck for Marshall in 2012 during his brief time as the Reds' closer. I'm with you on that.

    However, would you not agree that with someone like Chapman, there are less hard-hit balls in play than there is with someone like, say, Mike Leake? I just think that while BABIP is a good and useful stat, it does have one flaw and that is pretending like it's the same no matter the pitcher you are facing. Someone like Chapman is going to get a lot more bleeders and break a lot more bats than someone like Leake who we see getting rocked quite often. So, that's where BABIP goes wrong. Overall, I'm glad the stat exists though. It definitely has its place.

    To get back to the premise of this thread, it's clear "Chapman To The Rotation?" is by far the biggest storyline of the offseason. Makes things interesting for sure.
    I would say that a guy like Chapman there are fewer balls hit at all, hard or not.

    But for me, the way I look at it is, the harder the pitch...the harder the hit. The transference of velocity from the pitcher to the bat seems to match up somewhat. A hard hit ball off of a "soft tosser", all of the velocity off the bat (okay, MORE of the velocity) is generated by the hitter. A ball hit off of a 99 mph fastball goes farther/faster it seems. At least that's how I perceive it. I've got no data to back that up. If anybody could verify that, jump on in.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I would say that a guy like Chapman there are fewer balls hit at all, hard or not.

    But for me, the way I look at it is, the harder the pitch...the harder the hit. The transference of velocity from the pitcher to the bat seems to match up somewhat. A hard hit ball off of a "soft tosser", all of the velocity off the bat (okay, MORE of the velocity) is generated by the hitter. A ball hit off of a 99 mph fastball goes farther/faster it seems. At least that's how I perceive it. I've got no data to back that up. If anybody could verify that, jump on in.
    Most of the power is supplied by the bat speed of the hitter. The pitch velocity does supply some of it, but a very small amount when compared to the bat speed and cleanness of contact.

  5. #34
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Most of the power is supplied by the bat speed of the hitter. The pitch velocity does supply some of it, but a very small amount when compared to the bat speed and cleanness of contact.
    I was considering the "cleanness of contact" to be equal. But thanks regardless. I'm sure it's just one of those things you see several times and start to think it's the norm. A big FB pitcher comes in and gives up a homer...invariably it's an absolute BOMB.

    It just seemed to me that if the swing is the same, the contact is the same and the only difference is the pitch velocity, then the harder thrower would be giving up the harder hit ball. But it's just a VERY small bit of the puzzle.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  6. #35
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I was considering the "cleanness of contact" to be equal. But thanks regardless. I'm sure it's just one of those things you see several times and start to think it's the norm. A big FB pitcher comes in and gives up a homer...invariably it's an absolute BOMB.

    It just seemed to me that if the swing is the same, the contact is the same and the only difference is the pitch velocity, then the harder thrower would be giving up the harder hit ball. But it's just a VERY small bit of the puzzle.
    All things being equal, velocity will make a difference, but even 5 MPH on a fastball the difference is going to only be a couple of extra feet.

  7. #36
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    I guess we'll chalk this up to "observational bias" and call it a day. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  8. #37
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    One thing I don't do is blindly throw him into the rotation. He has to earn it like anyone else. That means that he has to show that he can change speeds and throw enough strikes to get to 7 innings. If he doesn't show those things then he will fail and why set him (and the team) up for failure? I haven't seen enough from him to say that I think he can be a better starter than closer. As a starter he'll have to win with a 94-96 mph FB. That will require two other pitches that he can throw for strikes. I'm not sure he can do that but I have no problem giving him the chance to show me
    Why? As I have already pointed out in other threads, Chapman the starter doesn't need to dial it down anymore, because Chapman the closer already did for the sake of command. He already throws significantly lower than max effort.
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  9. #38
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Why? As I have already pointed out in other threads, Chapman the starter doesn't need to dial it down anymore, because Chapman the closer already did for the sake of command. He already throws significantly lower than max effort.
    My point is that Chapman the starter must pitch totally differently than what we saw from him as a closer. There's a reason Dusty didn't use him more than an inning. He can't throw 95% FBs and be a good starter for us

  10. #39
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    My point is that Chapman the starter must pitch totally differently than what we saw from him as a closer. There's a reason Dusty didn't use him more than an inning. He can't throw 95% FBs and be a good starter for us
    I don't know that it will be fastball after fastball, but I don't think it will "totally differently." It will still be FB first, at a very high percentage, with offspeed for show and occasional putaway pitch.
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  11. #40
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    I think the issue is how long he can go with the hard stuff. At 98+, hitters don't really have time to be too selective. If he's working at 94 or 95, I think a lot of guys will lay off that swing and miss slider. He doesn't really get the slider over the plate. If hitters have time to recognize the slider (and getting multiple PAs per game against him will help), then a lot of those K's will convert to walks (or favorable counts where they can sit on the fastball) and we'll have another Volquez on our hands.

    I'm all for giving it a try, but Chapman is far from a sure thing as a starting pitcher. Just taking his peripherals as a reliever and assuming they'll hold up multiple times through a batting order just isn't how it works.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-10-2012 at 09:23 AM.
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  12. #41
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Have him work with Soto and get that circle change going and he could be absolutely devastating.
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  13. #42
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the issue is how long he can go with the hard stuff. At 98+, hitters don't really have time to be too selective. If he's working at 94 or 95, I think a lot of guys will lay off that swing and miss slider. He doesn't really get the slider over the plate. If hitters have time to recognize the slider (and getting multiple PAs per game against him will help), then a lot of those K's will convert to walks (or favorable counts where they can sit on the fastball) and we'll have another Volquez on our hands.

    I'm all for giving it a try, but Chapman is far from a sure thing as a starting pitcher. Just taking his peripherals as a reliever and assuming they'll hold up multiple times through a batting order just isn't how it works.
    I share your skepticism, but to be honest, if he can't get his slider over more regularly than he did in 2012, Chapman will get hit hard whether he is a starter or reliever.
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  14. #43
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    Re: If the Reds do convert Chapman...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    My point is that Chapman the starter must pitch totally differently than what we saw from him as a closer. There's a reason Dusty didn't use him more than an inning. He can't throw 95% FBs and be a good starter for us
    We already know Jocketty and Co. told him to drop the third pitch and Hanigan probably feels very little need to mess with the slider when no one can touch his fastball on most nights. The million dollar question is can he pitch like a starter if asked to do so.


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