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Thread: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

  1. #31
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Shortstop is one of those positions where if the offense is reasonably close, I always go with the better defensive player. Since I don't expect much more from Cozart, I think ultimately he and Gregorious will be reasonably comparable offensively. Since Gregorious is the better defender, I would go with Gregorious.

    Throw in the age difference and I actually think it's pretty clear cut.

    The one thing this doesn't consider is trade value. I'm guessing Gregorious probably has slightly higher value, but since I doubt it's significantly different, I wouldn't let that impact the decision.

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think the presence of Gregorius may have been more of a convenient excuse to move him to CF without hurting his confidence than a true reason for the move. Surely it's at minimum some of both.
    I doubt confidence was an issue. Hamilton surely has plenty. If you're a kid and the organization comes to you and says, "We think you're a solid SS, but you could be a great CF, so we're shifting you to CF," what you hear is you're going to be a great CF.

    I'd be stunned if Gregorius' name ever came up when discussing the shift with Hamilton.

    Meanwhile the folks in the front office are paid to the think about the big picture. And they seem to be thinking big picture. The core of Votto-Bruce-Phillips is locked up for another five years. So who's the SS they see playing for that team? We know it's not Hamilton. Maybe it's Cozart, but given his age I'm far from sold on it.

    We can't know for sure, but it's highly possible the Reds' big picture involves Gregorius at SS. He's got no one pushing from behind him now. Put it this way, the Hamilton move has major repercussions for Gregorius. At the very least, the front office had to be aware of that.
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  4. #33
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You do realize that Cozart turned 27 during the past baseball season don't you? Guys don't exactly flip on a switch at that age.

    Also, aside from batting him 8th where he would just be walked to get to the pitcher more, why would Cozart benefit from moving down in the lineup?
    He has had one full seasons worth of at bats. I think that a player can improve after one year in the big leagues.

  5. #34
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Shortstop is one of those positions where if the offense is reasonably close, I always go with the better defensive player. Since I don't expect much more from Cozart, I think ultimately he and Gregorious will be reasonably comparable offensively. Since Gregorious is the better defender, I would go with Gregorious.

    Throw in the age difference and I actually think it's pretty clear cut.

    The one thing this doesn't consider is trade value. I'm guessing Gregorious probably has slightly higher value, but since I doubt it's significantly different, I wouldn't let that impact the decision.
    Is Didi the better defender? Cozart rated quite well out there, both via the stats and the eye test. I wouldn't downplay the value of Cozart's power.

    By far the biggest differentiator between them is age. Cozart is in his prime right now. Didi G will be 23. Cozart may be more attractive to a win-now team, while Didi more valuable to a team that's looking a few years down the road.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Is Didi the better defender? Cozart rated quite well out there, both via the stats and the eye test. I wouldn't downplay the value of Cozart's power.

    By far the biggest differentiator between them is age. Cozart is in his prime right now. Didi G will be 23. Cozart may be more attractive to a win-now team, while Didi more valuable to a team that's looking a few years down the road.
    Aren't the Reds in a win now mode?

  7. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Leake and Gregorius as a significant portion of a package for Justin Upton?
    Sounds good. After that I suggest we trade Drew Stubbs for Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.
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  8. #37
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Aren't the Reds in a win now mode?
    Yes, but I think the argument forming is that the Reds would be ok with either guy, so deal the one with more current market value. I'd say the "win now" team would pay more for Cozart than the "building" team will for Gregorius.

    And I join in the question begged that assumes Didi is a better glove. Flashier, perhaps. Better, not sure that is easy to win the day on that one at this stage.

    Also, while I am concerned about Didi's stick, Cozart is a little bit of a teaser with the power potential, but he was also an out machine in his first full year. Either way, this certainly isn't a Larkin/Stillwell call. More like Ron Oester/Jeff Treadway.
    Last edited by traderumor; 11-09-2012 at 03:24 PM.
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  9. #38
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    He has had one full seasons worth of at bats. I think that a player can improve after one year in the big leagues.
    Your belief of that is likely based around rookies typically getting better, but typical rookies don't turn 27 during their rookie season. On the offensive bell curve, 27 is usually the peak. History tells us that Cozart is very close to what he is.

  10. #39
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Is Didi the better defender? Cozart rated quite well out there, both via the stats and the eye test.
    Yes, he is. Better range, better arm, better athleticism and he is nearly as sure in the field.

  11. #40
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Aren't the Reds in a win now mode?
    Sure, but every team has a different set of needs. A team that has a massive hole in at SS who is in win now mode will value him differently than a team that is also in win now mode but who has a capable replacement in the wings.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #41
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    By the way, I still think a DiDi-centered deal for Ellsbury makes a ton of sense for both sides. Add a pitcher (Corcino, Cingrani, Leake- in that order of preference for me) and I'd imagine the Sox have a hard time turning that down.

    Yes he'd be a one year rental, but a superb one for the Reds. Would start in CF but could move to LF if/when Hamilton is ready. Assuming he's healthy, Reds would tender him and get a first round pick when he leaves via FA next year.
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  13. #42
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sure, but every team has a different set of needs. A team that has a massive hole in at SS who is in win now mode will value him differently than a team that is also in win now mode but who has a capable replacement in the wings.
    QFT, either Cozart or Gregorius could be awfully appealing to a team with a gaping hole at SS. And either way, the Reds retain a glove man with some potential goodness in his bat.
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  14. #43
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    They must be pretty high on Gregorious if they are talking about dealing Cozart.
    I'd guess their ages are a big factor.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'd guess their ages are a big factor.
    Sure, but they aren't going to shop Cozart and move Hamilton to CF if they think Didi is a spaz.
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    Re: Jocketty: Reds could trade a shortstop

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    QFT, either Cozart or Gregorius could be awfully appealing to a team with a gaping hole at SS. And either way, the Reds retain a glove man with some potential goodness in his bat.
    With next to nothing behind them. Let's remember, we deal one of them and the one we keep gets injured...who's next on the depth chart? I'd guess a Jeff Keppinger-type.

    I say we keep Cozart. And let Didi have another year at AAA to see what we really have. If he starts out well, promote him as a back-up. But I just don't think he's ready for the bigs just yet offensively.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 11-09-2012 at 04:21 PM.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!


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