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Thread: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

  1. #16
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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Rasmus had a .259 BABIP this year and hit 23 HR and drove in 75 and the year before it was .267, we are talking about one of the more unlucky players in MLB. Stubbs in his down years the last 2 has a .290 and .343 BABIP.

    Drew is a .241 hitter with a .323 career BABIP to put it into perceptive Pujols has a .309 BABIP as a .325 hitter. We are talking about a player 2 years younger with more upside and still better than Drew with him having poor luck vs Drew having good luck.

    Escobar just turned 30 and he made a mistake, people do dumb things all the time but before he played in the difficult AL East he was a stud with high OBP something we need bad. And much like Rasmus he didn't have much luck with a .273 BABIP after posting .290/.369/.413/.782 in 2011 when the balls fell in. Cozart had a BABIP of .282 or 9 points higher and and still ended up hitting 7 points worse.

    Both these guys also didn't play in the Al East with 3 of the AL's top 6 ERA in his division rather than just the Cards in top 6 here in at 6th and we only played them 15 times vs 18 games each with the teams in the AL East. Our Division also featured 3 or the 4 worst NL team ERA while the worst AL East pitching staff was just Boston.
    You are using the BABIP stat incorrectly. It is not a "one size fits all" statistic. I'm not going to go into it here for the sake of staying on topic. If you PM me, I'd be glad to give a full explanation.

    These guys were acquired by a team that took Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion from the MLB scrap heap and all of a sudden were 2 of the most fear hitters in the league. Same team, same AL East. Also, Rasmus is a huge downgrade from Stubbs defensively and on the basepaths.

    But again, these guys have been headaches everywhere they've been. Escobar did not make one bad decision. He has made a career out of making bad decisions. Right now, this Reds team is about as drama-free as it gets. Why add bad apples to this team? Let's throw all the stats out of the window. These guys are trouble. Always have been. This Reds team has a good thing going from a chemistry standpoint, I don't see messing that up for a couple of malcontents

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  3. #17
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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    He played extremely well in his cup of coffee in 2011 and took a step back in 2012. That is what I meant by "underachieving". I'm not saying he's a bust or will never amount to anything, but he is 27 years old with a highly regarded option sitting behind him. A decision has to be made on him soon.
    I think I mostly agree with you. Gregorious is just too promising at this point to declare Cozart the SS of the future. On the other hand, if Gregorius never panned out I would still be happy with Cozart as the SS going forward. So, maybe we differ a little in how much we like Cozart. But, I agree that a decision needs to be made in regard to the SS of the future - I just think that it's too early to make that decision now. I don't think the Reds need to try to rush Gregorius, especially since he's progressing so well. Let's at least give Gregorius another season (or at least half a season) in AAA, and then reassess. I feel good going into next season with Cozart, and I don't want to gamble with that position at this point. I do, however, disagree with those who want to hold on to every potential player and "platooon" them - both Cozart and Gregorius have too much trade value to waste like that.

  4. #18
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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    This is a stat I believe I heard so dont shoot me if it isnt true but has Didi not had an OPS over .700 at any point in his minor league career?

    I've seen him play quite a lot in the minors and wasn't impressed either. If he is hyped around the league to be at Cozart's level I would move him while he still has that value.

  5. #19
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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    I think I mostly agree with you. Gregorious is just too promising at this point to declare Cozart the SS of the future. On the other hand, if Gregorius never panned out I would still be happy with Cozart as the SS going forward. So, maybe we differ a little in how much we like Cozart. But, I agree that a decision needs to be made in regard to the SS of the future - I just think that it's too early to make that decision now. I don't think the Reds need to try to rush Gregorius, especially since he's progressing so well. Let's at least give Gregorius another season (or at least half a season) in AAA, and then reassess. I feel good going into next season with Cozart, and I don't want to gamble with that position at this point. I do, however, disagree with those who want to hold on to every potential player and "platooon" them - both Cozart and Gregorius have too much trade value to waste like that.
    I definitely don't dislike Cozart. Quite the opposite actually. I like his glove and pop in his bat. I wish Dusty wouldn't have miscast him in the leadoff spot for so long and let him struggle. I thought it was nice having him hitting in front of Votto and letting him gain confidence by seeing a lot of fastballs and he did well in that role. Instead he got to hit leadoff in front of, IMO, the worst hitter in baseball last season. I don't think they should trade Cozart at all costs by any means and you may not get value for him because you would not be trading him at peak value (this again shows my poor choice of words when I said "underachiever"). If you don't get value for him, keep him.

    I think where we may differ is that I feel like the presence of DiDi should make them feel comfortable trading Cozart (in the right deal of course) rather than the lack of polish on DiDi making them wary of trading Cozart.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by GotHeeeeem View Post
    This is a stat I believe I heard so dont shoot me if it isnt true but has Didi not had an OPS over .700 at any point in his minor league career?

    I've seen him play quite a lot in the minors and wasn't impressed either. If he is hyped around the league to be at Cozart's level I would move him while he still has that value.
    In his 4 minor league seasons (I'm not counting his 30+ games in rookie league) his lowest OPS has been .699. Now, his highest has been .753 so maybe you heard .800?

    If you would like to know more about OPS, PM me and I'd be glad to explain it

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    I definitely don't dislike Cozart. Quite the opposite actually. I like his glove and pop in his bat. I wish Dusty wouldn't have miscast him in the leadoff spot for so long and let him struggle. I thought it was nice having him hitting in front of Votto and letting him gain confidence by seeing a lot of fastballs and he did well in that role. Instead he got to hit leadoff in front of, IMO, the worst hitter in baseball last season. I don't think they should trade Cozart at all costs by any means and you may not get value for him because you would not be trading him at peak value (this again shows my poor choice of words when I said "underachiever"). If you don't get value for him, keep him.

    I think where we may differ is that I feel like the presence of DiDi should make them feel comfortable trading Cozart (in the right deal of course) rather than the lack of polish on DiDi making them wary of trading Cozart.
    Ok, I understand where you're coming from better now. But we do differ on whether the Reds should feel comfortable at this point trading Cozart due to the prescence of Gregorious. I'm just not there yet, and I'm a pretty big believer in Gregorious' potential.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    You are using the BABIP stat incorrectly. It is not a "one size fits all" statistic. I'm not going to go into it here for the sake of staying on topic. If you PM me, I'd be glad to give a full explanation.

    These guys were acquired by a team that took Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion from the MLB scrap heap and all of a sudden were 2 of the most fear hitters in the league. Same team, same AL East. Also, Rasmus is a huge downgrade from Stubbs defensively and on the basepaths.

    But again, these guys have been headaches everywhere they've been. Escobar did not make one bad decision. He has made a career out of making bad decisions. Right now, this Reds team is about as drama-free as it gets. Why add bad apples to this team? Let's throw all the stats out of the window. These guys are trouble. Always have been. This Reds team has a good thing going from a chemistry standpoint, I don't see messing that up for a couple of malcontents
    When you have BABIP that low you are having terrible luck any way you want to look at it. Bautista is a .264 hitter with the Jays he just hits HR after changing his swing and Encarnacion done nothing special there until this one season and they got Rasmus to hit HR as well.

    We don't have the money to get drama free talent unless we draft it or the come in at rock bottom like Ludwick. For the Reds to win a WS they need to hit on high talented players who have other issues. That's why we need to strike on players like Melky, Escobar and Rasmus.

    We got an amazing year out of out pitching and a massive run from Ludwick even if we bring the same team back we're not likely to get the same results, so if we sit on our hands we will be spending next October watching the Cards try for another run since we are losing some easy wins losing Houston and picking up more games with St Louis.

    Winning creates chemistry and kills drama, even if we keep the same team and lose you will hear about all the issues.

  9. #23
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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    When you have BABIP that low you are having terrible luck any way you want to look at it. Bautista is a .264 hitter with the Jays he just hits HR after changing his swing and Encarnacion done nothing special there until this one season and they got Rasmus to hit HR as well.

    We don't have the money to get drama free talent unless we draft it or the come in at rock bottom like Ludwick. For the Reds to win a WS they need to hit on high talented players who have other issues. That's why we need to strike on players like Melky, Escobar and Rasmus.

    We got an amazing year out of out pitching and a massive run from Ludwick even if we bring the same team back we're not likely to get the same results, so if we sit on our hands we will be spending next October watching the Cards try for another run since we are losing some easy wins losing Houston and picking up more games with St Louis.

    Winning creates chemistry and kills drama, even if we keep the same team and lose you will hear about all the issues.
    Your comment about BABIP is just simply untrue. Rasmus has an infield flyball rate of 15%. In other words, he pops out to the infield 15% of the time. Those are automatic outs. There is a nearly 0% chance of getting on base hitting an infield fly ball. Stubbs has an infield flyball rate of 7.5%. There is your .75 difference in BABIP between the 2 of them. Stubbs' speed also gives him a higher rate of infield hits than the average player, causing a higher BABIP.

    My point on Encarnacion and Bautista is they have none of these same problems in the big, bad, AL East.

    I never once said "keep the same team". Not once. And I just wholeheartedly disagree that it's impossible to pick up drama free talent on this team.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Your comment about BABIP is just simply untrue. Rasmus has an infield flyball rate of 15%. In other words, he pops out to the infield 15% of the time. Those are automatic outs. There is a nearly 0% chance of getting on base hitting an infield fly ball. Stubbs has an infield flyball rate of 7.5%. There is your .75 difference in BABIP between the 2 of them. Stubbs' speed also gives him a higher rate of infield hits than the average player, causing a higher BABIP.

    My point on Encarnacion and Bautista is they have none of these same problems in the big, bad, AL East.

    I never once said "keep the same team". Not once. And I just wholeheartedly disagree that it's impossible to pick up drama free talent on this team.

    Rasmus hits the ball way harder than Drew. Sure he pops up more than league average he but he also hits rockets that get caught all the time, He's been very unlucky.

    Bautista totally changed his swing and got power so to use him in this is comical at best since he reinvented himself completely and is just hitting .264 since adding the HR. Encarnacion had this one good year this season and the rest of his time he's been just a guy.

    We don't have the money to add drama free talent we have to find deals on damaged goods, gimmick contracts like Madson's, get lucky and draft it or trade the farm to get a cost controlled player. Locking up our star players is going to kill or payroll so we are going to be forced to take risks to win, we aren't going to keep pitching like we did this year especially in this park.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Rasmus hits the ball way harder than Drew. Sure he pops up more than league average he but he also hits rockets that get caught all the time, He's been very unlucky.

    Bautista totally changed his swing and got power so to use him in this is comical at best since he reinvented himself completely and is just hitting .264 since adding the HR. Encarnacion had this one good year this season and the rest of his time he's been just a guy.

    We don't have the money to add drama free talent we have to find deals on damaged goods, gimmick contracts like Madson's, get lucky and draft it or trade the farm to get a cost controlled player. Locking up our star players is going to kill or payroll so we are going to be forced to take risks to win, we aren't going to keep pitching like we did this year especially in this park.
    If this discussion has deteriorated to the point where we are talking about luck of a player based on "the eye test" then I don't have any interest in continuing it.

    Again, by using Encarnacion and Bautista, I'm saying, they were just guys, they came to the AL East (which is so tough that Rasmus hasn't hit as well) and even if for one year they have thrived. I could go on and on with guys who play in the AL East and hit well. Rasmus hasn't done it. It's not an excuse.

    As far as adding players. There are calculated risks and there's just being reckless. To me, this is being reckless. I personally don't see them as big enough upgrades (I know we have a difference of opinion on this) to put up with the headaches. It's taking a shot in the dark. Both of these guys have been on good teams and had bad attitudes on those teams as well. This team can't sit stagnant but I think they need to make smarter decisions than that.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    As far as adding players. There are calculated risks and there's just being reckless. To me, this is being reckless. .
    LOL, Reckless? These guys have just wrote something dumb on his eye black in Spanish and the other is accused by LaRussa who was a control freak of listing to his dad. I bet we have players on the team now that have done far worse things in their lives than that it just didn't make the media.

    Go to MLB to the video and type in Rasmus and defense and see how hits he lost to highlight plays. He one bad run this year after he got hurt where he went into a long slump but he hit the ball hard as hell for the better part of the year.

    He hit just .223 and still hit 23 HR and drove in 75 runs and scored the same in one of the best divisions in baseball, just think of the damage the kid would do with our RF HR porch that has seen him already hit 5 HR in 80 AB and the park has handed out 11 XBH in his 22 hits.

    He hit .141 vs the O's in 18 games and .113 in 17 games vs New York last year the two playoff teams from the AL East vs NL teams last year he hit .309/.365/.632/.997 in 17 games vs all 5 AL East teams plus the Brewers.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    LOL, Reckless? These guys have just wrote something dumb on his eye black in Spanish and the other is accused by LaRussa who was a control freak of listing to his dad. I bet we have players on the team now that have done far worse things in their lives than that it just didn't make the media.

    Go to MLB to the video and type in Rasmus and defense and see how hits he lost to highlight plays. He one bad run this year after he got hurt where he went into a long slump but he hit the ball hard as hell for the better part of the year.

    He hit just .223 and still hit 23 HR and drove in 75 runs and scored the same in one of the best divisions in baseball, just think of the damage the kid would do with our RF HR porch that has seen him already hit 5 HR in 80 AB and the park has handed out 11 XBH in his 22 hits.

    He hit .141 vs the O's in 18 games and .113 in 17 games vs New York last year the two playoff teams from the AL East vs NL teams last year he hit .309/.365/.632/.997 in 17 games vs all 5 AL East teams plus the Brewers.
    Yes, reckless, as in making a trade just to make a trade. Again, Escobar's eye black was not an isolated incident and by the way, that's not the first offensive comment he's made on his eye black. He is repeatedly called out for his lack of hustle and still uses the language barrier as a crutch 8 years into his career. The Braves traded him at the age of 27 after posting 3 years of over .760 OPS for ALEX GONZALEZ and even before the "eye black" incident, Toronto was shopping him at the deadline. Guys who are that talented don't just get passed around for no reason. As the saying goes "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." To me, acquiring Yunel Escobar and expecting him to hustle and stay out of trouble would fit that mold.

    Rasmus' dad being a pain was not just an accusation by Tony LaRussa. He has done multiple interviews with the media, one of which was suggesting a trade from the Cardinals. Colby said himself he needs to talk to his dad less. As far as the production goes, his walk rates are down from his Cardinal days, strikeout rate up, pops out to the infield in 15% of his balls he puts into play, his defense has deteriorated, doesn't get on base, doesn't steal bases.

    The stats you are giving on Rasmus at GABP are driven by his numbers 4 years ago. Over the last 3 years, he's been 11-47 at GABP.

    Again, even if these guys are mild upgrades over what we've got, I don't see that difference being big enough to put up with the headaches.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Escobar not only got traded for Gonzalez he also got traded for SS Tyler Pastornicky and LHP Tim Collins. Pastornicky is a player the D-Backs reportedly like for Upton and Collins since traded to KC in one of the best young LHP in the majors with a .216 BAA in 140 games and who just turned 23 in late August. So to act he was so bad the Braves gave him away for nothing is wrong,

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Escobar not only got traded for Gonzalez he also got traded for SS Tyler Pastornicky and LHP Tim Collins. Pastornicky is a player the D-Backs reportedly like for Upton and Collins since traded to KC in one of the best young LHP in the majors with a .216 BAA in 140 games and who just turned 23 in late August. So to act he was so bad the Braves gave him away for nothing is wrong,
    No, that's not at all what I was implying. The point is, they were in first place and obviously with eyes on a pennant and they dump their young talented SS of the present and future for a downgrade at SS and a couple of top 20 prospects. Unless there are deeper issues, that's not a move a team makes in a pennant race.

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    Re: Reds Willing to Trade a SS

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    No, that's not at all what I was implying. The point is, they were in first place and obviously with eyes on a pennant and they dump their young talented SS of the present and future for a downgrade at SS and a couple of top 20 prospects. Unless there are deeper issues, that's not a move a team makes in a pennant race.
    They did dump anything. They added a SS with .793 OPS at the time of the trade despite a very low OBP and got 2 solid prospects with him, it was a no brainier for a team looking to win and Toronto paid a ton to get Escobar.

    Gonzalez had 43 XBH out of his 85 hits and teams wanted to add him bad that year, the Cardinals thought they had a deal with the Jays for Brendan Ryan until the Braves came in a gave up Escobar who Toronto wanted bad at the time and sweeten the pot to get it done.


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