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Thread: One Name

  1. #31
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    You wouldn't keep Stubbs around to hit lefty pitching, because that's what Victorino does.

    Victorino does not hit righty pitching particularly well, did poorly against them in 2012. He does most of his damage against lefties.

    Lifetime Victorino has a .330 OBP and a .732 OPS against righties.
    Lifetime Victorino has a .373 OBP and a .881 OPS against lefties.

    In 2012, Victorino had a .296 OPS and a .629 OPS against righty pitching (472 PAs).
    In 2012, Victorino had a .388 OBP and a .906 OPS against lefty pitching.

    I think Victorino has a good chance to join the Reds. He would be viewed as the stopgap to Hamilton. But he's a high risk signing because if he OPSs .629 against righty pitching again, he won't help the offense much at all.

    Personally, he would not be my choice.
    Good points. I didn't bother to look at the splits. The only rebuttal would be that his BABIP vs RHP in 2010 and 2012 was in the mid-200's, like .250. So, you might expect something closer to the career norms of .730 OPS vs RHP.

    The other factor I propose is the accumulation of talent instead of the shuffling of talent going on with the Upton trade proposals, Span, Choo, etc. A short term FA like Victorino adds talent without losing prospects. Not knowing what a Fowler or Span would cost, and knowing their question marks, makes a FA CF more attractive than spending a lot in player resources this year. Upton is a guy I can't figure out. I'm gun shy after I spent Summer of 2011 begging for Jiminez. A true buy low (like Jim Edmonds was to Walt 10 years ago) would be great, but nothing like the Latos give would be worry free.

    I really think CF is a desperate area, as others have said recently on here. So, I've chosen to address it before LF, where my choice would also lean FA, Ludwick. Signing a FA to fix CF adds talent and upgrades the roster without thinning out the system again. Letting Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino and some others develop one more year is probably a good thing.

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  3. #32
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    Choo
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  4. #33
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    The Reds are talented, but imagine if they get more talented. They could win 100 games if Chapman sticks in the rotation. If you flip CF from being the worst offensive position in the league to being just average, that's significant. Frazier in LF with Victorino helping when Stubbs gets starts. Upgrading or keeping level 3b from an offensive standpoint shouldn't be too hard. Henry Rodriguez will be an option, and perhaps a bench player is out there.

  5. #34
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post

    I really think CF is a desperate area, as others have said recently on here. So, I've chosen to address it before LF, where my choice would also lean FA, Ludwick. Signing a FA to fix CF adds talent and upgrades the roster without thinning out the system again. Letting Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino and some others develop one more year is probably a good thing.
    Only question is why the Reds should spend on CF with Hamilton in the wings.

    Nobody wants to improve CF more than me, but I can't see a big deal for a Fowler or Span, or a major FA signing, when the CFer of the future is at AAA and destined to be a Red soon.

    LF, on the other hand, is empty right now with Ludwick as a FA. I'd think the "bigger" signing should be a LFer, where there is no Billy Hamilton on the horizon.

    As for Choo, one problem is he is a FA after next year; and a Boras client. He'd be my choice as a player, but it seems unlikely that the Reds could work this out - don't want to give up the farm for a rental.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-13-2012 at 10:53 AM.

  6. #35
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    I'm having a hard time believing in any scenario where Frazier isn't playing nearly every game at third base. I fully believe that Rolen will retire. Todd is going to be planted at third and let him sink or swim.
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  7. #36
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I'm having a hard time believing in any scenario where Frazier isn't playing nearly every game at third base. I fully believe that Rolen will retire. Todd is going to be planted at third and let him sink or swim.
    I can give you one scenario.

    The Reds acquire a third baseman and make Frazier the everyday LFer.

  8. #37
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I can give you one scenario.

    The Reds acquire a third baseman and make Frazier the everyday LFer.
    My point is I don't see the Reds going after a 3B'man and they/I view Todd as a better infielder than outfielder.
    2014 predictions:
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  9. #38
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Only question is why the Reds should spend on CF with Hamilton in the wings.

    Nobody wants to improve CF more than me, but I can't see a big deal for a Fowler or Span, or a major FA signing, when the CFer of the future is at AAA and destined to be a Red soon.

    LF, on the other hand, is empty right now with Ludwick as a FA. I'd think the "bigger" signing will be a LFer, where there is no Billy Hamilton on the horizon.

    As for Choo, one problem is he is a FA after next year; and a Boras client. He'd be my choice as a player, but it seems unlikely that the Reds could work this out - don't want to give up the farm for a rental.
    I tend to believe two things the Reds are saying, they want Aroldis to start and they think Billy is very close. So I see what you mean with CF going to Billy very soon. Outside of that box is also the plan to win now, and make sure you're not vulnerable. I think that's where the Reds could decide they want some security. Giving Victorino 2 years certainly writes off Billy for most of the year in Cincinnati, but a year in AAA isn't going to be a bad thing. In 2014, Victorino could be a 4th OF Heisey type role if Billy is ready for CF.

    That said, if they want to really platoon CF and do it right, I'm fine with a LF signing. Frazier could play 3b or LF, preferably one or the other. Choo would cost who knows what in prospects and would be gone in 2014, but he'd also likely yield a comp pick as well. I just don't know if the Reds are full and mature enough to feel comfortable dealing their promising talent. Much of that talent is also called "salary relief" in a few years.

  10. #39
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post

    That said, if they want to really platoon CF and do it right, I'm fine with a LF signing. Frazier could play 3b or LF, preferably one or the other. Choo would cost who knows what in prospects and would be gone in 2014, but he'd also likely yield a comp pick as well. I just don't know if the Reds are full and mature enough to feel comfortable dealing their promising talent. Much of that talent is also called "salary relief" in a few years.
    One possibility is to keep Stubbs/Heisey in CF pending Hamilton. But improve LF in a big way this off-season.

    The obvious would be Upton for LF, a signed player, an expensive player, but a great fit for the middle of the order.

    Bat Stubbs eighth, use Heisey against certain pitching, and move Billy Hamilton through AAA real quickly.

    Ultimately this gives the Reds the best ballclub. Two through six in the order could be Phillips, Votto, Upton, Bruce, Frazier.

    Then, add Billy Hamilton as lead off, and Cozart and the catcher 7th and 8th in either order.

    That lineup, particularly if Mesoraco hits, would be absolutely tremendous. Of course, until Hamilton is ready, the lineup would remain incomplete.

    Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, Upton, Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart, pitcher.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-13-2012 at 11:24 AM.

  11. #40
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    Re: One Name

    What if Hamilton is never ready next season during 2013?

    Alot is being assumed in this thread so far.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  12. #41
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    My point is I don't see the Reds going after a 3B'man and they/I view Todd as a better infielder than outfielder.
    I'm not high on Frazier as a defender at third base. I think eventually he would be just fine in LF.

    Problem is that good third sackers are hard to find. So it's likely Frazier will be the full time guy at third. Hopefully, he continues to improve there.

    But if the Reds could get another good third baseman, I'm ok with Frazier in LF. I think he has more potential to be an average or above LFer defensively than at third.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-13-2012 at 11:38 AM.

  13. #42
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    What if Hamilton is never ready next season during 2013?

    Alot is being assumed in this thread so far.
    Nothing is being assumed.

    There is a risk that CF may not be that productive this year. It is a transitional position.

    BUT - the identity of the CFer in the near future is known. BHamilton.

    Given that Billy is the man for CF soon, do you spend a fortune, or trade many prospects, for a CFer? I'm guessing no.

    Sure, there's a risk of an unproductive CF in 2013. But I can't see the justification for a big trade/signing of a Span or Fowler, parting with lots of prospects or money, for a guy who plays Billy Hamilton's position. Makes no sense to me.

    LF - there is no incumbent and there is nobody in the wings. The Reds will have to get somebody. Ludwick wants serious money apparently. That position may require a trade of prospects or a substantial contract.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-13-2012 at 11:40 AM.

  14. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nothing is being assumed.

    There is a risk that CF may not be that productive this year. It is a transitional position.

    BUT - the identity of the CFer in the near future is known. BHamilton.

    Given that Billy is the man for CF soon, do you spend a fortune, or trade many prospects, for a CFer? I'm guessing no.

    Sure, there's a risk of an unproductive CF in 2013. But I can't see the justification for a big trade/signing of a Span or Fowler, parting with lots of prospects or money, for a guy who plays Billy Hamilton's position. Makes no sense to me.

    LF - there is no incumbent and there is nobody in the wings. The Reds will have to get somebody. Ludwick wants serious money apparently. That position may require a trade of prospects or a substantial contract.
    Fowler or Span can always shift to LF when Hamilton is ready. The guy who must be replaced immediately is Stubbs. The offense the Reds are getting from CF is a full-blown crisis and completely unacceptable for a team that should be contending for a World Series title. Upgrading that position this winter has got to be the top priority.

    As Ludwick demonstrated last season, LF can be filled with discount options (and don't overlook Paul and Heisey, who could be part of a mix-and-match situation). If the Reds make a major deal for a guy like Justin Upton, that's fine, but they still have to address CF even if they do that.

    That's why a Fowler or Span would make some sense: short-term solution in CF, long-term in LF.

    Quick point on Frazier at 3B (from your previous post) - he only got 96 games at the position in the minors. It was one of the poorer developmental decisions the organization has made in recent years. Frazier was always going to make it and 3B was the position he was most likely to play. Now he's in the majors and still learning the position. I suspect he's got upside with the glove. It's just a matter of getting his reps in.
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  15. #44
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    When you look at the Reds resources, they don't have a CF ready for next year that can command that position during a pennant campaign. They need to fix that. With Votto, Frazier, Bruce in 3-4-5, not to mention Phillips, they have enough potential offensively and could use some more OBP while holding court defensively with Victorino. Meanwhile, preserving the pitching depth is a key benefit to adding a FA. If it means Heisey wins LF, then there's potential upside there as well. Heisey for Rolen, Frazier for Ludwick. Should even out offensively. Meanwhile CF is way better off and we have all our pitching depth.

  16. #45
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One Name

    Justin Upton
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