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Thread: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

  1. #91
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    If the Reds can not land a return of Ludwick, I would not mind the Reds talking to the Jays about Adam Lind. Signed for next year for $5 mil with reasonable TEAM options after that. He would bring a potential lefty power bat. Maybe consider him even if Ludwick comes back. I doubt the price would be high at all (nonprospect minor leaguer) as I assume the Jays would be looking for an upgrade and he spent a chunk of time in AAA last season.
    No thanks--he's a butcher in the field...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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  3. #92
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    The more I think about this, the more I think there's actually significant upside for the Marlins. Set aside for the moment that I don't actually believe that the Marlins are thinking this way.

    In a sim league I'm in, we have a $50MM salary cap and always have enough cash to meet it. Basically, every team spends $45-50MM every year. When you trade established players with big salaries for prospects, you don't just get the prospects. You get the salary cap space, which you can turn around and use the following year, adding just as much talent as you just gave up. But you get to keep the prospects.

    There are always new FA available who you can spend money on. There isn't a comparable ability to add young talent. So, for example, let's say that the Marlins turnaround and spend their savings in FA (assuming they could lure FA, which seems unlikely...)

    Code:
    Escobar: 	 $5
    Mathis:		 $1.5
    Cash: 		 $4
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Marlins:	$10.5
    
    
    Johnson: 	$13.75
    Buehrle: 	$11
    Reyes: 		$10
    Bonifacio: 	 $4 (arb)
    Buck: 		 $6
    Cash:		-$4
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Blue Jays:	$40.75
    
    
    Net: Blue Jays take on $30.25MM in salary from the Marlins in 2013
    How could they spend $30MM? Well, I just read an analysis of Jim Bowden's FA predictions from last year and it turns out that he was quite accurate. So let's use his figures for this offseason to look at some packages of players the Marlins could theoretically get. Since we're just talking 2013, I'm going to take 10% off of Bowden's AAV since contracts are usually back-loaded.


    Package 1
    Josh Hamilton: $20MM
    Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson: $10MM

    Package 2
    Zack Greinke: $18MM
    Fransisco Liriano: $4MM
    Joakim Soria: $4MM
    Ryan Ludwick: $5MM

    Package 3
    Brandon McCarthy: $9MM
    Shane Victorino: $8MM
    Melky Cabrera: $7MM
    Jonathan Broxton: $6MM

    Now, take any one of those packages and add it to haul the Marlins got. Now who made out the best? I think we sometimes fail to account for just how valuable money is. Sure, teams could spend more if they wanted to, in theory. But we know that they functionally operate within a self-imposed cap. Getting both significant young talent AND significant "cap space" is a pretty nice haul. Unless the expensive players you're giving up are signed significantly below market rate (you can certainly argue that Reyes is), the money is basically worth just as much as the players. The prospects then are the price the other team has to pay for the guarantee of being able to spend that money on those specific players.

    Considered differently, would the Blue Jays be a better team today if they had just signed Josh Hamilton and Dan Haren and kept all their young talent? Or Zack Greinke, Melky Cabrera and Ryan Madson?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-14-2012 at 01:22 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #93
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    The problem is Rick your not operating in a sim league. Your not operating based strictly on numbers. What I found interesting was the fact that Florida has no state income tax. So those guys, Reyes especially, played 81 games (more if they played Tampa) in a 0% income tax rate. He goes to Toronto Ontario where the top income bracket is close to 50%. So for half of their games they are losing 50% of their salary (granted in the US they would have to pay roughly 35% in fed income tax.) Still that is taking quite a pay cut.

    Taxes aside, why would someone sign with Florida? They do not offer no trade clauses, they give the player no location security. One year after spending big they jettison off most of their established players. A player like Josh Hamilton may not want to play in KC, may not even entertain the idea of signing with them, but if he inks a big contract with Miami he has no power of when and where they will trade him.

  5. #94
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The more I think about this, the more I think there's actually significant upside for the Marlins. Set aside for the moment that I don't actually believe that the Marlins are thinking this way.

    In a sim league I'm in, we have a $50MM salary cap and always have enough cash to meet it. Basically, every team spends $45-50MM every year. When you trade established players with big salaries for prospects, you don't just get the prospects. You get the salary cap space, which you can turn around and use the following year, adding just as much talent as you just gave up. But you get to keep the prospects.

    There are always new FA available who you can spend money on. There isn't a comparable ability to add young talent. So, for example, let's say that the Marlins turnaround and spend their savings in FA (assuming they could lure FA, which seems unlikely...)

    Code:
    Escobar: 	 $5
    Mathis:		 $1.5
    Cash: 		 $4
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Marlins:	$10.5
    
    
    Johnson: 	$13.75
    Buehrle: 	$11
    Reyes: 		$10
    Bonifacio: 	 $4 (arb)
    Buck: 		 $6
    Cash:		-$4
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Blue Jays:	$40.75
    
    
    Net: Blue Jays take on $30.25MM in salary from the Marlins in 2013
    How could they spend $30MM? Well, I just read an analysis of Jim Bowden's FA predictions from last year and it turns out that he was quite accurate. So let's use his figures for this offseason to look at some packages of players the Marlins could theoretically get. Since we're just talking 2013, I'm going to take 10% off of Bowden's AAV since contracts are usually front-loaded.


    Package 1
    Josh Hamilton: $20MM
    Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson: $10MM

    Package 2
    Zack Greinke: $18MM
    Fransisco Liriano: $4MM
    Joakim Soria: $4MM
    Ryan Ludwick: $5MM

    Package 3
    Brandon McCarthy: $9MM
    Shane Victorino: $8MM
    Melky Cabrera: $7MM
    Jonathan Broxton: $6MM

    Now, take any one of those packages and add it to haul the Marlins got. Now who made out the best? I think we sometimes fail to account for just how valuable money is. Sure, teams could spend more if they wanted to, in theory. But we know that they functionally operate within a self-imposed cap. Getting both significant young talent AND significant "cap space" is a pretty nice haul. Unless the expensive players you're giving up are signed significantly below market rate (you can certainly argue that Reyes is), the money is basically worth just as much as the players. The prospects then are the price the other team has to pay for the guarantee of being able to spend that money on those players.

    Considered differently, would the Blue Jays be a better team today if they had just signed Josh Hamilton and Dan Haren and kept all their young talent? Or Zack Greinke, Melky Cabrera and Ryan Madson?
    Bravo. I think that clearly outlines the quandary that teams can find themselves in when trying to improve. I think one x-factor is the fans response, which in a recent mlbtr article was stated by a gm to have some impact. I think the Votto case is a clear example. The psychology of retaining players is very benificial...for a while. Then they become KGjr 2008 or Arod 2012, etc. That aside, this move makes a ton of sense for the Blue Jays, as they're unloading 6 or 7 lotto tickets for 4 or 5 proven winners. And the Blue Jays fan base needs, wants, "deserves", a proven winner. I think the Baltimore effect, and the Boston effect, from the 2012 season is a major factor as well. The Blue Jays need to bust a move and they just did. And personally, I know little to nothing about the prospects going to Miami, but some of the peripherals seemed just okay. And from what I understand, the Jays have quite a few of their best prospects left. We could be seeing a Boston in 4th and 5th the next year or two...

  6. #95
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I stay away from EEI as a rule, but it would be fascinating to hear the rationale for why the Sox don't need two starting pitchers, a top SS and a guy like Bonifacio, all for the cost of Henry Owens and perhaps Bryce Brentz.

    I figure that John Farrell did an actual face-palm when he heard about this deal.
    Well, rationale number 1 was: Reyes isn't worth that contract, Buehrle would get destroyed in the AL East, and Johnson's only for the one year when the Red Sox have no chance to contend anyway.

    Unspoken rationale number 2 is that they know nothing about prospects, so the Red Sox comparable for what the Jays traded would have had to be something like Middlebrooks, Doubront, Lavarnway, Iglesias, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes. Although it's possible they've never heard of Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes, there is absolutely no chance they've ever heard of Owens or Brentz.

    And Farrell should have known better than anyone who he was going to work for when he decided to switch teams.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  7. #96
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    While that is true Rick, it remains to be seen if the Marlins will actually spend any sort of significant money in free agency.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  8. #97
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    While that is true Rick, it remains to be seen if the Marlins will actually spend any sort of significant money in free agency.
    Even if they wanted to, who is going to sign with them, particularly if you have a family? Oh, so if we don't put 2 million people in the seats or win a World Series, you are going to trade me after the season?

  9. #98
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    While that is true Rick, it remains to be seen if the Marlins will actually spend any sort of significant money in free agency.
    They aren't going to spend a dime.

    This is a classic business move... for the owner.

    He increases the worth and the stability of the franchise by securing a public financed venue, he strips the future cost of obligations to the most volatile aspect of owning a baseball team (talent) and he angers the fan base enough that they call for him to sell off the team.

    Which he'll likely do and all the aforementioned items end up making his profit more delightful to his bank account.

    Meanwhile the fans get kicked in the teeth by Loria for the second time in 10 years.

    Baseball isn't really the national past time, making money at the expense of others is.

  10. #99
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    Well, rationale number 1 was: Reyes isn't worth that contract, Buehrle would get destroyed in the AL East, and Johnson's only for the one year when the Red Sox have no chance to contend anyway.
    1) They're wrong about Reyes. Maybe he'll run into a wall at some point, but if you were to project who will be the best SS in baseball during the next three years, Reyes would be near the top of the list. That's worth a lot of money.

    2) Buehrle's pitched plenty vs. AL East and gone undestroyed by the experience (3.88 career ERA vs. the division).

    3) If the Sox had two quality starting pitchers and Reyes at SS, they'd be back in contention next year. The Jays literally just enacted what should have been the Red Sox's Plan A. A good year out of Johnson beats the heck out of John Lackey redux. If the Jays aren't in contention, they'll probably be able to move Johnson for better prospects than they gave up (BTW, I know you're just relaying what they were saying on the radio, so this is just me fuming at the walls).

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    Unspoken rationale number 2 is that they know nothing about prospects, so the Red Sox comparable for what the Jays traded would have had to be something like Middlebrooks, Doubront, Lavarnway, Iglesias, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes. Although it's possible they've never heard of Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes, there is absolutely no chance they've ever heard of Owens or Brentz.
    Good point. The ignorance of the average radio jock is depressingly high.

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    And Farrell should have known better than anyone who he was going to work for when he decided to switch teams.
    I don't think he did. There's been a bit of a sea change with the Sox the past couple of years. They've become the most constipated guys in the room.

    And I doubt he thought the Jays had a move like this in them. Surely he was thinking the Sox were the team more likely to pull the trigger on a blockbuster. You've got to figure a guy with Farrell's pitching coach background would be salivating over the prospect of Johnson and Buehrle in his rotation.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #100
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The more I think about this, the more I think there's actually significant upside for the Marlins. Set aside for the moment that I don't actually believe that the Marlins are thinking this way.
    An actual email I got from a friend who assesses these things for a living:

    You are missing a key point. If you have good players, they are taking up roster spots and money that can be allocated to...GOOD PLAYERS!

    What would you rather have: Good players or the hope of new, different good players?! That's change I can believe in.

    Now, signing Hamilton, Greinke, and trading for King Felix is on the table!


    And then the follow up:

    But watch this: If I win with Hamilton, Greinke, and Felix, I'm a genius. If they suck and I dump them, I'm a genius because WE'RE GETTING MIKE TROUT!

    It's endless bait and switch. The best part is they don't even have to switch. They only have to create the perception that they could switch in order to get people-in-the-know bobbleheading about how smart they are.

    And we should all pay a moment of respect to the SteelSD's classic Redszone PayFlex post, which pretty much skewered the insanity of what the Marlins just did.
    Last edited by M2; 11-14-2012 at 12:55 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #101
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    An actual email I got from a friend who assesses these things for a living:

    You are missing a key point. If you have good players, they are taking up roster spots and money that can be allocated to...GOOD PLAYERS!

    What would you rather have: Good players or the hope of new, different good players?! That's change I can believe in.

    Now, signing Hamilton, Greinke, and trading for King Felix is on the table!


    And then the follow up:

    But watch this: If I win with Hamilton, Greinke, and Felix, I'm a genius. If they suck and I dump them, I'm a genius because WE'RE GETTING MIKE TROUT!

    It's endless bait and switch. The best part is they don't even have to switch. They only have to create the perception that they could switch in order to get people-in-the-know bobbleheading about how smart they are.

    And we should all pay a moment of respect to the SteelSD's classic Redszone PayFlex post, which pretty much skewered the insanity of what the Marlins just did.
    Mr Bracy

  13. #102
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    While that is true Rick, it remains to be seen if the Marlins will actually spend any sort of significant money in free agency.
    Hence my caveat up front. I'd be shocked if they spent even half of their savings. Loria is basically saying, "Look, we gave it the old college try. We can't compete nor be profitable by signing big name players. This can only work if we're cheap."
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #103
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Hence my caveat up front. I'd be shocked if they spent even half of their savings. Loria is basically saying, "Look, we gave it the old college try. We can't compete nor be profitable by signing big name players. This can only work if we're cheap."
    Don't forget the kicker. "But thanks for building me that shiny new ballpark! "
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #104
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Blue Jays Acquiring J.Reyes, J.Johnson and M.Buerhle

    The Marlins aren't trading Mike Stanton. He's the one player they can keep for relatively cheap for a few more years and still be used to draw some fans to the park.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #105
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The Marlins aren't trading Mike Stanton. He's the one player they can keep for relatively cheap for a few more years and still be used to draw some fans to the park.
    Yep, he ain't hurting the owners bottom line


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