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Thread: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    http://bbwaa.com/12-nl-mvp/

    Reds finish 10th (Bruce), 12th (Chapman), 13th (Phillips) and 14th (Votto).
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Wow. Honestly that's a pretty impressive showing by the Reds.

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Votto, despite being out with injuries so much, actually led all MLB hitters in WPA. He just doesn't make that many outs.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Votto, despite being out with injuries so much, actually led all MLB hitters in WPA. He just doesn't make that many outs.
    *busts out his English-to-Sabrespeak dictionary*

    WPA means Wins Probability Added. Knowing the acronym helps some, but for the most part I remain in the dark.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    *busts out his English-to-Sabrespeak dictionary*

    WPA means Wins Probability Added. Knowing the acronym helps some, but for the most part I remain in the dark.
    Read about it here, it's very interesting.

    Key point:

    For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Raysí win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobristís WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his teamís win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 Ė .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    I actually was reading about it Nate. Thanks though. I only posted because it might be a good idea to not just throw in acronyms that aren't that commonly known outside the sabre-circle. Just a suggestion.

    And upon a cursory glance thus far, it's quite impressive that Joey led the league in this stat especially since it's a counting stat basically.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I actually was reading about it Nate. Thanks though. I only posted because it might be a good idea to not just throw in acronyms that aren't that commonly known outside the sabre-circle. Just a suggestion.

    And upon a cursory glance thus far, it's quite impressive that Joey led the league in this stat especially since it's a counting stat basically.
    Sorry. Guilty as charged. Yeah, its a counting stat and the MVP candidates in a given year are normally at the top of the leader board.

    FWIW Trout was top in the AL, but Cabrera wasn't far back.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    From a simple raw counting standpoint, Joey Votto reached base 243 times last year, 23rd in MLB. He did that in 475 plate appearances. Of the people above him on the list, the next lowest PA total was Buster Posey, with 610 -- 135 more plate appearances than Votto. More than half of the people who reached base more times had at least 200 more plate appearances than Votto did. It's hard to overstate how impressive his OBP was.

    If Votto kept up his production over the ~200 PA that he missed because of the injury, he would have have led the NL in WAR (8.4 fWAR compared to Posey's 8.0, 8.0 brWAR to Posey's 7.2). When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012. He just didn't play enough.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-16-2012 at 11:57 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012.
    I assume you are excluding all the Cardinals from that statement, especially "Mr. Clutch", Dan Descalso?.

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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    2 first place votes for Yadier. What were those votes based on: the lower BA? the fewer HR's and RBI? the lack of a ring?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  12. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    2 first place votes for Yadier. What were those votes based on: the lower BA? the fewer HR's and RBI? the lack of a ring?
    Votes are before the playoffs, thus he had a ring

    I bet it was the awesome neck tat

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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Votes are before the playoffs, thus he had a ring

    I bet it was the awesome neck tat
    Or the pitch-framing Magick!
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Member GADawg's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    i wish i could like Buster Posey but all the to do from Sabean and the Giants(and Posey I suppose as well) over him getting run over at the plate(like real catchers do from time to time)has turned me against him.....did I say "to do"? I meant whining

  15. #14
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    From a simple raw counting standpoint, Joey Votto reached base 243 times last year, 23rd in MLB. He did that in 475 plate appearances. Of the people above him on the list, the next lowest PA total was Buster Posey, with 610 -- 135 more plate appearances than Votto. More than half of the people who reached base more times had at least 200 more plate appearances than Votto did. It's hard to overstate how impressive his OBP was.

    If Votto kept up his production over the ~200 PA that he missed because of the injury, he would have have led the NL in WAR (8.4 fWAR compared to Posey's 8.0, 8.0 brWAR to Posey's 7.2). When he played, Votto was the best player in the NL in 2012. He just didn't play enough.
    Wow.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: Buster Posey wins NL MVP

    If|Votto had played 150 games at thew same level of production as he did in his other games, he would have been a shoe in for the MVP.

    Once McCutheon fell off the table and the Brewers failed to contend, there went Votto's only competition.

    Posey was a deserving winner, but he was 4th until the other events happened.


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