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Thread: Justin Upton A Red?

  1. #31
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    You were comparong them. You were comparing their strikeout percentages to hamiltons to show that it wasnt a big deal. I was demonstrating that it actually is a bigger deal beacause hamilton is not a run producer like all the names you listed except bourn and bourn's career numbers (if you go to baseball reference) are truly uninspiring. I know thats not what this thread is about but serioualy all anyone has to do is look at his stats and youll see that any team who.offers him more than 8 mil a yr max is crazy.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam View Post
    You were comparong them. You were comparing their strikeout percentages to hamiltons to show that it wasnt a big deal. I was demonstrating that it actually is a bigger deal beacause hamilton is not a run producer like all the names you listed except bourn and bourn's career numbers (if you go to baseball reference) are truly uninspiring. I know thats not what this thread is about but serioualy all anyone has to do is look at his stats and youll see that any team who.offers him more than 8 mil a yr max is crazy.
    I compared one statistic among leadoff hitters in response to this statement "That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.". There was no discussion about run production or player types. I listed some above average leadoff hitters who had rates similar to Hamilton. That is all. I was not comparing Hamilton to Trout, Bourn, Jackson, Fowler, Yount or Biggio.

    I would like to point something out about Hamilton since this is not going away. Hamilton is a right handed hitter. When he was drafted, the Reds suggested he start switch hitting. As a switch hitter a strong majority of your ABs come as a left handed hitter. This doesn't excuse his K rate but it helps to explain it. He's learning on the job.

    Hamilton is certainly older than you would normally like for a top prospect to be at the same stage of development. He's not a can't miss superstar prospect. He should not be untouchable under all circumstances. However, there are things about him that you can't deny. He has been getting on base at a 40% clip. Scouts say he has the fastest home to first they have ever timed. Anthony Gose, who is in the discussion for fastest player in the MLB right now said "if I'm an 80 (on the scouts scale of 20-80 in speed), then Hamilton's a 100". We aren't talking about a speedy prospect, we may be talking about a prospect with speed that could transcend baseball. When a prospect has a tool like that, you'd like to do all you can to see it through in your organization.

  4. #33
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    I believe you are using the incorrect formula for K%. It should be K's divided by Plate Appearances. I think you are using K's divided by At-Bats. Not a big deal but that's why my numbers are lower.
    You are correct. I see now we were using different methods to calculate strikeout %. The method I was using (relying on ABs) is, I think, the traditional method - and still used by many baseball statistic sites. However, I believe the method you used (relying on PAs) is a better measure. Thanks, I learned something. I guess now I understand that if comparing strikout % from different sources, I need to make sure how it was calculated - otherwise it's not an accurate comparison.

  5. #34
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    You are correct. I see now we were using different methods to calculate strikeout %. The method I was using (relying on ABs) is, I think, the traditional method - and still used by many baseball statistic sites. However, I believe the method you used (relying on PAs) is a better measure. Thanks, I learned something. I guess now I understand that if comparing strikout % from different sources, I need to make sure how it was calculated - otherwise it's not an accurate comparison.
    I was not aware of the method relying on ABs. I've learned something myself. So I'll have to be alert myself when I see K% reported on different sites.

    FYI. I was using fangraphs for that K%. I like the PA method as well. I feel it is a better indicator of performance because it accounts for walks.

  6. #35
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    Somehow this has devolved into a discussion of Hamilton's worth as a prospect. Is he overhyped? Yes, probably. Is he untouchable? No, he should be available in the right deal. But would Upton be that "right deal?". I don't really think so. Obviously you do. Now if it's Hamilton for Upton straight up? That's a different story, but Arizona is going to want more than one guy for Upton, probably more like 3-4.

    I'm only willing to deal packages including top prospects for guys who are clear difference makers and are under team control for a while for a reasonable amount of money. Latos was that guy. I'm not so sure that Upton is. His contract isn't outlandish, but it's not cheap. Regardless of what you think of him as a player, that hurts his trade value a bit, period.
    This is the right answer but Im not sure there are many of those guys out there who are teams that would be willing to trade.

  7. #36
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam View Post
    The main point of wat i was saying is that many people on this board have elevated hamilton to demi god status. To a point where youd only give him up for for someone like miguel cabrera or trout or harper and hes just not that kind of prospect.

    Honestly based the numbers he has put up to this point in the minors he is almost the exact same player as dee gordon. Their numbers are honestly eerily similar. and so are there body types. The difference between the two is that hamilton has stolen more bases but also struck out alot more. and Gordon actually had more total bases even though he only stole about half as many. Now, would you have said the dodgers were crazy for trading dee gordon for upton if they did? No, you would call it a steal.

    Lastly anyone who thinks hamilton is going to steal bases like that off major league pitchers an catchers is crazy. Ill give him between 40 and 60 bags a year till he is 30 but he isnt rickey henderson. He is a good player that every organization wants but he isn't bryce harper
    All good points. However two counterpoints.

    First, if you compare Hamilton to Gordon based on where there were at the same age, Hamilton blows Gordon away. Career minor league numbers can be misleading. The best way to evaluate a minor leaguer is to watch his progression. As he moves up and gets older does he eventually improve? That clearly was the case with Hamilton, and not so much with Gordon.

    I can understand why someone who hasn't seen Hamilton play would be willing to trade him. However, most of us who live around Cincinnati have seen him play in Dayton, and that makes a huge difference in evaluating him.

    I personally have seen him turn a one hopper to the left field wall into a stand up inside the park homerun, with no misplays by the defense.

    I have seen him turn numerous bunts into triples as the defense panics to get him out at first.

    I have seen numerous cleanly fielded, routine groundballs to SS turn into easy singles for Hamilton, with perfect throws.

    Others have seen him score from second after tagging on a infield pop up.

    Others have seen him score from second on groundball back to the pitcher.

    Others have seen him, as a SS, catch a flyball to leftfield, that the leftfielder lost in the lights... just a few feet from the warning track.

    And none of these have anything to do with stealing bases.

    His speed isn't just great, it's one of a kind, game changing speed. Literally all groundballs to the infield are possible hits, with his speed. No one else in my lifetime has ever been that fast.

    He also has an outstanding work ethic, dedication to the game, baseball smarts, and athleticism that will likely help him improve as continues to play.

    I guarantee you that if you saw him play, you would change your opinion of him.

  8. #37
    Below the Mendoza line Larry Largen's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    It looks like Upton will be a phillie soon. Without a big trade the Reds aren't going to make a big splash on he free agent market.
    Starring out the window, waiting for spring.

  9. #38
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    All good points. However two counterpoints.

    First, if you compare Hamilton to Gordon based on where there were at the same age, Hamilton blows Gordon away. Career minor league numbers can be misleading. The best way to evaluate a minor leaguer is to watch his progression. As he moves up and gets older does he eventually improve? That clearly was the case with Hamilton, and not so much with Gordon.

    I can understand why someone who hasn't seen Hamiltaon play would be willing to trade him. However, most of us who live around Cincinnati have seen him play in Dayton, and that makes a huge difference in evaluating him.

    I personally have seen him turn a one hopper to the left field wall into a stand up inside the park homerun, with no misplays by the defense.

    I have seen him turn numerous bunts into triples as the defense panics to get him out at first.

    I have seen numerous cleanly fielded, routine groundballs to SS turn into easy singles for Hamilton, with perfect throws.

    Others have seen him score from second after tagging on a infield pop up.

    Others have seen him score from second on groundball back to the pitcher.

    Others have seen him, as a SS, catch a flyball to leftfield, that the leftfielder lost in the lights... just a few feet from the warning track.

    And none of these have anything to do with stealing bases.

    His speed isn't just great, it's one of a kind, game changing speed. Literally all groundballs to the infield are possible hits, with his speed. No one else in my lifetime has ever been that fast.

    He also has an outstanding work ethic, dedication to the game, baseball smarts, and athleticism that will likely help him improve as continues to play.

    I guarantee you that if you saw him play, you would change your opinion of him.
    I have said repeatedly that hamilton is a very good prospect that every team would want.

    But, everyone is expendable at thr right price. If people here dont think tradin hamilton for upton is or was a good idea then that is fine. I personally would move hamilton who as of now is a two tool player for a proven 5 tool player that is only three years older. Just because that opinion isn't popular on a red's board doesn't make it radical.

  10. #39
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam View Post
    I have said repeatedly that hamilton is a very good prospect that every team would want.

    But, everyone is expendable at thr right price. If people here dont think tradin hamilton for upton is or was a good idea then that is fine. I personally would move hamilton who as of now is a two tool player for a proven 5 tool player that is only three years older. Just because that opinion isn't popular on a red's board doesn't make it radical.
    Upton is a five tool player that has been basically a league average player most of his career, including his last season, who will be getting paid like an all-star for the next three years.

    Hamilton projects to be at least league average, and will be paid close to league minimum over those same three years, plus three more years of team control.

    Even of Hamilton turns into a Stubbs clone, I'd still rather have that than Upton for $40M. And that doesn't even take Upton's attitude issues into account.

    Right now, if the Reds were willing to spend $40M over the next three years, they could easily get Swisher, Youk, Bourn, Pegan or even Justin's brother B.J. for less money and no prospects.

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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    Batting .311 with a .410 OBP & stealing a minor league record 155 bases would be a sign of a player not doing well for me let me tell you. Yes he batted .283 in AA but also got on base over 40% of the time.

    The Blue Jays didn't give up Gose, d'Arnaud, or Lawrie to obtain 90% of the Marlins payroll. So the Reds shouldn't need to deal their top prospect to obtain a player that the DBacks have been saying is available for 2 seasons now. I never said that it was all the players included. I'd include Corcino with Leake, Didi, & Stubbs. That is a solid return for a team who would want major league ready players along with some soon to be ready talent. Now 2-3 weeks from now when Upton is dealt for a package similar to Didi & Corcino you guys will be all up in arms that the Reds didn't pull the trigger. Arizona will not get as much as some think as he is soon to make extra money to go along with his 17 HRs and around 70 RBIs.
    Thankyou for this post... I don't have to add anything other that, yeah... The Blue Jays didn't give up their best, and the Nationals didn't give up Harper to get Gonzalez...

    Leake, Didi/Cozart, and 2 prospects probably get this done... I mean, Arizona wants relief help every day so send them anyone other than Chapman...

    Also, you all know Stanton is going to be available sooner than later, sooner because the owner down there is an idiot and gets rid of anyone who criticizes him, so if I were the Reds, I would Ship Hamilton + to Miami for Stanton...

  12. #41
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    I would be hesitant to trade Hamilton or any major prospect for Upton. He just had a huge slump last year. He was still a good above average player but not one to give up a prospect for. His slugging%, wOBA, and wRC+ were down so his batting was worse, but his fielding also fell off big time. If Ludwick is gone which would make sense because he will get overpaid for a freakishly overachieving season, the Reds will have to make a gamble for left field for 2013 whether that's a trade or hoping for a breakout season by a young player.

  13. #42
    Just A Couple Johnny's OneManBand's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Stanton could be potentially gone as well. They recently signed Juan Pierre and with the emergence of Ruggiano an potential of LoMo they could look to bolster other areas.

    I still like the match up with Arizona but I would love an extra 30 HRs added to the line up!

  14. #43
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Please tell me you'd all get behind moving Hamilton for Stanton?

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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam View Post
    Please tell me you'd all get behind moving Hamilton for Stanton?
    I think that's one we can all get behind.

  16. #45
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    Re: Justin Upton A Red?

    Quote Originally Posted by OneManBand View Post
    Stanton could be potentially gone as well. They recently signed Juan Pierre and with the emergence of Ruggiano an potential of LoMo they could look to bolster other areas.

    I still like the match up with Arizona but I would love an extra 30 HRs added to the line up!
    Stanton would be worth anything the Reds could offer for him. He had a slugging% of .600 AND a wOBA over .400. That is absurd. Only 2012 & 2010 Miguel Cabrera, 2011 & 2010 Jose Bautista, 2010 Josh Hamilton, and 2010 Joey Votto have done that in the past 3 years. I know he is a right fielder but you would sacrifice some fielding for that hitting. If he's traded, expect a team to give up everything to get him. A theoretical lineup with Votto-Stanton-Bruce would be a nightmare for pitchers. Stanton would hit 50 home runs in GABP.


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