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Thread: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

  1. #16
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    He Ops'ed .635.....which means it wasn't based on lighting up the league. I think that in itself is encouraging.
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  3. #17
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    He Ops'ed .635.....which means it wasn't based on lighting up the league. I think that in itself is encouraging.
    I'm not following what is encouraging about a .635 OPS.
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    He Ops'ed .635.....which means it wasn't based on lighting up the league. I think that in itself is encouraging.
    I think Hamilton's stats are kinda irrelevant, like many top prospects. Like guys like Trout, Harper, Rizzo, Alonso and so many others, it takes watching him play to fully appreciate how good he is. Everyone who sees him, sees a future major leaguer. His stats are going to fluxuate as he learns, matures and gets better, so they don't tell us nearly as just watching him play. That tells us that he's special.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I think Hamilton's stats are kinda irrelevant, like many top prospects. Like guys like Trout, Harper, Rizzo, Alonso and so many others, it takes watching him play to fully appreciate how good he is. Everyone who sees him, sees a future major leaguer. His stats are going to fluxuate as he learns, matures and gets better, so they don't tell us nearly as just watching him play. That tells us that he's special.
    Well, they may be in this case due to sample size, but I don't think his minor league history is irrelevant. I'd say making any bold predictions based on AFL play is not particularly relevant.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I think Hamilton's stats are kinda irrelevant, like many top prospects. Like guys like Trout, Harper, Rizzo, Alonso and so many others, it takes watching him play to fully appreciate how good he is. Everyone who sees him, sees a future major leaguer. His stats are going to fluxuate as he learns, matures and gets better, so they don't tell us nearly as just watching him play. That tells us that he's special.
    Pre-cisely.
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  7. #21
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I'd say making any bold predictions based on AFL play is not particularly relevant.
    Correct. Mike Trout was TERRIBLE last season in the AFL. Had a 7-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Didn't hit. Just brutal. This year, he was easily the best player in baseball.

    And no, I am in no way comparing Hamilton to Trout. Just that stats, particularly when you get to November, in a small sample size, mean very little.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    In a given year, the MLB leader in baserunning runs adds about 10-12 runs on the bases. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton add 15+ runs. If he plays plus defense and puts up a .270/.330/.350 line, that's something like 5 wins.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    In a given year, the MLB leader in baserunning runs adds about 10-12 runs on the bases. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton add 15+ runs. If he plays plus defense and puts up a .270/.330/.350 line, that's something like 5 wins.
    Hamilton may be the guy who causes the numbers community to fall deeply in love with the running game. Speed may even become the new hip thing, especially because younger players tend to be faster and they make less money (e.g. don't pay for Grandpa Twentyhomers when Swifty McZoom in AAA can generate more value with his legs).
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Wondering also if we are getting to the tipping point with catchers not being able to throw -from what i understand the 1950's were full of catchers who could not throw real well, but it didn't matter -no one attempted to take advantage of this limitation. Maury Wills comes along and exposes it and all the sudden catcher's defense becomes important part of what is needed. Kind of cool how the games changes.

  11. #25
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    As long as you walk lots the K's won't matter.

    Many players K alot because they work the count deep and also walk tons. Dunn comes to mind.

    Stubbs just seems to K. Hamilton is, I believe, trying to walk lots to take advantage of his speed.
    I've been saying the same thing for years. A 2-1 K-BB ratio or better to me indicates a player that's going to be successful.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  12. #26
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    I'd make him the starting CFer next season and pay Votto additional money to mentor Hamilton's plate discipline/hitting.
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    I've been saying the same thing for years. A 2-1 K-BB ratio or better to me indicates a player that's going to be successful.
    I was sort of thinking the same thing. Strikeouts, at least in my eyes, are the one stat that isn't really dependent on the league that player is in. It's a sign of approach, which translates at all levels. It gives me hope that a guy like Oscar Tavera (10.5% K rate) will have a measure of success in the big leagues. I think a guy with a low K rate will at the very least project to be a middle of the road big league player.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Make a list of the worst hitters ever and you will find it is also a list of guys with low K rates. Then go to the league SLG leaders in any given years and you'll see Ks aplenty.
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  15. #29
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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Make a list of the worst hitters ever and you will find it is also a list of guys with low K rates. Then go to the league SLG leaders in any given years and you'll see Ks aplenty.
    Once you hit the pros, production is all that matters. In the minors though, K's are a huge red flag IMO.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Once you hit the pros, production is all that matters. In the minors though, K's are a huge red flag IMO.
    Meh.

    Guys who strikeout in the majors also strikeout in the minors. The days of Joe DiMaggio types who are crazy productive and never strikeout are long gone. Those guys don't exist anymore.

    That said, I will agree that K's are a mildly useful player evaluation tool. If a guy is putting up fantastic batting averages in the minors AND strikes out a ton, that is definitely an indicator that he might not be able to replicate his success in the majors. Of course, batting average isn't terribly important in the grand scheme of things, so the predictive value of K's in regards to BA is limited. However, it does become more important if the player in question is strongly BA dependent (no power or walks).

    How does this apply to Billy Hamilton? Not much IMO. For one, Billy's strikeout rate is decent. He's not particularly difficult to strikeout, but he's not particularly easy to strikeout either. He's also not a completely BA dependent hitter. He delivers 30-40 XBH per season and has a very good walk rate. I know some folks think those walks will disappear once he hits the majors, but I'm not so sure. Almost all of the walk-averse slap hitting speedsters whose I have looked up were just as walk-averse in the minor leagues. Their walks didn't disappear as major league pitchers challenged them. They never walked. As long as Hamilton maintains his current approach at the plate, I think his walk rate will carry over to the big leagues.


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