Meh. If I'm the Reds, I let trade proposals come to me and let the other teams overpay. The Reds have no reason to do anything at this point.
They signed Broxton to move Chapman to the rotation, hoping to improve the team. I actually think it weakens the team, slightly. Chapman is unproven as a starter and surely won't pitch a whole season as one. Broxton isn't Chapman, in terms of a Closer. So both positions took a hit.
The rest of the bullpen is most likely set with hopefully a healthy Masset, Marshall, Hoover, Arredondo, Simon(?), Ondrusek, and possibly Cingrani as a lefthanded specialist. Really not much different than last year other than a healthier Masset hopefully and Cingrani taking Bray's spot, and Bray really was hurt all season. Oops, forgot LeCure. He was key in the playoffs. Plenty of options to sort it all out.
Plenty of starting pitch options/depth unless someone gets traded.
Lineup is the same if they re-sign Ludwick.
I'd be fine standing pat if the above happened. I wouldn't mind seeing Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino, Gregorius, and some of the A and AA guys progress this season, such as Stephenson, Lutz, etc. I think they could answer alot of questions in 2013.
Only if an opposing team is willing to knock our socks off with a trade proposal, would I consider it. No need to reach and overpay for something at this point.
I understand the win now mode. But I still see some solutions potentially headed our way, such as Hamilton in CF if he proves worthy.
"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
If you're worried about overworking Chapman, start Cingrani, Corcino, Redmond, or another AAAA lifer. Put the other guys on strict five day rotation and skip Chapman whenever it's needed.
You don't need Leake as an emergency starter when he could be packaged for a better OF option than Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs.
I'd think Boston could be open to a blockbuster deal of Leake, Arredondo, Massett (to balance out the salaries), and the Reds' choice of Gregorius or Cozart for Jacoby Ellsbury and Bryce Brentz.
"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher
I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:
1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.
2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.
3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.
4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.
5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.
I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.
Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.
Next moves IMO
DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.
You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.
Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.
This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.
Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.
Last edited by Kc61; 11-28-2012 at 10:11 PM.
Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
If it turns out that Corcino is worth more on the market than Leake, then that's a way to go. They may even decide to trade Bailey to upgrade the outfield, although that presumably would be a major deal, for a higher echelon outfielder.
It's not a matter of trading Leake, per se. It's just that I don't see them acquiring anyone of value for the outfield without parting with a pitcher or pitching prospect of value. That's where the Reds' trading depth lies.
As I've said elsewhere, I fully expect one or two of Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, Arroyo, or Bailey to be traded this off-season. Hopefully not Stephenson. To get a good return, I think that's the reality of the situation.
If they can get by trading Lotzkar and other lesser prospects, great, I just find it hard to believe that will be enough.
Last edited by Kc61; 11-29-2012 at 07:52 AM.
My gut feeling tells me we'll sign Ludwick, extend a few players, bring Rolen back and that's it. I think we'll bide our time in center with Stubbs/Heisey and Phillips leading off. I think we'll fill the LH bullpen slot with Cingrani (although I'd prefer him stay a starter until it's clear he doesn't have it). Other than that...standing pat. Not my preference, but it's what I think will happen.
Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 11-29-2012 at 08:06 AM.
99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
Bailey CYA winner
Hamilton ROY & GG
I agree. It'll be either a starter, a SS, or both. I think the Twins are best match, and I could see them trying to bring back Span or Willingham (preferably Willingham, IMO, who will cost more).I would guess one of the SS (likely DiDi) is/will be the other half of the bait.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
I think the list you mentioned of Lotzkar, Vidal, Corcino, Lamarre, Heisey, AND Leake would all cobble together a really nice player in return. The Marshall trade will tell us as much. He was the best LHRP in baseball and we got him for Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes.
FWIW, in your plan I would also look at acquiring a LHRP (again, but for less this time) to keep Cingrani in the rotation in AAA where some time there to work on his secondary stuff is needed. Like Chapman, we have to know if he can do it.
So a platoon 3b, a LHRP, and/or a platoon CF would all be nice. And there are enough pieces to get them all. I think Leake is much more valuable than Wood, for example.
edit: oops, I didn't mean to include Leake in trades, my point was supposed to be he is valuable enough to bring some substance back, but probably not for the rotation, which should be kept strong.
Last edited by mdccclxix; 11-29-2012 at 08:59 AM.
I think you could get quality back for such a package.
And I agree that Willingham would be a good addition to the Reds. Maybe Reds also get somebody to help fill a bench spot in such a deal, and/or a prospect from the lower minor leagues.
Trade for Meyers, offer Leake and Stubbs plus one of Corcino or Cingrani...
Sign Victorino, bring back Rolen giving Meyers, Frazier, and Rolen 2 spots for 3 players...
What this does is give the Reds a lot of payroll flexibility into the future and allows them to lock up Latos, Baily, and Cueto for the next 5 to 7 years... Not the best starting trio in the major, but the top 5... What would be the cost on this?
Extend Bruce with the Meyers savings....He is just now coming into his own and will be a 30/100 guy for the next 6 to 8 years...
Hamilton will be the Cf in 2014 and will be under control along with Meyers...