Upton will test the theory that things just kind of work out for the Braves regardless of whether they should.
Upton will test the theory that things just kind of work out for the Braves regardless of whether they should.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
the rich just keep getting richer!!
I can spell,I just can't type!!
For that cash they can have him. One of the most over-rated guys in the league in my view.
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Barry On Baseball Also blogging at Banished to the Pen.
Yeah, I had the same thought when I saw what Longoria signed for. I was shocked he accepted so much less than he could have probably obtained later if he went to free agency.Originally Posted by dougdirt
"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."
Some teams and players are better/worse at bargining or more or less obsessed with money. Sometimes its the number of years. Sometimes its about getting the biggest contract ever as a sign of superiority. Sometimes its about comfort with the team. Sometimes its about winning. Closer to home. Desperation. Wild hatched schemes. Out bidding a rival team. A pushy agent. A pending divorce. Who knows! But the Reds just got a good deal from Broxton, so I think to each their own.
Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Stubbs is sliding off a cliff it looks like. Upton did just hit a bunch of HR, which is all I can see that's better about him. Defensively, I'd take Stubbs each time.
Comment from Rowland's Office (a RZ type of site for Braves fans)... "the most expensive B.J. in history".
Okay, now THAT'S funny. :O)
They are the same age and have a very similar skill set, but there are key differences between them in terms of performance:
- Upton walks a little more and strikes out a little less (enough in combination to be a reasonably significant difference)
- Upton has never relied on a high BABIP. Stubbs relies on a high BABIP to keep his average & OBP in the acceptable range. Think of BABIP as the third leg on the OBP stool along with walk and strikeout rates. Upton's stool is balanced; Stubbs' isn't.
- Stubbs' plus power (ISO) basically disappeared in 2010 & 2011. Upton has consistently hit for plus power. On a not unrelated note, Stubbs has turned in to an extreme ground ball hitter.
In short, I think they are extremely similar players. However, the Reds, terrified of Stubbs' strikeout rate and hoping to boost his AVG/OBP, have pushed him to become more aggressive and ground-ball oriented. In my judgment, this was a poor decision, because it didn't fundamentally change his skill set, it just made less efficient use of it. He sacrificed a big part of his power, hurting his BABIP (BABIP is driven by hard contact as much, if not moreso than, speed) while adding pressure/stress. In other words, we shouldn't confuse Stubbs' production with his skill set. They're obviously related, but I think his production is being hampered by an approach that doesn't make good use of his skills. His speed is awesome, but, like Upton (and most hitters) his power is a much bigger driver of his production at the plateCode:STUBBS Age PA BB% K% ISO BABIP GB/FB LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ HR SB 2010 25 583 9% 29% .189 .330 1.09 16% .255 .329 .444 .338 105 22 30 2011 26 681 9% 30% .121 .343 1.42 20% .243 .321 .364 .308 90 15 40 2012 27 544 8% 31% .120 .290 1.53 15% .213 .277 .333 .271 64 14 30 UPTON Age PA BB% K% ISO BABIP GB/FB LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ HR SB 2010 25 610 11% 27% .187 .304 0.91 17% .237 .322 .424 .328 107 18 42 2011 26 640 11% 25% .186 .298 1.00 18% .243 .331 .429 .333 113 23 36 2012 27 633 7% 27% .208 .294 0.98 19% .246 .298 .454 .323 107 28 31
By contrast, the Rays have let Upton do what comes naturally to him. The big question, in my mind, is what happened to his walk rate in 2012? Everything else remained the same, so how did he lose 1/3 of his walks? I'd offer a theory, but I haven't really followed him that closely.
I hypothesize that if Sutbbs he were to go back to his previous approach, his power production would come back, boosting both his BABIP and ISO. However, at this point, that may be impossible as a Red. He knows that they want/expect him to be more contact oriented and I'm not sure that can be undone. However, if the Reds were to trade Stubbs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him put up numbers comparable to Upton moving forward.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-29-2012 at 01:30 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.
I don't know how explicit it was from management vs. Stubbs simply coming to the conclusion on his own, but it is undeniable that he started to hit many more grounders in 2011. There was certainly plenty of talk about wanting Stubbs to take advantage of his speed. Again, I don't know if that ever took the form of a dictate, but I don't think its a coincidence either.
So taking the Reds management out of it, I think Sutbbs would produce more like Upton if he prioritized driving the ball over finding ways to make use of his legs.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
That joke alone was worth 75 million.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I think I have to agree. I've had more faith in Stubbs than most posters, but I think it's more complicated than the Reds trying to force him to be a leadoff guy.
I think the league adjusted to him.
Stubbs had that great surge at the end of 2010, and has had flashes occasionally for a couple of days, but I think the league has figured him out.
That said, Stubbs is supposedly working with a personal batting coach over the winter.. Maybe he'll be able to adjust over the winter.. I'm sure he and the Reds know the weaknesses to address.
Last edited by REDREAD; 11-29-2012 at 02:38 PM.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I think one of the main differences is the success Upton had at an early age. In 2007 and 2008, while Stubbs was still in the minors, Upton put up 4.5 and 5.0-WAR seasons. People look at that and think if he was that good, that young, he could be a superstar as he comes into his prime.
Granted, I don't know if that line of thinking is really reasonable. (I know I wouldn't want the Reds FO evaluating players based on what they did 4-5 years ago.) Nonetheless, I think that's the perception, and that gives Upton over Stubbs when comparing their value.
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