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Thread: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Upton will test the theory that things just kind of work out for the Braves regardless of whether they should.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #17
    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    the rich just keep getting richer!!
    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  4. #18
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    For that cash they can have him. One of the most over-rated guys in the league in my view.

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  5. #19
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You think Votto left money on the table..... did you see how little money Evan Longoria just signed for his extension? I know that he has money for his family for generations with what he signed, but he probably could have gotten 50% more.
    Yeah, I had the same thought when I saw what Longoria signed for. I was shocked he accepted so much less than he could have probably obtained later if he went to free agency.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  6. #20
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Some teams and players are better/worse at bargining or more or less obsessed with money. Sometimes its the number of years. Sometimes its about getting the biggest contract ever as a sign of superiority. Sometimes its about comfort with the team. Sometimes its about winning. Closer to home. Desperation. Wild hatched schemes. Out bidding a rival team. A pushy agent. A pending divorce. Who knows! But the Reds just got a good deal from Broxton, so I think to each their own.

  7. #21
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  8. #22
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?
    Stubbs is sliding off a cliff it looks like. Upton did just hit a bunch of HR, which is all I can see that's better about him. Defensively, I'd take Stubbs each time.

  9. #23
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Comment from Rowland's Office (a RZ type of site for Braves fans)... "the most expensive B.J. in history".
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  10. #24
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Okay, now THAT'S funny. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #25
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Stubbs is sliding off a cliff it looks like. Upton did just hit a bunch of HR, which is all I can see that's better about him. Defensively, I'd take Stubbs each time.
    They are the same age and have a very similar skill set, but there are key differences between them in terms of performance:

    - Upton walks a little more and strikes out a little less (enough in combination to be a reasonably significant difference)
    - Upton has never relied on a high BABIP. Stubbs relies on a high BABIP to keep his average & OBP in the acceptable range. Think of BABIP as the third leg on the OBP stool along with walk and strikeout rates. Upton's stool is balanced; Stubbs' isn't.
    - Stubbs' plus power (ISO) basically disappeared in 2010 & 2011. Upton has consistently hit for plus power. On a not unrelated note, Stubbs has turned in to an extreme ground ball hitter.

    Code:
    STUBBS
    	Age	PA	BB%	 K%	ISO	BABIP	GB/FB	LD%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	HR	SB
    2010	25	583	 9%	29%	.189	.330	1.09	16%	.255	.329	.444	.338	105	22	30
    2011	26	681	 9%	30%	.121	.343	1.42	20%	.243	.321	.364	.308	90	15	40
    2012	27	544	 8%	31%	.120	.290	1.53	15%	.213	.277	.333	.271	64	14	30
    
    UPTON
    	Age	PA	BB%	 K%	ISO	BABIP	GB/FB	LD%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	HR	SB
    2010	25	610	11%	27%	.187	.304	0.91	17%	.237	.322	.424	.328	107	18	42		
    2011	26	640	11%	25%	.186	.298	1.00	18%	.243	.331	.429	.333	113	23	36
    2012	27	633	 7%	27%	.208	.294	0.98	19%	.246	.298	.454	.323	107	28	31
    In short, I think they are extremely similar players. However, the Reds, terrified of Stubbs' strikeout rate and hoping to boost his AVG/OBP, have pushed him to become more aggressive and ground-ball oriented. In my judgment, this was a poor decision, because it didn't fundamentally change his skill set, it just made less efficient use of it. He sacrificed a big part of his power, hurting his BABIP (BABIP is driven by hard contact as much, if not moreso than, speed) while adding pressure/stress. In other words, we shouldn't confuse Stubbs' production with his skill set. They're obviously related, but I think his production is being hampered by an approach that doesn't make good use of his skills. His speed is awesome, but, like Upton (and most hitters) his power is a much bigger driver of his production at the plate

    By contrast, the Rays have let Upton do what comes naturally to him. The big question, in my mind, is what happened to his walk rate in 2012? Everything else remained the same, so how did he lose 1/3 of his walks? I'd offer a theory, but I haven't really followed him that closely.

    I hypothesize that if Sutbbs he were to go back to his previous approach, his power production would come back, boosting both his BABIP and ISO. However, at this point, that may be impossible as a Red. He knows that they want/expect him to be more contact oriented and I'm not sure that can be undone. However, if the Reds were to trade Stubbs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him put up numbers comparable to Upton moving forward.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-29-2012 at 01:30 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #26
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.

  13. #27
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.
    I don't know how explicit it was from management vs. Stubbs simply coming to the conclusion on his own, but it is undeniable that he started to hit many more grounders in 2011. There was certainly plenty of talk about wanting Stubbs to take advantage of his speed. Again, I don't know if that ever took the form of a dictate, but I don't think its a coincidence either.

    So taking the Reds management out of it, I think Sutbbs would produce more like Upton if he prioritized driving the ball over finding ways to make use of his legs.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #28
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    Comment from Rowland's Office (a RZ type of site for Braves fans)... "the most expensive B.J. in history".
    That joke alone was worth 75 million.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #29
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I think they had one similar season, but I don't think they are now similar. I don't remember the Reds saying anything about him having to change his style. They've said they don't mind the strike outs that much. The only thing I think they wanted him to work on was bunting, but I don't know for sure they have dragged him down into this pit. 1200 at bats is a long slow hell ride to be forcing a guy into an approach that isn't working. I think he's just lost and loosing time.
    I think I have to agree. I've had more faith in Stubbs than most posters, but I think it's more complicated than the Reds trying to force him to be a leadoff guy.
    I think the league adjusted to him.
    Stubbs had that great surge at the end of 2010, and has had flashes occasionally for a couple of days, but I think the league has figured him out.
    That said, Stubbs is supposedly working with a personal batting coach over the winter.. Maybe he'll be able to adjust over the winter.. I'm sure he and the Reds know the weaknesses to address.
    Last edited by REDREAD; 11-29-2012 at 02:38 PM.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #30
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    Re: Braves To Sign B.J. Upton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Isn't Drew Stubbs a very similar player? And, if so, shouldn't he be valuable trade bait?
    I think one of the main differences is the success Upton had at an early age. In 2007 and 2008, while Stubbs was still in the minors, Upton put up 4.5 and 5.0-WAR seasons. People look at that and think if he was that good, that young, he could be a superstar as he comes into his prime.

    Granted, I don't know if that line of thinking is really reasonable. (I know I wouldn't want the Reds FO evaluating players based on what they did 4-5 years ago.) Nonetheless, I think that's the perception, and that gives Upton over Stubbs when comparing their value.


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