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Thread: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

  1. #31
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

    I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #32
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

    I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.
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  4. #33
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Yjou know, if the Reds acquired Choo for left, then you could think about Billy platooning with Stubbs. Hamilton is scuffling hard with lefties. Let Stubbs have the off arms and Billy face the righties this year while he gets his feet wet. It could work and could solve a ton of offensive problems. Plus, if they keep Didi and zach they still have a strong chip to cash if they need a pitcher later on. A good young SS is one commodity that CAN bring an arm at least as good as Leake. The more I look at the possibilities a Choo trade could open up the more I like it!

  5. #34
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    I'd love Choo to be the Reds LF next year, but no way I trade Leake right now, especially for a one year rental.

    Jeremy Guthrie just signed a three year $25M contract. JEREMY GUTHRIE!

    Starting pitchers who are young, healthy and can give you 150+ innings around league average production are rare and very valuable. It may seem like the Reds have a surplus of starting pitching, but I'm betting next year around June, it won't seem that way at all.

    While I like Choo, I'm sure the Reds can find a suitable LF for much less than the price of Mike Leake.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #35
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.
    Yes. I'd even add a decent prospect (outside the top 10 or so).
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  7. #36
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Yjou know, if the Reds acquired Choo for left, then you could think about Billy platooning with Stubbs. Hamilton is scuffling hard with lefties. Let Stubbs have the off arms and Billy face the righties this year while he gets his feet wet. It could work and could solve a ton of offensive problems. Plus, if they keep Didi and zach they still have a strong chip to cash if they need a pitcher later on. A good young SS is one commodity that CAN bring an arm at least as good as Leake. The more I look at the possibilities a Choo trade could open up the more I like it!
    I could be wrong, but I thought Hamilton did better against lefties than righties. He's a natural right handed hitter, and is just learning to hit left handed.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #37
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Leake for Choo is a "loss" on the value front straight up in my opinion, due to the years and money. However, it makes the Reds a markedly better team in 2012, assuming his defensive performance (as measured by UZR) was an abberation. If there's a reasonable chance he can be resigned/extended as some point prior to hitting the FA market, I'd be game. If it were just a 1 year rental, I'd be more inclined to go the prospect route.

    I would certainly not, however, trade Leake and Cigrani and more for Choo unless he was signing an extension the day he landed in Cincinnati.
    I don't get this. First off Choo is a much better player on a year to year basis that Leake. I don't think there is any doubting it. You also have to take into consideration that as of right now the Reds have pitching depth on both the major league club as well as the minors. If the Reds are high on Cingrani as well as Corcino they have help now in the upper minors as well as some exciting arms in the low minors. So what role does Leake have on this team if he is the 6th starter on a team that doesn't really have a role for him?

    The Reds have a need in the OF. They have a pressing need to fix their CF position with help hopefully on the horizon. I don't understand the value of weighing 3 years of Leaking pitching as a MOR or BOR starter when the Reds seem to have that role filled. They have a pressing need to improve the offense in the OF and add another LH bat. If Leake provides more value to the Indians in year 2 and 3 than Choo does to the Reds than so be it. IMO they need to be focused on the here and now.

  9. #38
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I could be wrong, but I thought Hamilton did better against lefties than righties. He's a natural right handed hitter, and is just learning to hit left handed.
    Well this is what I get for reading a couple posts on redleg america or whatevrr that board is called and not checking up! Billy actually had .370 obp vs lefties. 418 vs righties in HiA and a .402 obp vs lefties and the same. 418 vs RH in A. So yes he is nominally better vs righties getting on but I was wrong - his numbers are hardly scuffling vs lefties! Alsjo his SP almost reverses these respective splis viz a viz lefty and righty balancing things out. He hits for a fair bit more power vs lefties while getting on more vs righties. I was wrong... just trade Drew already and go with young William...

  10. #39
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I don't get this. First off Choo is a much better player on a year to year basis that Leake. I don't think there is any doubting it.
    I agree. But if we get just one year of Choo, that's all the value we get.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If Leake provides more value to the Indians in year 2 and 3 than Choo does to the Reds than so be it. IMO they need to be focused on the here and now.
    My point is that I'm only willing to give up so much future value for the here and now. The future value of Leake is one thing. The future value of Leake and two quality prospects is quite another.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #40
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    No.

    1. Do not deplete starting pitching depth. Reds are not likely to be as lucky this year in keeping starters healthy. Arms are fragile. Ask Madson, Masset, and Bray. The Reds need to go to spring training with at least seven legitimate contenders to start. Cingrani and Corcino are not there yet. I do not understand the notion that the Reds have six starters, let's trade one.

    2. I like Choo. Not having to play against him is a plus in itself. He is no guarantee, however, of making the playoffs or going further in the playoffs if the Reds do make them. Is Choo at that price worth that much more than Victorino at comparable numbers and no prospects?

    3. Choo will be cheaper in July. The Indians are going nowhere. Let them deal with Choo's arbitration this off season. When it becomes obvious that the Indians will not make the playoffs, they will be happy to shed payroll and get a mid level prospect in return. That would mean having him for half a season instead of a whole season, but at a much cheaper price. The Reds may even have different needs at mid season.

    4. In general, I am not one to mortgage the future for slightly improved chances of going further in the playoffs. As a fan, I enjoy following a competitive team. Winning it all is great, but how long does that glow last before it is time to focus on the next season? It is hard for a small market team to reload. It takes a few years and some good drafts. Keeping the pitching pipeline flowing is the best insurance of remaining competitive.

  12. #41
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Well this is what I get for reading a couple posts on redleg america or whatevrr that board is called and not checking up! Billy actually had .370 obp vs lefties. 418 vs righties in HiA and a .402 obp vs lefties and the same. 418 vs RH in A. So yes he is nominally better vs righties getting on but I was wrong - his numbers are hardly scuffling vs lefties! Alsjo his SP almost reverses these respective splis viz a viz lefty and righty balancing things out. He hits for a fair bit more power vs lefties while getting on more vs righties. I was wrong... just trade Drew already and go with young William...
    Thanks for the research. I was just going on watching him. I never expected him to have such good numbers against righties.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #42
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions.
    Strongly disagree. Last season spoiled us on quality SP. It can go wrong in an instant. Cueto's small, Arroyo can toss up some bad seasons, Bailey's is still a work-in-progress. I'd be much more confortable moving Cozart than Leake.
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  14. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Mike Leake is not a throw-in. He's a 25 year-old starting pitcher who's held his own in the majors at a young age and likely has his best years in front of him. On top that, name the Cleveland Indians starting pitcher who is better than Mike Leake. ... Can't be done because that guy doesn't exist.

    If they want a throw-in, then that's Todd Redmond. If they want Leake, then Cingrani is off the table.

    Cingrani, Heisey and a more marginal prospect (e.g. Lotzkar) I'd do. I'd prefer it be Corcino to go rather than Cingrani, based largely on me having a lefty fetish and partially on not being sold on Corcino, but no way, no how would I toss Leake into that mix.
    Last edited by M2; 11-30-2012 at 03:31 PM.
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  15. #44
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    While I don't know the Indians' farm system at all, I wonder if someone like Soto has any appeal as sweetener.

    The Reds' first-base farmhands' jobs for the next 12 years is to get good and get to AAA quickly in order to be traded.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  16. #45
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Be On Board for Shin-Soo Choo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We're talking about acquiring a starting LFer with a lifetime .400 OBP against righty pitching. A top notch left handed hitter. He would dramatically boost the Reds offense in the areas of need, LHH, OBP.

    Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.

    Is there any question Reds should take this deal?

    Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions. Leake, Cingrani, and Heisey for Choo? I think I probably make that deal, even for one year. If Choo has a potential interest in extending? I make the deal in a heartbeat.

    And IMO, Choo is worth far more than Span. Span is a punch and judy hitter whose last three offensive years have been fair to poor. Choo is just a much, much better player.
    Yep, Span > Choo for one year.
    But Washington traded for 2 or 3 years of Span, as opposed to one year of Choo.
    Choo is pending arb and is going to be paid well in this last year.
    Historically, corner OF in the last year of their contract just don't command a starter like Leake, a solid pitching prospect like Cingrani, Hiesey, and a PTBL.

    Look at what St louis gave up for one year of Holliday a couple years ago
    The A's sent Holliday and $1.5 million to the Cardinals and
    receive power-hitting third baseman Brett Wallace, a top offensive player
    in the St. Louis farm system; outfielder Shane Peterson and right-hander Clayton Mortensen.
    Holliday > Choo and the Cardinals gave up much less for one year of him.

    2 years ago, the Giants gave up only one pitching prospect for Beltran (although that was only a partial year rental).. Arguably Beltan was at least as good as Choo.

    I'd love to have Choo, but giving up the four players mentioned is too much.

    Would I do Leake straight up for Choo? I'd have to think about it honestly, because I don't want Redmond pitching in Cincy if at all possible, and I don't think Chapman will make it the entire year. A bad pitcher in the #5 slot can cost us considerably in the standings.

    I guess I see pitchers like Leake more scarce than acceptable OFers.. Although I do admit that Choo is an elite OF.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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