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Thread: Dexter Fowler

  1. #1
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Dexter Fowler

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...er-fowler.html

    Do you think Corcino/Cingrani and Didi count as two top prospects?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  3. #2
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Do you think the Rockies FO is just sending out a smoke screen here? To me, it sounds like Fowler is unlikely to be available for anything close to what the Reds are willing to offer. Maybe I'm missing something.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Sounds like they want a kings ransom or they'll just hang with him. Doubt that they consider Corcino and Didi enough. Sounds like they'd want more prospects added or the prospects upgraded - like Hamilton or. Stephenson. No way.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Given what Span (who had a better contract) just fetched, the Rox really ought to be thrilled with one Corcino-level prospect and two or three intriguing or usable arms (e.g. Kyle Lotzkar or Amir Garrett for intriguing; Ondrusek, Simon or Redmond for usable). Colorado is nearly bereft of pitching as an organization.

    Some teams are wary of his bat outside of Coors (the Reds can be a little more confident because they've got a hitters park) and Fowler only comes with two years of control (and you've got to deal with arbitration to exercise that control). Colorado's not exactly sitting on a hot commodity. He is a good fit for certain teams, like the Reds, but no one is going to make a universe altering trade for him.

    Plus, at some point the Reds are going to be just about the last team at the table. The remaining CF market, at least among likely buyers, looks like the Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rangers and maybe the Rays or Brewers. Hamilton, Bourn, Pagan, Victorino and Morgan are still free agents. That's six teams and five free agents (though Hamilton probably will get a job in an OF corner). And Coco Crisp is surely on the market as well. The Rox would be wise to take the deal they can get rather than hold out for pie in the sky.
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Plus, at some point the Reds are going to be just about the last team at the table. The remaining CF market, at least among likely buyers, looks like the Reds, Phillies, Giants, Rangers and maybe the Rays or Brewers. Hamilton, Bourn, Pagan, Victorino and Morgan are still free agents. That's six teams and five free agents (though Hamilton probably will get a job in an OF corner). And Coco Crisp is surely on the market as well. The Rox would be wise to take the deal they can get rather than hold out for pie in the sky.
    You know the Giants, Phils, and Rangers have cash enough to afford some combination of the three top CF. That's Hamilton (A Phillie, IMO), Bourn (Giant), and Pagan (Rangers).

    I don't think Texas will be willing to send any pitching to Colorado, Philadelphia has little in the minor league pipeline, and San Francisco is a division rival.

    The Brewers are next and need a leadoff hitter. They have some coin, but no pitching. None. So Victorino, IMO, makes the most sense.

    The Rays do have pitching, but little capability to spend money. Nor willingness. They also have Desmond Jennings, Lars Anderson, and a couple more minor leaguers they seem to like. There's always Ben Zobrist too-- though he's going to apparently go back to SS this season. (Which I love.) They might find Nyjer Morgan a good fit as a backup bench bat and part-timer CF. (That's the Ray MO.)

    That leaves the Reds in the Fowler catbird seat, I'd wager. Well, it's him or Coco Crisp. Crisp would be far cheaper in terms of prospect cost, but Fowler's a really nice secondary player. (Or at least he might be.)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Sounds like they want a kings ransom or they'll just hang with him. Doubt that they consider Corcino and Didi enough. Sounds like they'd want more prospects added or the prospects upgraded - like Hamilton or. Stephenson. No way.
    I think it's more likely because no team wants to meet their price rather than the Rockies wanting to keep him so bad. But I think they'll come around for all the reasons M2 and Scrap listed.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    You know the Giants, Phils, and Rangers have cash enough to afford some combination of the three top CF. That's Hamilton (A Phillie, IMO), Bourn (Giant), and Pagan (Rangers).

    I don't think Texas will be willing to send any pitching to Colorado, Philadelphia has little in the minor league pipeline, and San Francisco is a division rival.

    The Brewers are next and need a leadoff hitter. They have some coin, but no pitching. None. So Victorino, IMO, makes the most sense.

    The Rays do have pitching, but little capability to spend money. Nor willingness. They also have Desmond Jennings, Lars Anderson, and a couple more minor leaguers they seem to like. There's always Ben Zobrist too-- though he's going to apparently go back to SS this season. (Which I love.) They might find Nyjer Morgan a good fit as a backup bench bat and part-timer CF. (That's the Ray MO.)

    That leaves the Reds in the Fowler catbird seat, I'd wager. Well, it's him or Coco Crisp. Crisp would be far cheaper in terms of prospect cost, but Fowler's a really nice secondary player. (Or at least he might be.)
    That's a decent breakdown of things. I have Bourn ticketed for Philly, Victorino for the Giants and the Giants giving their CF job to Leonys Martin, but that's here nor there.

    My guess is at the winter meetings Jocketty sounds out Beane on Coco Crisp, finds out if he can get Morgan at a bargain price, and then plays hardball with the Rox - essentially telling O'Dowd he's leaving Nashville with a CF regardless of whether it's Fowler.
    Last edited by M2; 11-30-2012 at 04:39 PM.
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    If the Rangers go for Martin (which is a legitimate move), that makes Pagan available. In essence, there are too many CF for too few spots.

    Of course, Colorado could always offer Fowler to a team in need of a LF. Perhaps Seattle, for two of their young SP?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Fowler is arbitration eligible this year and next. Assume this mean he hits free agency after 2014 season. He is projected to earn $4 million next season. I don't see these as impediments, he's reasonable enough and doesn't have a LTC.

    But I don't see the Reds going in this direction.

    For one thing, with Hamilton on the way, Reds will not want to trade major prospects for a CF.

    Secondly, wonder how Fowler would react knowing that Hamilton is coming up, and he, Fowler, is a stop gap. A young player (26) might not like this situation.

    Third, with Stubbs, Heisey, Hamilton as the incumbent and future CF, I just sense that the Reds would prefer a more established veteran as the additional, stopgap player.

    If I were guessing, I'd expect the Reds to go for Coco Crisp. He seems to bit the bill best of all the candidates, although he's a tad expensive for one year.

    Nyger Morgan has had some bad years recently. Grady Sizemore would require a leap of faith given his injuries, but is a possibility.

    If Reds do go for Fowler, it might mean they see Hamilton in the minors for two more seasons. Doubtful to me, I think Hamilton will be rushed to the big leagues.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Of course, Colorado could always offer Fowler to a team in need of a LF. Perhaps Seattle, for two of their young SP?
    Can you imagine a worse scenario for any hitter? Going from Coors Field to Safeco? I wouldn't wish that fate on anyone.

  12. #11
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Nats give up one top prospect for Span. And now the Rockies think they're going to get a Latos haul for Fowler????

    Fowler has been my target all along. But the Rockies are nuts.

    Just stand pat Reds, and hope Hamilton progresses quickly. With Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, and Gregorius, and even Stephenson in the wings, the Reds have a great future ahead of them. The Rockies are pure junk with no pitching whatsoever, while the Reds have 5 or 6 solid starters, a great bullpen, and some good pitching prospects coming behind all of that.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    For one thing, with Hamilton on the way, Reds will not want to trade major prospects for a CF.
    Fowler could play LF and provide Gold Glove defense in that position while batting second in the lineup. The Cincinnati OF defense could become one of the best of all time, were Hamilton to reach his ceiling, Bruce to play as he did a couple years ago, and Fowler move to LF. Too, as a two-hole hitter, Fowler's speed, bunting ability, and pop would all play up. As a switch hitter, he'd be a nightmare for opposing pitchers as well.

    Hamilton CF
    Fowler LF
    Votto 1B
    Frazier 3B
    Bruce RF
    Phillips 2B
    Hanigan/ Mesoraco C
    Gregorius/ Cozart SS

    Were Hamilton to reach his expected level of production and Fowler to prove more htan a Coors Field mirage, that lineup could produce 200+ SB and 175+ HR.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Fowler could play LF and provide Gold Glove defense in that position while batting second in the lineup. The Cincinnati OF defense could become one of the best of all time, were Hamilton to reach his ceiling, Bruce to play as he did a couple years ago, and Fowler move to LF. Too, as a two-hole hitter, Fowler's speed, bunting ability, and pop would all play up. As a switch hitter, he'd be a nightmare for opposing pitchers as well.

    Hamilton CF
    Fowler LF
    Votto 1B
    Frazier 3B
    Bruce RF
    Phillips 2B
    Hanigan/ Mesoraco C
    Gregorius/ Cozart SS

    Were Hamilton to reach his expected level of production and Fowler to prove more htan a Coors Field mirage, that lineup could produce 200+ SB and 175+ HR.
    I would prefer a power hitting LF for the middle of the order.

    Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, Ludwick, Bruce, Frazier, Cozart, Catcher, Pitcher. If Mes hits, he can switch spots with Cozart.

    If Frazier were a more established cleanup hitter, I might prefer it your way.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-30-2012 at 08:03 PM.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Is the pro-Fowler contingent not concerned about his severe road/home splits? I understand that GABP, like Coors, is a favorable hitting environment, but ESPN's park factors seem to indicate that's primarily a result of GABP increasing home run totals. HRs aren't really a big part of Fowler's game, and in terms of singles, doubles and triples, GABP isn't nearly as favorable as Coors. It doesn't seem like Fowler's skills would play very well in GABP.

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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    His career road obp is 331, a full 64 points higher than the guy he'd replace. Even if that's all he'll do, that's significant.

    Add to that his age, ceiling, smaller ballparks to play the majority of his games in, and the lineup he's in, and the downside is negligible.

    IMO, Fowler would OPS around 825 as Red with around 20 homers (he had 13 last season in Colorado) and about the same number of stolen bases. His approach at the plate-- a willingness to work the count-- would be welcome too. Though he does K a fair amount of the time, he'd still K around 100 times less than Stubbs. That'd put him at the third best Red hitter behind Bruce and Votto. Not only that, his ability to switch hit balances the lineup nicely and is a weapon against RH. Which the Reds could really use.

    Add Fowler and Jason Bay or Ryan Sweeney, and the Red offense, with health, could be among the best in the league, IMO.
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 11-30-2012 at 11:32 PM.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher


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