Bailey is only a year and a half older and is a free agent one year earlier than Leake. That has value, certainly. However, when I see Bailey's stats, I see his WHIP dropping four years in a row. His BB rate? Declined four years in a row. He's striking people out at a relatively high rate and has consistently for three years. Leake, meanwhile, is up and down. He gives up more hits and Ks less. He gives up more HR. In terms of scouting, Leake's short on stuff, long on moxie. But it'll take him a few years to find himself. Overall, Leake, despite better control, lost 20 points of obp to Bailey last season.
As to whether Bailey's numbers were a result of pitching against the weaker sisters of the NL, Leake's OPS against against the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros is around a 770 in 312 PAs. Bailey's OPS against those three teams was more than 100 points lower in almost exactly the same number of PAs. And that's about what their difference is overall, too-- about 100 OPS points. Good teams and bad teams get much better wood on Leake's offerings.
Were I the Red GM, that's a price I'd gladly pay.
In short, Bailey > Leake.
Too, if one of them is dealt, I think they'll likely look for another Brett Tomko type to stash in AAA. However, a prospect like Daniel Corcino or Tony Cingrani, a suspect like Redmond, or a middle reliever like LeCure (or perhaps Cingrani or Hoover) could make couple starts, if need be.
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I thought this was an interesting article on the Fowler/Stubbs comparison. Key graph:
The difference between Dexter Fowler and Drew Stubbs is there. Itís not a grand chasm, and not one worth a budding starter like Homer Bailey. But if the Reds can pick up Fowler for a replaceable talent like Mike Leake, the flexibility and depth they would pick up in the outfielder would be worth the cost.
"Bring on Rod Stupid!"
1. Look at the graph and you will see Fowlers production improving, and Stubbs' production declining. I'm a big Stubbs fan, but even I think that Fowler is much more than just a one and a half win improvement over Stubbs. Stubbs has hit a wall when it comes to hitting, while Fowler keeps getting better.
2. If you go by xFIP and Sierra, Bailey and Leake are almost identical. Bailey is a bright shiny thing because of his finish last year, but really all he did was catch up to his peripherals. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that they have similar seasons in 2013 if both stay with the Reds.
So basically, I think there is a much bigger gap between Fowler and Stubbs than the author, but a much smaller one between Bailey and Leake.
I love Cameron and Fangraphs overall, but the articles he farms out are some of the worst in the sabermetric community, imo.
"Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.
Fowler has always had a good idea at the plate and gotten on base at a high rate.
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I could see this happening for the mere fact that the Rockies are in a period of incompetency, with no less than the "75 pitch limit" rotation strategy as Exhibit A. They just traded Alex White, the centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, for Wilton Lopez. So, they just completed the whiff on the Jimenez deal. Maybe they will buy into Leake's "GB pitcher when he's on" montra and "change of scenery" for Stubbs (what else could there be?) and take that for Fowler because of "Coors effect" risk. I know I'd be happy with that deal.
Can't win with 'em
Can't win without 'em
Stubbs, Leake and a Lotzkar-level prospect seems about right to me. I'd still have rather traded for Span or Upton, but that's another conversation entirely), but Fowler would be a nice consolation prize.
Maybe Walt can sell the Rockies on the fact that Leake could flat-out rake in Coors.
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Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.
Done and done.
If they're willing to include Pomeranz, I'd throw in Corcino or Cingrani. Pomeranz and Chapman could combine for 220 IP of a nasty left-handed starting pitcher.
Last edited by Benihana; 12-08-2012 at 11:24 AM.
Too much, IMO. I hope the Reds do not deal Barnhart. Good defensive catcher, switch-hitter, all the intangibles. Hold onto him.Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.
I'd prefer the Reds go with a one-year stopgap who costs less talent, now that we know Ludwick will be in LF for at least 2 years. Maybe they can get Ellsbury or Bourn (or Crisp) to do that.
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Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie