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Thread: Dexter Fowler

  1. #136
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I wouldn't necessarily hate a Homer for Fowler trade, but the reason I like Homer so much more than Leake is upside. Homer frequently flashes his ace stuff and did so even more often towards the end of the year, and Leake looks like he is what he always be, which is a mid-rotation starter. I like Leake a lot. He does have value, but not as much as Homer.
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  3. #137
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Call me crazy, but I would trade Homer straight up for Fowler.

    I think Bailey benefited from facing the Astros, Pirates and Cubs five times in his last seven starts, to give the appearance that he has turned a corner. He definitely progressed, but really just from a #5 starter to a #3 or 4 starter. I see him and Leake as interchangeable in terms of production in the coming years, with Leake being cheaper and under contol for more years. I think because of Homer's no-no, his trade value is higher, and the Reds should take advantage of that.

    I also think that if the Reds do trade either Homer or Leake, they need to pick up some extra arms for rotation depth. Even if Chapman is a success in the rotation, they will likely need a few other starters throughout the season.
    You're crazy. (You told me to!)

    Bailey is only a year and a half older and is a free agent one year earlier than Leake. That has value, certainly. However, when I see Bailey's stats, I see his WHIP dropping four years in a row. His BB rate? Declined four years in a row. He's striking people out at a relatively high rate and has consistently for three years. Leake, meanwhile, is up and down. He gives up more hits and Ks less. He gives up more HR. In terms of scouting, Leake's short on stuff, long on moxie. But it'll take him a few years to find himself. Overall, Leake, despite better control, lost 20 points of obp to Bailey last season.

    As to whether Bailey's numbers were a result of pitching against the weaker sisters of the NL, Leake's OPS against against the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros is around a 770 in 312 PAs. Bailey's OPS against those three teams was more than 100 points lower in almost exactly the same number of PAs. And that's about what their difference is overall, too-- about 100 OPS points. Good teams and bad teams get much better wood on Leake's offerings.

    Were I the Red GM, that's a price I'd gladly pay.

    In short, Bailey > Leake.

    Too, if one of them is dealt, I think they'll likely look for another Brett Tomko type to stash in AAA. However, a prospect like Daniel Corcino or Tony Cingrani, a suspect like Redmond, or a middle reliever like LeCure (or perhaps Cingrani or Hoover) could make couple starts, if need be.
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  4. #138
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Is Fowler good enough of a CF defensively? I ask because I honestly don't know, I watch very little Rockies baseball. How is his range, speed, and arm? His metrics don't jump off the page at you, and he has committed 14 errors in the last 2 seasons, Drew Stubbs has 8 for comparison.
    Does it matter? A lot of people don't care for Stubbs defensively and say his CF ability is all based on speed. GABP doesn't have the huge CF they have in COLO so there would certainly be less ground to patrol thus less of a chance to let a ball drop. If he were here he wouldn't be playing in SD and SF several times a year - both parks also having large OFs.
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  5. #139
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    I thought this was an interesting article on the Fowler/Stubbs comparison. Key graph:

    The difference between Dexter Fowler and Drew Stubbs is there. Itís not a grand chasm, and not one worth a budding starter like Homer Bailey. But if the Reds can pick up Fowler for a replaceable talent like Mike Leake, the flexibility and depth they would pick up in the outfielder would be worth the cost.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  6. #140
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I thought this was an interesting article on the Fowler/Stubbs comparison. Key graph:
    Two points about the article.

    1. Look at the graph and you will see Fowlers production improving, and Stubbs' production declining. I'm a big Stubbs fan, but even I think that Fowler is much more than just a one and a half win improvement over Stubbs. Stubbs has hit a wall when it comes to hitting, while Fowler keeps getting better.

    2. If you go by xFIP and Sierra, Bailey and Leake are almost identical. Bailey is a bright shiny thing because of his finish last year, but really all he did was catch up to his peripherals. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that they have similar seasons in 2013 if both stay with the Reds.

    So basically, I think there is a much bigger gap between Fowler and Stubbs than the author, but a much smaller one between Bailey and Leake.

    I love Cameron and Fangraphs overall, but the articles he farms out are some of the worst in the sabermetric community, imo.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #141
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Two points about the article.

    1. Look at the graph and you will see Fowlers production improving, and Stubbs' production declining. I'm a big Stubbs fan, but even I think that Fowler is much more than just a one and a half win improvement over Stubbs. Stubbs has hit a wall when it comes to hitting, while Fowler keeps getting better.

    2. If you go by xFIP and Sierra, Bailey and Leake are almost identical. Bailey is a bright shiny thing because of his finish last year, but really all he did was catch up to his peripherals. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that they have similar seasons in 2013 if both stay with the Reds.

    So basically, I think there is a much bigger gap between Fowler and Stubbs than the author, but a much smaller one between Bailey and Leake.

    I love Cameron and Fangraphs overall, but the articles he farms out are some of the worst in the sabermetric community, imo.
    Great!

    Much like 10cc, I'm not in love with any of the players involved but I think if I had to make a decision in five minutes, I'd rather trade Mike Leake + someone for Fowler than Homer Bailey (and maybe someone.)
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #142
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Fowler has always had a good idea at the plate and gotten on base at a high rate.

  9. #143
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    I can spell,I just can't type!!

  10. #144
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    I could see this happening for the mere fact that the Rockies are in a period of incompetency, with no less than the "75 pitch limit" rotation strategy as Exhibit A. They just traded Alex White, the centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, for Wilton Lopez. So, they just completed the whiff on the Jimenez deal. Maybe they will buy into Leake's "GB pitcher when he's on" montra and "change of scenery" for Stubbs (what else could there be?) and take that for Fowler because of "Coors effect" risk. I know I'd be happy with that deal.
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  11. #145
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I could see this happening for the mere fact that the Rockies are in a period of incompetency, with no less than the "75 pitch limit" rotation strategy as Exhibit A. They just traded Alex White, the centerpiece of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, for Wilton Lopez. So, they just completed the whiff on the Jimenez deal. Maybe they will buy into Leake's "GB pitcher when he's on" montra and "change of scenery" for Stubbs (what else could there be?) and take that for Fowler because of "Coors effect" risk. I know I'd be happy with that deal.
    I think Pomeranz was considered the centerpiece of the Ubaldo deal, but I see your point, O'Dowd does seem to whiff on a lot of his moves, the fact that Jimenez has struggled in Cleveland notwithstanding. Seems like a team that spins its wheels continuously and is ripe for the picking.

    Stubbs, Leake and a Lotzkar-level prospect seems about right to me. I'd still have rather traded for Span or Upton, but that's another conversation entirely), but Fowler would be a nice consolation prize.

    Maybe Walt can sell the Rockies on the fact that Leake could flat-out rake in Coors.
    "It's still a long way to the top if we want to rock'n'roll, but at least they dumped the tuba player."
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  12. #146
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by WVPacman View Post
    Renck and Rosenthal seem to think it would be Leake, Stubbs + a catching prospect.

    Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.

    Done and done.



    If they're willing to include Pomeranz, I'd throw in Corcino or Cingrani. Pomeranz and Chapman could combine for 220 IP of a nasty left-handed starting pitcher.
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-08-2012 at 12:24 PM.
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  13. #147
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Leake, Stubbs, and Barnhart for Fowler.
    Too much, IMO. I hope the Reds do not deal Barnhart. Good defensive catcher, switch-hitter, all the intangibles. Hold onto him.

    I'd prefer the Reds go with a one-year stopgap who costs less talent, now that we know Ludwick will be in LF for at least 2 years. Maybe they can get Ellsbury or Bourn (or Crisp) to do that.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #148
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    now that we know Ludwick will be in LF for at least 2 years.
    Just because he's signed doesn't mean he'll be able to keep the job. Be happy if the Reds get one more good year out of Ludwick. His primary value to the 2014 Reds could be as trade bait, at least provided the team has another LF option in tow (e.g. Fowler).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  15. #149
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie

  16. #150
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Why do the Rox need a catcher, they have Rosario who just hit 20+ hr as a rookie
    I thought it was the Rays who needed a catcher and were looking to jump into a possible Fowler - Leake deal to get Mes.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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