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Thread: Dexter Fowler

  1. #76
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Agreed. To trade Bailey for a half-season rental who will be worthless trade fodder once Hamilton arrives at the Show (probably by June), is short-sighted and reeks of "Doing something to keep the fans happy" mentality.
    I disagree.

    I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.

    1. He only has 50 games of experience in the high minors and almost no experience at his expected MLB defensive position.

    2. Even the best prospects flop sometimes.

    3. Even if they don't flop, prospects often take time to find success in the majors.

    The Reds need a real plan to ensure they get some production out of CF in 2013, and 'wait for Billy' is not a real plan. If the Reds put all their eggs in the Billy basket, what do they do if Billy can't replicate his 2012 minor league success? Or what if puts up good numbers in the minors and then turns into Willy Taveras once he reaches the majors? 'Wait for Billy' is not a plan, it's operating without a net.

    The Reds need to address their leadoff/CF issues with guys are legit major league contributors right now, not a kid who might be a contributor some day down the line. If Billy forces his way to majors and into the lineup, the Reds will have a pleasant problem to deal with (too many quality OF), but they need to cover their bases just in case he doesn't.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 12-03-2012 at 10:37 AM.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Agreed. To trade Bailey for a half-season rental who will be worthless trade fodder once Hamilton arrives at the Show (probably by June), is short-sighted and reeks of "Doing something to keep the fans happy" mentality.
    You do realize Fowler is under team control till 2016? He is hardly a scrub, and would immediately solve the lead off problem the Reds have had.

    I don't like the idea of giving up Homer just as he's starting to deliver on his ability, but I could be convinced.
    "I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking

  4. #78
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  5. #79
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.
    You are correct. I'd say it is around a 50/50 proposition that Billy pans out in the bigs...which is typical for a great prospect.

    Assuming he will be starting in CF come July is silly. It may happen, but we are talking about a kid who hasn't even hit AAA pitching yet.

  6. #80
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Fowler in LF wouldn't be the worst as long as one of Frazier or Mesoraco (or both) end up with 20HR a season. Meanwhile we already have + slugging at the SS position with Cozart, so there seems to be enough going around the team for now. One thing is sure, if Fowler can get on base at 37%, he's a huge upgrade to the OF.

  7. #81
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    I don't think I do Bailey for Fowler right now.

    There are too many available OF to make me believe it's a sellers market. I'd shop some combination of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani (and Stubbs) before I'd trade Bailey.

    Not saying I wouldn't trade Bailey in the right deal, just not sure if it makes sense to give him up for Fowler without trying to use the other pieces to get a guy like Choo, Ellsbury, or even Justin Upton first. Or for that matter, using the other pieces to try to get Fowler.

    If they include Pomeranz in the deal, that would make me think twice.
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  8. #82
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I disagree.

    I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.
    .
    That's a solid point.
    I guess I have a different point of view.. Let's say hyptothetically that the Reds get a decent bat in LF.
    Then there's not a whole lot of pressure to get offense out of CF , IMO.
    People like to point out how bad Stubbs was last year in OBP.. that's reasonable, but it also means the bar for improvement from Billy is set pretty low. So I guess I'm ok with Billy starting next year, but not counting on him to be an offensive force.

    Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.

    I guess I would only consider trading Homer for Fowler if every other option to add a quality OF was exhausted. I like Fowler, but Homer is a pretty steep price.
    Now if the Rockies are willing to take some minor leaguers for Fowler, I'd be more willing to listen. The Rockies might prefer prospects as well.. Homer is about 2 years away from FA, right? Maybe I have the math wrong, but I figure Homer is going to be a FA long before they get good again.

    Based on what some pitchers have said (such as Harnish), throwing a lot of fastballs is a great game plan in Coors.. You got to figure that the Rockies would be very interested in Cingrani (even if he's only a bullpenner), since Cingrani has that great FB..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  9. #83
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    That's a solid point.
    I guess I have a different point of view.. Let's say hyptothetically that the Reds get a decent bat in LF.
    Then there's not a whole lot of pressure to get offense out of CF , IMO.
    People like to point out how bad Stubbs was last year in OBP.. that's reasonable, but it also means the bar for improvement from Billy is set pretty low. So I guess I'm ok with Billy starting next year, but not counting on him to be an offensive force.

    Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.

    I guess I would only consider trading Homer for Fowler if every other option to add a quality OF was exhausted. I like Fowler, but Homer is a pretty steep price.
    Now if the Rockies are willing to take some minor leaguers for Fowler, I'd be more willing to listen. The Rockies might prefer prospects as well.. Homer is about 2 years away from FA, right? Maybe I have the math wrong, but I figure Homer is going to be a FA long before they get good again.

    Based on what some pitchers have said (such as Harnish), throwing a lot of fastballs is a great game plan in Coors.. You got to figure that the Rockies would be very interested in Cingrani (even if he's only a bullpenner), since Cingrani has that great FB..
    Agree with these thoughts, particularly with trying to deal Cingrani, Corcino and/or Leake, first.

    And apparently so does Fay: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ot-for-bailey/
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  10. #84
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Regardless of whether Billy H succeeds or not, the team is going to invest a lot of at bats in him.. If we sign Ludwick and trade for Fowler, what are we going to do with Billy? I guess we could trade him, but it seems like a team on a tight budget is going to give their top prospect every opportunity to succeed.
    That's another good point. It's always easy to say having too many center fielders is good problem to have, but it seems like those positional logjams don't sort themselves out as cleanly as we'd like them too. If we're trading a major piece, I'd rather get a left fielder. That's both a current need and one that doesn't have an answer anywhere in the system.

  11. #85
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Not saying I wouldn't trade Bailey in the right deal, just not sure if it makes sense to give him up for Fowler without trying to use the other pieces to get a guy like Choo, Ellsbury, or even Justin Upton first. Or for that matter, using the other pieces to try to get Fowler.
    Good post (REDREAD too). Bailey potentially opens up the door to a lot of different moves. Jocketty's got to see what Homer's market is (e.g. maybe Upton). And I agree that it looks like a buyer's market. Billy Beane is practically going to give Coco Crisp away. While I'd much rather have Fowler, would you rather have him or Crisp and Bailey?
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  12. #86
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    I would think the Rockies, with their long term commitments with Tulo and Cargo, are looking to contend sooner than later. Their pitching staff was so horrible last year, if they can turn it around to just below average, they could factor in that 5th wildcard scenario. Dealing with the Reds, who had the top staff, is a really good idea for them.

  13. #87
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Bailey + Crisp > Fowler + Leake

    Bailey + Morgan > Fowler + Leake

    Bailey + Fowler >>>>> Leake + Corcino + Heisey/ Stubbs + Ondrusek/ Arredondo

    But...

    Bailey + Fowler > Leake + Hoover??
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  14. #88
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Bailey + Crisp > Fowler + Leake

    Bailey + Morgan > Fowler + Leake

    Bailey + Fowler >>>>> Leake + Corcino + Heisey/ Stubbs + Ondrusek/ Arredondo

    But...

    Bailey + Fowler > Leake + Hoover??
    Despite all the differing opinions on trading for Fowler can we all just agree that under no circumstances should Nyjer Morgan be considered for the position.

  15. #89
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Quote Originally Posted by jhu1321 View Post
    Despite all the differing opinions on trading for Fowler can we all just agree that under no circumstances should Nyjer Morgan be considered for the position.
    No. Morgan's a reasonable fallback plan. Sounds like Angel Pagan is going to get at least four years (no thank you on that). Bourn is going to receive a truckload of money. Victorino might get three years. If the trade market doesn't work out then a Morgan/Stubbs CF platoon is a potentially decent short-term solution.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  16. #90
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    Re: Dexter Fowler

    Fowler reminds me, in a vague sense, of Roberto Kelly, in more ways than one.


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