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Thread: Giancarlo Stanton

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    I'd trade Chapman and Hamilton in a deal for Stanton. I think Stanton makes it more likely the Reds are WS contenders the next three years.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #17
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Not to hijack the thread, but Ryan LaMarre 7th on that list is one of the funniest things I've ever seen. Did they mean 77th? 107th?

  4. #18
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'd trade Chapman and Hamilton in a deal for Stanton. I think Stanton makes it more likely the Reds are WS contenders the next three years.
    Agreed. I don't think some people realize how young he is. Mike Stanton is just the 9th player to have more than 1450 PA and a 140 OPS+ through his age 22 season and the first since Mickey Mantle in 1954. The rest of the list: Eddie Mathews ('54), Ted Williams ('41), Mel Ott ('31), Jimmie Foxx ('30), Rogers Hornsby ('18), Ty Cobb ('09), Sherry Magee ('07).

    Obviously that's cherry picking a little with the PA cutoff, but it also just happens to be true. Three full seasons of HOF caliber hitting by age 22 is a pretty darn elite group. And even if you drop the PA cutoff to 1000, the list only expands to 16, with Pujols ('02) and Curt Belfary ('66) joining Stanton as the only guys since Mantle to do it.

    If you want a fuller picture, you can use 10 rWAR through age 22 as a cutoff instead. That's a group of 38 players. At Stanton's 12.0 rWAR it's a list of 38, including just Jason Heyward, Andruw Jones, ARod, Griffey Jr. and Rickey Henderson since 1980.

    Chapman and Hamilton certainly has the possibility of being more valuable, especially if Chapman pans out as a starter, but in terms of winning now and keeping upside, Stanton makes a big difference.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-03-2012 at 11:28 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #19
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

    Agent joel wolfe says giancarlo feels "same" since unhappy tweet after trade. "It wasn't a reaction, it's a state of mind."

    ----

    Go get him, Walt.

  6. #20
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

    I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  7. #21
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

    I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.
    I think that is kinda a fair deal. I don't know why Bud would veto that.

  8. #22
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    Yes he is.
    No he's really not. Stanton had a very good 5.8 WAR. But Chapman had 3.3 WAR as a reliever. As a starter, it's likely that will nearly double.

    So no, he's not worth throwing in Billy Hamilton on top of it.
    Last edited by Brutus; 12-03-2012 at 01:27 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #23
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Um Stanton is a generational talent. He's definitely worth it. He's putting up Hank Aaron and Griffey Jr. numbers. You're telling me you wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire either of them after they only spent two years I'm the majors?
    There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

    In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #24
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'd do Hamilton and Chapman, and I love both.

    I also think the Marlins might be willing to do that, but Bud Selig wouldn't allow it.
    I am trying to remember.. has Bud ever nixed a deal?
    I don't think he has (someone please remind me otherwise).
    Bud is an owner's puppet.. if an owner wants to salary dump or whatever, he's going to let them.. He certainly didn't care about the Miami-Toronto deal, the Red Sox-Dodgers deal and many other salary dumps.

    The Marlins would likely get some very good prospects for Stanton.. Even if they traded away Stanton for a nickel.. I doubt Bud would care or intervene.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #25
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

    In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.
    Except for perhaps Trout, none of those players was 22 or under. (I haven't checked) And Griffey's first 7+ WAR season (using b-r.com) wasn't until his age 23 season.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  12. #26
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    There were 17 players who recorded more WAR than Stanton's 5.8 last year. Must be a lot of generational talents in baseball right now.

    In the peak of his career, Griffey was a 7-10 win player. Now THAT is a generational talent.
    First, Stanton was a 6 WAR player in only 500 PAs of playing time. The players ahead of him on that list achieved their WAR with an average of 165 more PAs. Basically they had the benefit of roughly playing a quarter of the season more than Stanton. Only two players had greater than 5.8 WAR when their playing time was normalized to Stanton's (Trout and Posey). Or to put it another way, if Stanton was normalized to the average playing time of the guys above him, he was on pace to be a 7.7 WAR player.

    Second, how many were 22 or younger? (hint: 2: Heyward and Trout). The average age of the 17 position players you're referring to is 28. It's not really fair to compare Stanton at age 22 to Jr during his peak years though when using important context such as playing time and age, Staton is hanging right with young Jr. That said, I think most would concede that Stanton is probably likely to be somewhere below the career of one of the top 5 centerfielders of all time but Stanton is not at his peak and he could easily be a 7 to 10 WAR guy at age 28. The guy is a very unique, elite trueskill player.

    Third, Chapman is a relief pitcher. He was one of the most dominating bullpen arms in the majors last year and was only worth 3.3 WAR. He may become a dominant starter. He MAY. Right now it's counting unhatched chickens. Speaking of unhatched chickens, that's what Hamilton is as well. Would Chapman's WAR double as a starter? How many starting pitchers posted a WAR over 6 last season? (hint 2: Verlander and King Felix). It generally takes such an arm somewhere in the neighborhood of 230-250 innings to do it. Is Chapman a lock to ever pitch 230 innings? If he did, would he do it with a FIP around 3 or lower? As unhatched chickens go, it seems writing Chapman in as a 6.5 WAR pitcher in ink is assuming a great deal.

    When talking about a team that should contend for the WS over the next several seasons, i'll take a bird in the hand over two in the bush.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #27
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    I'd deal both for Stanton in a heartbeat. Hamilton is a maybe. Chapman is a maybe as a starter. Stanton IS an elite player. Don't think it will happen, but I'd do it and not think twice about it.

    Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

  14. #28
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    I'd do both for Stanton, and I wouldn't even have to think about it that long. You keep the same rotation as last season, bat Phillips at leadoff, Votto-Stanton-Bruce in your big spots, and deal with Stubbs batting 8th and shagging all the fly balls in center. That's quite a team.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  15. #29
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    This would be kind of similar to the Maybin/Miller/others deal for Cabrera and Willis. I know, I now Chapman is more valuable than Miller, but I think Stanton is more valuable than Cabrera due to defense.

  16. #30
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Giancarlo Stanton

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    This would be kind of similar to the Maybin/Miller/others deal for Cabrera and Willis. I know, I now Chapman is more valuable than Miller, but I think Stanton is more valuable than Cabrera due to defense.
    Cabrera's WAR was 5.6 when he was traded. Stanton's is 5.8. The difference, though, is Chapman put up nearly 3.5 WAR in less than 80 innings. Andrew Miller had pitched 74 MLB innings with a 5.72 ERA at the time he was traded.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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