Heard his name being a possible target for the Reds leadoff hitter.
Heard his name being a possible target for the Reds leadoff hitter.
Jon Paul Morosi is speculating on a Bailey for Fowler swap...
http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/m...tings/12345181
Not sure how I feel about this. I like Fowler, but I hate to see the rotation take a hit. Bailey was a huge part of the Reds' success last year, and I've been one of his detractors in the past. If the Reds are going to deal Bailey, I think I'd rather go after Alex Gordon.
Dexter Fowler is all Coors Field and it would be a mistake to deal Homer for him.
Fowler's Career Splits
.295/.395/.487/.882 at Home
.248/.331/.367/.698 on Road
Homer's road numbers will get teams attention but hopefully we notice the splits for Fowler too and not make a major mistake here.
Last edited by HometownHero; 12-02-2012 at 06:50 PM.
Hell yes, all day every day. They won't do it though.
The splits don't really bother me as much as they would with a lot of guys since Fowler plays in the only hitter's park in the NL West. A lot of his road games are played in SF and SD. The real red flag with Fowler is his .390 BABIP last season. I don't think he'll duplicate that. He's good, but not as good as he was in 2012.
His home park had a 1.579 PF (park factor) with division foes having PFs of 1.171 (Arizona), .867 (LA), .854 (SD), .737 (SF). His new home park would have a PF of 1.113 with division foes having 1.168 (Milwaukee), 1.024 (Chicago), .985 (St. Louis), .764 (Pittsburgh). I was actually surprised to see this. I was fully expecting the difference to be much greater.
The West also has Chase field when is a big time hitters park that had the 2nd most runs in the NL last year and a place he's hit 3 of his 8 HR away from Denver. He has a .827 OPS there in 99 AB helping his .698 road OPS in 913 AB.
This move will make Cards fans do cartwheels if it goes down.
If they want Bailey they need to take Stubbs too. That clears money and then I would honestly make a run at Justin Upton.
Fowler - CF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Upton - LF
Bruce - RF
Frazier - 3B
Cozart / Didi - SS
Hanigan / Mesoraco - C
I think that lineup may do some damage, but again like the Latos trade people have to be okay with parting with prospects. As long as we don't give up Corcinco, Stephenson or Cingrani, personally I am fine with any prospects going. We need to keep pitching in house because we won't get FA.
If you move Bailey and Stubbs for Fowler, what would you than move for Upton? I am under the impression that it will take a combination of 3 MLB ready players/top 10 prospects to leand Upton. The deal I keep coming back to for upton is Leake, Gregirous and Corcino as the centerpiece of the deal for Upton.
So I ask you what would you give for Upton after moving Bailey and Stubbs because you show Cozart/Didi at short and I am all but certain one of those guys would have to go the other way to get Upton. Also, if Bailey is moved for Fowler, to get Upton your going to have to include a SP (most likely Leake). So after the trades you lose 2 starters and have a hole at the 5th spot that you would be relying on a prospect like Corcino or Cingrani (whomever doesn't go to Arizona) to be a full time starter.
As much as I would like to have both Fowler and Upton on board, we would take too big a hit in our starting pitching and would be relying way too much on a prospect who has never pitched in the majors to help fill the void. To me that's too big a risk to take.
what i don't get is that for years...even decades, the Reds struggled to be competitive due to lack of quality starting pitching and now they finally have it. then, you are willing to trade away one of the Reds better starters in Bailey and then rely more heavily on Mike Leake and an unproven starter in Chapman in 2013? And if you go the Chapman route, invariably there will be someone else, such as Redmond, picking up the innings slack for Chapman. No thanks.....again as I see this "potentially" weakening the rotation. Bailey is only traded if the front office feels like he won't sign long term.
Last edited by holster10; 12-03-2012 at 01:09 PM.
After seeing this
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...or-nelson.html
I can't imagine Fowler would cost Bailey.
That's actually pretty encouraging. I would love Fowler and Mike Minor is much closer in value to a Leake+ package than one centered around Homer.
If the Rox are wanting pitching for now and later, I'd offer up Leake, Lotzkar and Stubbs. If they balked at Lotzkar (and they might), I would swap him for Corcino... Not so hot on the idea of packaging Cingrani. I also don't know if they'd want Stubbs except to replace the depth they'd lose in Fowler. It might be wishful thinking, but by hook or crook, I really don't expect Drew to be on the club this season, though.
Honestly, I think that's a pretty reasonable deal for both teams and would be a good baseball move.
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