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Thread: Centerfield 2013

  1. #46
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Several things.

    1. You're ignoring injuries.
    2. It's far from certain that Cingrani even stays a starter.
    3. We have no clue how Corcino will fare in the majors.
    4. We have no clue how Chapman will fare as a starter. He bombed the first go-round.
    5. I don't think anybody is advocating holding onto EVERY pitching prospect. But trading Bailey right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2013. Trading Leake right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2014. Cueto becomes a free agent in 2015 I believe...just in time for Stephenson.

    .
    I don't agree, I think most teams take risks with their sixth and seventh starters. These usually are not the complete package.

    If I could make a good deal for Leake, I'd do it and use Redmond, Corcino, Cingrani, and maybe one new inexpensive veteran as the tandem in line for sixth starter.

    But this thread is about CF and I would NOT trade a major player or prospect for a stopgap CFer. I'd trade someone in the Lotzkar category for a one-year CFer. Maybe two such prospects.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Just listening and watching some coverage of the Winter Meetings, I've heard it said that Leake has little value coming off last year.
    If this is true then the market is undervalueing him. This is why you build a pitchers park and not a hitters park.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  4. #48
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't agree, I think most teams take risks with their sixth and seventh starters. These usually are not the complete package.

    If I could make a good deal for Leake, I'd do it and use Redmond, Corcino, Cingrani, and maybe one new inexpensive veteran as the tandem in line for sixth starter.

    But this thread is about CF and I would NOT trade a major player or prospect for a stopgap CFer. I'd trade someone in the Lotzkar category for a one-year CFer. Maybe two such prospects.
    Problem is, you can't make a good deal on Leake right now. His trade value is probably at an all-time low even though his ceiling is still high. And I don't want to have to use Redmond, C/C unless I was forced to this season. With Leake in the loop, we won't have to be forced into that situation. If the right deal presents itself, fine. But I don't actively shop any of our pitchers right now. We can fill our needs without doing that.

    Personally, I'll be fine with the team as a whole once Ludwick signs.

    And yes, you're right...wrong thread. Sorry. I'll drop this now.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  5. #49
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Several things.

    1. You're ignoring injuries.
    2. It's far from certain that Cingrani even stays a starter.
    3. We have no clue how Corcino will fare in the majors.
    4. We have no clue how Chapman will fare as a starter. He bombed the first go-round.
    5. I don't think anybody is advocating holding onto EVERY pitching prospect. But trading Bailey right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2013. Trading Leake right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2014. Cueto becomes a free agent in 2015 I believe...just in time for Stephenson.

    IMO, one season of Leake playing the Cincy-to-Louisville shuttle will not hurt him. It keeps him on a starters schedule and further increases his experience. Corcino/Cingrani don't look to be ready this year. But if the right deal comes along...I'm fine with trading one of them. Stephenson looks to be the heir apparent for when Cueto leaves just like Leake is the heir apparent for when Arroyo leaves.

    People act like we have 8 starting pitchers right now...when in fact we have 5 1/2. Chapman won't go all season. Corcino/Cingrani are most likely not ready but we could use them if we have to (due to injuries). If the right trade comes along, fine...but I see no reason to "shop" them.
    1. No, I'm not- 6 starters is fine, 8 is hoarding.
    2. Don't disagree, all the more reason to trade him in the right deal if a team really believes he can be.
    3. See #2
    4. No, he didn't bomb in ST last year at all. He was moved to the 'pen because of injuries there.
    5. So trade Corcino and/or Cingrani. And I disagree- Cingrani DOES look to be ready at some point this year, as he already pitched and pitched well with the big club in September. Corcino could be ready at some point this year as well. Why hang onto three guys for one potential vacancy in the rotation in 2014?!

    I'm not trading them for the sake of getting rid of them, but I'm advocating being proactive to help source an impact OF which we desperately need (much more than we need an 8th starter for insurance).
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #50
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    So what gives? Why do people want to squat on 8 major league ready SP when we have significant holes to fill in the OF?
    I can live with the argument of not "selling low" on Leake, that we might need him to complement some of Chapman's innings for this year. But if that's the case, why not "sell high" on one of the pitching prospects like Corcino and Cingrani? There are only so many innings to pitch in a given season.
    There's probably a general sense that the team is going to need more SP depth in 2013. And Chapman probably isn't ticketed for a full season in the rotation. Mind you, Redmond and Lecure provide depth as well as prospects like Cingrani and Corcino.

    But, IMO, the biggest thing when you deal from (perceived) pitching depth is getting the right return. For instance, Homer Bailey as a principal for Justin Upton? Sure. Bailey for Shin-Soo Choo? No. Tony Cingrani for Dexter Fowler? I'm on board. Mike Leake as a throw-in? Absolutely not. Like Kc61 said, his value is low at the moment. I'd add that a good season, and Leake is more than capable of having one in 2013, would send his market through the roof.

    If I'm Jocketty, Corcino is my trading chip of preference, at least among my pitching options. I think he deserves the prospect pub he gets, but I'm not sold on him. So I'd be trying to figure out whether he can get me what I'm looking for in the OF. Offers for other pitchers I'd be collecting in my "Under Consideration" file.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #51
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I'm just flat out crazy, but I really have an odd feeling that Stubbs puts together a monster season this year. K's way down, BB's way up, BA way up, HR's career high, etc. It just seems to me in the past that he's performed at his best when he's got competition pushing him. Moving Hamilton to CF is going to do just that IMO.
    I don't think you are crazy.

    I don't like the odds of him posting career highs across the board, but I would not be at all surprised to see him return to his pre-2012 career norms. Something in the range of a 320+ OBP and 400+ SLG. That would elevate him from offensive sinkhole to something approaching league average for his position.

    That said, I wouldn't want to bank on him bouncing back. I'd rather the Reds find someone to share the load with him just in case he sucks again.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 12-05-2012 at 02:00 PM.

  8. #52
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    There's probably a general sense that the team is going to need more SP depth in 2013. And Chapman probably isn't ticketed for a full season in the rotation. Mind you, Redmond and Lecure provide depth as well as prospects like Cingrani and Corcino.

    But, IMO, the biggest thing when you deal from (perceived) pitching depth is getting the right return. For instance, Homer Bailey as a principal for Justin Upton? Sure. Bailey for Shin-Soo Choo? No. Tony Cingrani for Dexter Fowler? I'm on board. Mike Leake as a throw-in? Absolutely not. Like Kc61 said, his value is low at the moment. I'd add that a good season, and Leake is more than capable of having one in 2013, would send his market through the roof.

    If I'm Jocketty, Corcino is my trading chip of preference, at least among my pitching options. I think he deserves the prospect pub he gets, but I'm not sold on him. So I'd be trying to figure out whether he can get me what I'm looking for in the OF. Offers for other pitchers I'd be collecting in my "Under Consideration" file.
    Totally agree- not saying trade any of these guys for the sake of trading them. But let's be proactive in finding the right deal, because we certainly have a strength (that is in high demand) and need to address a weakness (where there is plenty of supply) - the very reason for the existence of the concept of trades.

    With Chapman coming to the rotation, I'm actually neutral between dealing Cingrani vs. Corcino. One could be seen as redundant with Chapman while the other is redundant with Cueto, at least from a style perspective (hopefully performance too!)

    Leake is my least favorite pitcher of the bunch because I see limited upside and a cost increase in the near future. However your point is well taken against selling low.

    I'd be fine moving any of those three guys in a deal for Ellsbury or Choo. In the case of Upton and/or Fowler, I'd even consider moving two of them.

    I probably wouldn't trade Bailey for any of them unless another high upside arm is coming back (ie Bauer or Pomeranz).
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-05-2012 at 02:00 PM.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Leake is my least favorite pitcher of the bunch because I see limited upside and a cost increase in the near future. However your point is well taken against selling low.
    As Sir_Charles brought up with Stubbs having a potential bounce-back season, the same holds true for Leake IMO.

    I really don't get why people are so quick to give up on him. He is just one year removed from posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.175 WHIP and has an elite bat for his position. Yes, his 2012 was lackluster and uninspiring, but this is a kid who has posted three straight seasons of league average-ish pitching before his 25th birthday, all without the benefit of being able to hone his skills in the minor leagues. Do you have any idea how incredibly rare that is?

    I could definitely see him taking a big step forward in 2013 much like Homer Bailey did in 2012.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 12-05-2012 at 02:55 PM.

  10. #54
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    As Sir_Charles brought up with Stubbs having a potential bounce-back season, the same holds true for Leake IMO.

    I really don't get why people are so quick to give up on him. He is just one year removed from posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.175 ERA and has an elite bat for his position. Yes, his 2012 was lackluster and uninspiring, but this is a kid who has posted three straight seasons of league average-ish pitching before his 25th birthday, all without the benefit of being able to hone his skills in the minor leagues. Do you have any idea how incredibly rare that is?

    I could definitely see him taking a big step forward in 2013 much like Homer Bailey did in 2012.
    There are a lot of differences between Leake and Bailey.

    I think Leake is an asset as a league average starter, but I just don't think he has much upside beyond that. Unlike Bailey, he never projected to better than a #3/#4 starter, so I don't see why he suddenly would become one.

    And while I agree he has an elite bat for his position, so did Micah Owings and Bill Gullickson.

    However like Bailey, he is going to start to get expensive after next year. And I'd rather keep expensive pitchers like Cueto, Latos and Bailey.
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  11. #55
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    With Chapman coming to the rotation, I'm actually neutral between dealing Cingrani vs. Corcino.
    I'm not. Cingrani's much taller, left-handed, has better peripherals and has already gotten out some big-leaguers. For these reasons I can see making a two-in-the-bush argument for Cingrani over Leake, though I'm not sure I agree. But I'm certain that Corcino's well behind both of them.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  12. #56
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    There are a lot of differences between Leake and Bailey.

    I think Leake is an asset as a league average starter, but I just don't think he has much upside beyond that. Unlike Bailey, he never projected to better than a #3/#4 starter, so I don't see why he suddenly would become one.

    And while I agree he has an elite bat for his position, so did Micah Owings and Bill Gullickson.

    However like Bailey, he is going to start to get expensive after next year. And I'd rather keep expensive pitchers like Cueto, Latos and Bailey.
    Projections are meaningless once a player has established himself as a major leaguer. I'm sure no one ever projected R.A. Dickey to be a Cy Young winner and top of the rotation stud, but he is. There are dozens of examples of guys who were not considered elite prospects who became elite pitchers. Heck, the Reds own Johnny Cueto was often cited as being 'too small' to start and MOR guy at best even if he did start.

    Leake is a guy who is already league average and is still a baby in terms of learning his craft. I find it ludicrous to believe he can't get better just because some scout didn't project him as a TOR guy. As Dickey proved this season, you don't have to be overpowering to be a TOR pitcher. Deception, guile, control, and consistency can go a long way. IMO, Leake still has a lot of room for improvement as he gains experience. If there was ever a pitcher who could make a case for being rushed to majors and having to take his lumps, it is Mike Leake.

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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    As Sir_Charles brought up with Stubbs having a potential bounce-back season, the same holds true for Leake IMO.

    I really don't get why people are so quick to give up on him. He is just one year removed from posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.175 WHIP and has an elite bat for his position. Yes, his 2012 was lackluster and uninspiring, but this is a kid who has posted three straight seasons of league average-ish pitching before his 25th birthday, all without the benefit of being able to hone his skills in the minor leagues. Do you have any idea how incredibly rare that is?

    I could definitely see him taking a big step forward in 2013 much like Homer Bailey did in 2012.
    Nobody's giving up on Leake. But right now the Reds have no left fielder and a CF tandem consisting of .610 OPS Stubbs and .22 BB/K rate Heisey.

    People are just focusing on how to fill these positions with players who will help the team win the Central again and go deeper into the playoffs. If the Reds make a trade, they will need to give up value presumably.

  14. #58
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    Projections are meaningless once a player has established himself as a major leaguer. I'm sure no one ever projected R.A. Dickey to be a Cy Young winner and top of the rotation stud, but he is. There are dozens of examples of guys who were not considered elite prospects who became elite pitchers. Heck, the Reds own Johnny Cueto was often cited as being 'too small' to start and MOR guy at best even if he did start.

    Leake is a guy who is already league average and is still a baby in terms of learning his craft. I find it ludicrous to believe he can't get better just because some scout didn't project him as a TOR guy. As Dickey proved this season, you don't have to be overpowering to be a TOR pitcher. Deception, guile, control, and consistency can go a long way. IMO, Leake still has a lot of room for improvement as he gains experience. If there was ever a pitcher who could make a case for being rushed to majors and having to take his lumps, it is Mike Leake.
    Um, not sure if you know this but RA Dickey is a knuckleballer.

    Those guys don't usually fit typical "projection standards" especially when he didn't even throw the knuckleball when he was first drafted.

    As far as other guys exceeding their projected ceilings, sure it can happen (as it did with Cueto). But there is nothing about Mike Leake that suggests he'll ever be a TOR starter. Nothing.

    IMO, he might get a little bit better, but he'll never be more than a #3 starter at best, and likely a #4 guy if you ask me. Those have value, but as Kc said above, you need to deal value to get value.
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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    IMO, he might get a little bit better, but he'll never be more than a #3 starter at best, and likely a #4 guy if you ask me. Those have value, but as Kc said above, you need to deal value to get value.
    Leake has already reached the level of a #3 starter. He was 29th in the NL in ERA+ in 2011, 36th in 2012, and would have ranked 36th in 2010 if he had enough innings to qualify. That puts him squarely in the ranks of #3 starters in the NL already and he hasn't even turned 25 yet. I don't think he's ever going to be a guy who can put up a monster 150 ERA+ season (Cy Young contender), but I think he can become a guy who is consistently over 100 ERA+ (quality #3 starter) with the occasional 120+ ERA season (quality #2, borderline #1).

    As far as trading value to get value, Leake's value is at an all-time low. He's the last guy I would want to trade right now. I'd rather trade someone who is likely to bring a better return. Trading Leake right now doesn't bring much in return, and IMO he is way too good to be used as a throw in (as many of the proposed trades on RZ seem to do). If I were the Reds, I'd be busting my hump right now to sign him to a contract extension while his value is depressed.

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    Re: Centerfield 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm leery of Ellsbury. The thing he has going for him is he needs a big season to get himself a big contract. Marks against him are that he's injury-prone and he hasn't been a consistent producer at the plate. He's a real crapshoot.

    I'd be hesitant to part with Leake for him. I subscribe to the notion that Leake's best years are in front of him and, given that he's been a solid pitcher to date, that's a guy I don't want to part with for a one-year fix. Make it Corcino instead and I warm up to the deal a whole lot more.
    There are things I like about Ellsbury -- the upside (obviously), the one-year commitment (if it works, great; if not, it's over soon), the left-handed bat, the fit at the top of the lineup and, potentially, a smooth transition to left if the Reds sign him beyond 2013 and Hamilton emerges.

    Having said all that, he's still a huge risk and I'm afraid the Sox will expect compensation commensurate with the MVP candidate Ellsbury and not the injury-prone, mostly average Ellsbury. Leake, an effective, cost-controlled starter seems like a high price to pay -- but at the same time, I'm not sure the Sox will be interested even if that's the Reds' offer. He isn't their kind of guy; they don't seem to value No. 4 starters. And there's no way I'd trade Homer for him.

    Corcino? I just don't know enough to say yes or no. But that seems more palatable for the Reds -- even if dealing for prospects doesn't seem like a Red Sox move. I guess I'm saying I wouldn't mind rolling the dice on Ellsbury, but I'm struggling to see a trade match that makes sense from both teams' perspectives.


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