Chapman to start? Maybe not

[AtomicDumpling]

I'm not against making Chapman a starter, and in a vacuum the move would have my full support.

But I do admit to real concern about this move for this ballclub this season.

I look at this lineup and see, finally, the lefty righty balance the team has lacked. Better OBP. The removal of all the Stubbs Ks. Other than CF defense, I see a ballclub that really seems top notch.

So now, we take a key element out of the late inning bullpen. We leave Brox and Marshall as the two main late inning guys. There's even a chance Hoover won't be in the pen, which IMO compounds the problem - he has late inning stuff.

I said last year that I thought the Reds bullpen was overrated in the sense that, remove Chappy's numbers, suddenly the group doesn't appear so special. Now the Reds are actually going to do that, and I think it could have a huge impact.

The other concern is how much we can expect from Aroldis as a starter in the year of this switch. Yes, for the long term it may bear fruit, but I hate potentially to have the pitching fall back for this season which is so very promising.

Part of my view is that I really wasn't dazzled by Brox last year. He didn't seem to be comfortable pitching multiple games in a row and at time seemed hittable (which Chapman was not). Jonathan can help solve my concern with a lights out season. Hoover can help solve my concern as well if he pitches in the late innings and does well.

I see this as a very tough call for the Reds. I'm not really against it, I'm just holding my breath.

Those are all valid concerns, but they are also removing 179 innings of Mike Leake's 4.58 ERA from the starting rotation, which should help to improve the rotation's overall stats and increase the average size of the lead the rotation hands off to the bullpen to preserve.

The Reds have decided to have one of their best pitchers pitch more innings and have their weakest pitcher throw fewer innings.

Upgrading the rotation means the bullpen will have more leads to protect and those leads are going to be bigger and easier to protect. So removing the Missile from the bullpen and putting him into the rotation actually makes the bullpen's job easier in some ways.

[Kc61]

Those are all valid concerns, but they are also removing 179 innings of Mike Leake's 4.58 ERA from the starting rotation, which should help to improve the rotation's overall stats and increase the average size of the lead the rotation hands off to the bullpen to preserve.

The Reds have decided to have one of their best pitchers pitch more innings and have their weakest pitcher throw fewer innings.

Upgrading the rotation means the bullpen will have more leads to protect and those leads are going to be bigger and easier to protect. So removing the Missile from the bullpen and putting him into the rotation actually makes the bullpen's job easier in some ways.

I understand the benefits. To me, there are three reasons to make Chapman a starter.

1. If he becomes a true TOR starter, Chapman's value to the team is maximized.

2. Some relievers have short careers, particularly hard throwers who are heavily used. Don't want that to happen to Chappy.

3. Leake had an off year in 2012 and Chapman might upgrade Leake's spot or possibly a different starter's spot and very soon.

I also understand that you can't wait forever to make the move.

Having said all that, I disagree with those who think it is an obvious decision. I think it's a tough call for the reasons I gave previously.

[REDREAD]

Signing Broxton for 3 years really wasn't one of the smartest things ever done to begin with....

Disagree.
Sure, Broxton got a nice payday, but really the only alternative would've been to trade prospects for another closer if you wanted the option of Chapman to start.

I know there's a school of thought that says "you can always find waiver wire fodder and turn it into a good closer" (not saying this is your stand jojo, I don't know).. but when you look at the history, for every Jeff Shaw, there's probably 10 mediocre closers.

A strong bullpen is extremely important towards advancing in the postseason. The Braves of the 90's never realized that. Walt does realize it.

The Reds had the money to give Broxton. I guess I don't see what the opportunity cost was or will be? Broxton is getting 7 million/year.. Maybe we could've traded some prospects and got a guy that would've saved maybe 10 million over the next 3 years, but that comes at a cost as well.

I think Dusty is hedging his bets on Chapman starting, so that if Chapman can't do it, the fanbase won't turn on Chapman. Dusty does a darn good job protecting his players. He can even fool most internet message boards. Dusty doesn't care if people call him an idiot when he protects his guys.

[Raisor]

I think Dusty has made it clear he wants Chapman in the bullpen. That's where he is going to wind up.

I think it's a mistake, I think it hurts the team in both the long term and the short term. That being said, Chapman is going to be money in whatever roll they put him in.

It's like owning a high performance car, being in Germany, and NOT driving on the autobahn. Sure, it's still a high performance car. Sure it's still going to be fun to drive, but you're not getting everything you can out of it.

[joshua]

Keeping him in the bullpen would make it easier to extend him though...so there's that. If the Reds have their own Mariano Rivera for the next few years, I wouldn't be too torn up about it. We have plenty of starting pitching coming up anyways. This is a situation where the Reds really can't lose. I like those types of situations.

They could have a press conference tomorrow saying Chapman will only be used for throwing t-shirts into the stands at 100 MPH during the 7th inning stretch for all I care. That's still better than going into spring training with Eric Milton holding down he #1 slot in the rotation.

[dougdirt]

[QUOTE=joshua;2805538]Keeping him in the bullpen would make it easier to extend him though...so there's that./QUOTE]

Maybe not though. Chapman has long stated he wants to start. Why would he re-sign with a team who won't give him that chance if someone else would be willing to give him that chance?

[_Sir_Charles_]

Maybe not though. Chapman has long stated he wants to start. Why would he re-sign with a team who won't give him that chance if someone else would be willing to give him that chance?

While this has been true in the past, that recent quote from Aroldis makes it sound like he prefers closing now to starting. (I'll try to find that quote)

~edit~ Found it.

If Chapman has any misgivings or second thoughts about the move, he’s in no mood to share them. But when asked which role he would prefer if given a choice -- closer or starter -- he provided some telling insight into his frame of mind.

“If you have to choose, you choose what you’ve been successful with," he said through his interpreter. “I haven’t started in the big leagues. As a closer, it was great. If you have to choose, you choose where you’ve been great."

Lest someone think that Chapman is quietly resistant to changing job descriptions, Vera quickly set the record straight.

“You have to understand Chapman," Vera said. “He’s going to do what they tell him to do. If they tell him tomorrow to go out and take fly balls in center field, he’s going to do it. He doesn’t question. He’s a soldier. He just works. He doesn’t create controversy, because he doesn’t think that’s going to take him anywhere."

[Blitz Dorsey]

Chapman sounds like he loves money. Who doesn't, right? But Chapman sounds like a guy who REALLY loves money.

If he's on the fence about whether he wants to be a starter or not, someone needs to get in his ear (preferably someone who speaks Spanish) and inform him that he'll make a lot more $$ as a starter than a reliever in this biz. Not that closers are poor, but top-line starters are paid a hell of a lot more than top-line closers.

Just food for thought for when he looks into purchasing his next Lamborghini.

[dougdirt]

Chapman sounds like he loves money. Who doesn't, right? But Chapman sounds like a guy who REALLY loves money.

If he's on the fence about whether he wants to be a starter or not, someone needs to get in his ear (preferably someone who speaks Spanish) and inform him that he'll make a lot more $$ as a starter than a reliever in this biz. Not that closers are poor, but top-line starters are paid a hell of a lot more than top-line closers.

Just food for thought for when he looks into purchasing his next Lamborghini.

Pretty much. I mean top shelf closers get what, 10-12 a year? Top shelf starters are getting 20-27 a year.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Pretty much. I mean top shelf closers get what, 10-12 a year? Top shelf starters are getting 20-27 a year.

Even mediocre starters (I'm looking at you, Edwin Jackson) get $13 mil per year for four years. OK, Jackson is better than "mediocre" ... but not by much.

[Unassisted]

Chapman sounds like he loves money. Who doesn't, right? But Chapman sounds like a guy who REALLY loves money.

If he's on the fence about whether he wants to be a starter or not, someone needs to get in his ear (preferably someone who speaks Spanish) and inform him that he'll make a lot more $$ as a starter than a reliever in this biz.

The magazine article makes him sound like a guy who doesn't think much of long-term implications. Thus, what likely matters most to him is that in 2013, he'll get paid the same money no matter what pitching role he takes for the Reds. So from his perspective, he might as well take the role in which he already knows he can succeed.

[Vottomatic]

The reason I know Chapman will succeed as a starter is because Dusty thinks it's a bad idea.

[OnBaseMachine]

Sounds like Chapman's changeup was impressive today. From Mark Sheldon:

Later on another field was the latest reminder that Chapman can a force of nature. After a couple of warm-up pitches, Chapman fired a changeup to catcher Miguel Olivo, who could be heard muttering “damn” to himself. Yes, I said Chapman “fired” a changeup because even that had some heat. No one made any real hard contact against him during the session.

Needing to have more than a fastball to make a successful transition to the rotation, it appears Chapman has expanded his bag of tricks. Besides the fastball and changeup, he had a slider, a two-seam fastball and also showed a split-fingered fastball. If he gets that pitch honed, he could be very tough as a starter.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2013/...an-in-live-bp/

[wheels]

If Chapman can work a decent change and splitter into his mix, he's going to be insanely good.

I really hope he makes it as a starter. I wanna see what other cool stuff that guy can do on the mound.

[Superdude]

If Chapman can work a decent change and splitter into his mix, he's going to be insanely good.

I really hope he makes it as a starter. I wanna see what other cool stuff that guy can do on the mound.

Not sure what to gather from Miguel Olivo muttering to himself, but interesting to hear change AND split. I figured he might just have a splitter-type changeup, but I guess it is two different pitches if this report is reliable.