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Thread: Chapman to start? Maybe not

  1. #106
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    It's likely that Broxton would be elsewhere had not the Reds been willing to give him the contract they did. Some might call it an overpay, but you have to weigh that against the team's approach as a whole. Have other needs gone lacking? Is the team only making a half-hearted attempt to win, or is it going all out (in which case, if successful, overpays get erased at the bottom line)?

    There is a wide gulf between what Krivsky et al gave Cordero, given the team the Reds were, and what this FO is giving Broxton to be the closer (and/or closer insurance) for this team.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  4. #107
    a Red in Yankeetown elfmanvt07's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I make it sound as if it's pretty rare and extraordinary thing for a pitcher to add a pitch in a span of days that not only is major league quality, he possesses exceptional command of it and it dramatically changes his true talent. The evidence for this rare event is 13 innings in which he had a 14 k/BB rate and a BB rate roughly 3 walks/9 lower than his career line.

    I'm not sure how the default isn't healthy skepticism.

    Has anyone argued he'll suck eggs? No. If David Weathers and Ryan Franklin can be classified as closers, Broxton can probably manage. But factually disproved arguments that his velocity increased as the season progressed and the notion that he pulled a plus pitch out of his back pocket after being traded tend to muddy expectations of Broxton's ability to be a true high leverage arm for the next three years IMHO.

    So I make it sound as if he still has a lot to still prove concerning his cutter in general and his new-found plus/plus command. I make it sound like given enough innings, regression to the mean is the safest bet.

    It's just not that hard to put together a solid bullpen and three year contracts to relievers are rolls of the dice-very few have been enlightened over the the years. That said, a 3 yr/$21M commitment is alot better than a 4 yr/$46M commitment.
    At no point was I assuming that his cutter is a finished or a plus pitch. But, I also am willing to entertain other ideas than regressing to the mean. Forgive me for taking your previous posts as "the facts can't possibly lead anywhere other than my opinion." I'm willing to attribute some of his success to Hanigan, potentially some to perhaps a different approach on the mound, or confidence in his defense. I'm not saying we'll see 6.67 K/BB again, but I'm not willing to write off him having a few of his better seasons ahead of him.
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  5. #108
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    I'm not willing to write off him having a few of his better seasons ahead of him.
    Agreed, especially given that he had surgery not long ago.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  7. #109
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Sorry if this has already been posted, but at quick glance I didn't see it anywhere. It's a pretty extensive and informative story on the whole package of Chapman.

    http://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/fe...spx?ID=1885174
    One of the best, most-insightful stories I've read in a long time.

    There are definitely a lot of concerns with Chapman's mental makeup. However, that $24 million lawsuit is complete bunk -- Chapman has no chance at losing that case. They would have to prove that he intended for those guys to be tortured in Cuba? And the case is being heard in a U.S. court. Good luck with all that. I guarantee you the U.S. court will pin this on the corrupt/backwards Cuban government. Like it's Chapman's fault these guys got tortured.

    Anyway, still thrilled we have him, but this story was definitely an insightful look into the "real" Aroldis Chapman.

  8. #110
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I make it sound as if it's pretty rare and extraordinary thing for a pitcher to add a pitch in a span of days that not only is major league quality, he possesses exceptional command of it and it dramatically changes his true talent. The evidence for this rare event is 13 innings in which he had a 14 k/BB rate and a BB rate roughly 3 walks/9 lower than his career line.

    I'm not sure how the default isn't healthy skepticism.
    It might be rare, but I'd hardly consider what Broxton did extraordinary. He didn't learn some plus-plus changeup in a matter of a few days. He learned a pitch that's essentially just a harder version of the slider he's been throwing his whole career.

    And you're portraying this 13 inning sample as the linchpin of the pro-Broxton argument when it really isn't an integral part of what we're saying at all. Throw it out if you want. All anyone is saying is that we watched him add a good cutter last year with our own two eyes and the early signs were encouraging. No more, no less.

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  10. #111
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Pretty sure Jocketty has earned the benefit of the doubt on the Broxton signing.

    Also, $7 mil per year is not all that much cash for a closer. Hell, we paid Coco $12 mil per year.
    Last edited by Blitz Dorsey; 02-17-2013 at 01:08 PM.

  11. #112
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Good post AD, but also let's be careful not confuse cause and effect. Why go guys become closers? It's because they're generally very good pitchers who simply don't have what it takes to be a starter. And while sometimes that's because they only have 1 really good pitch, it's often because they simply aren't physically capable of holding up for a long time.

    So that's to say, it's not just that closers break down because of the rigors of closing are so tough. It's that part of the reason many closers ended up as closers is because they didn't have the physical makeup to be a starter.

    Chapman did not wind up in the bullpen because of an inability to go 6+ innings for 30+ times a year. It was done out of expediency, to make use of a the guy's arm as quickly as possible while he was under contract at a time when there wasn't a spot in the rotation for the Reds to hold for him.

    That's not to say you're wrong of course; closing may be more physically demanding than starting for some guys. But when we think about relievers as a group, we should remember that most of them are there because they proved unable to be effective starters.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #113
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Chapman was quoted yesterday saying (this is a paraphrase) that he's never been a starter in the majors, he's been successful in the pen, if he had to choose he would stick with what he's been successful at. But it's up to the team.

    This morning, on XM radio's baseball channel, I heard the host say that the Reds are one of the top few World Series contenders this year and he wonders whether they should risk trouble in the ninth inning. He wasn't overly comfortable with Brox, suggested that the Reds should have gone for Rafael Soriano if they needed a new closer.

    This question is getting a lot of play in the media and it's a tough one. It would be easy if the Reds weren't contenders this year. It would be too bad if this becomes a "learning" year for Chapman as a starter, and the Reds suffer short term and potentially lose the chance at a championship right now.

    I view this as very much a long-term v. short-term question.

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  14. #114
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    Chapman giving us 130-160 innings of #3 or #4 production from the five spot and his arm not going under the knifw is what it would take for me to consider this experiment a success for 2013. I think that's more than possible...in fact I'd put money on him doing it.

    If Broxton falls flat on his face as a closer, it's not like we don't have options. We have enough pitching to have three guys who we can plug into the fifth spot in the rotation and a few guys we can have close in a pinch...

    My bigger concern is how unlistenable 700 will be and how unreadable Reds forum will be the first time Broxton blows a save or Chapman has a bad outing. Not looking forward to that at all.

  15. #115
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    My bigger concern is how unlistenable 700 will be and how unreadable Reds forum will be the first time Broxton blows a save or Chapman has a bad outing. Not looking forward to that at all.
    The hindsight visionaries will be out in droves for sure. As much as I disagree with KC, he's at least not hedging his opinion on the issue. Him and jojo have a free ticket to laugh at all the little people when Chapman can't get out of the 5th inning and Broxton's shiny new cutter's getting smacked all over the yard.

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  17. #116
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    It might be rare, but I'd hardly consider what Broxton did extraordinary. He didn't learn some plus-plus changeup in a matter of a few days. He learned a pitch that's essentially just a harder version of the slider he's been throwing his whole career.

    And you're portraying this 13 inning sample as the linchpin of the pro-Broxton argument when it really isn't an integral part of what we're saying at all. Throw it out if you want. All anyone is saying is that we watched him add a good cutter last year with our own two eyes and the early signs were encouraging. No more, no less.
    What's most ironic about continually bringing up a 13-inning sample is that all people have to go on with Broxton not being the "Broxton of old" so to speak is a 35-inning sample coming off surgery while in Kansas City. If you ignore the 35 innings in K.C., Broxton's track record is one where it's foolish not to expect his numbers to get better.

    I'd say it's not more of a narrative to think his repertoire may have re-invented his career than it is to think his career could not get back closer to where it was before surgery anyhow.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  18. #117
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    The hindsight visionaries will be out in droves for sure. As much as I disagree with KC, he's at least not hedging his opinion on the issue. Him and jojo have a free ticket to laugh at all the little people when Chapman can't get out of the 5th inning and Broxton's shiny new cutter's getting smacked all over the yard.
    I've neither argued Chapman can't successfully transition to the rotation nor that Broxton can't save games.

    If it were I, Chapman would be groomed for a starting role and it would've happened a couple of seasons ago. In some ways the Reds were kind of victims of their success when it comes to Chapman's development. He's simply too good to not be used and they were too good not to use him.

    BTW, I don't really do the gotcha thing (unless someone is painfully begging for it). If either Chapman or Broxton fail, it's neither a happy nor a good thing.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  19. #118
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    For those wondering what Chapman's changeup/splitter looks like, watch this video below of him striking Jose Reyes out on Opening Day last year.

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video...93885&c_id=mlb
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  21. #119
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    The hindsight visionaries will be out in droves for sure. As much as I disagree with KC, he's at least not hedging his opinion on the issue. Him and jojo have a free ticket to laugh at all the little people when Chapman can't get out of the 5th inning and Broxton's shiny new cutter's getting smacked all over the yard.
    I split the dfference. I'm pretty cool with Broxton closing (my bigger concern is who pitches the late innings on days when either Broxton or Marshall can't go). Chapman, OTOH, is going to have to get that slider over the plate. I just don't see him getting guys to chase it when they see him 3 times per game. Now when they see him once or twice a year, they chase. That slider isa good pitch when guys chase it, but as a starter, its going to have to be a good pitch when guys take it as well. I'm not convinced.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  22. #120
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    Re: Chapman to start? Maybe not

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    The hindsight visionaries will be out in droves for sure. As much as I disagree with KC, he's at least not hedging his opinion on the issue. Him and jojo have a free ticket to laugh at all the little people when Chapman can't get out of the 5th inning and Broxton's shiny new cutter's getting smacked all over the yard.
    Since you refer to my view, let me clarify that I'm not against making Chapman a starter, and in a vacuum the move would have my full support.

    But I do admit to real concern about this move for this ballclub this season.

    I look at this lineup and see, finally, the lefty righty balance the team has lacked. Better OBP. The removal of all the Stubbs Ks. Other than CF defense, I see a ballclub that really seems top notch.

    So now, we take a key element out of the late inning bullpen. We leave Brox and Marshall as the two main late inning guys. There's even a chance Hoover won't be in the pen, which IMO compounds the problem - he has late inning stuff.

    I said last year that I thought the Reds bullpen was overrated in the sense that, remove Chappy's numbers, suddenly the group doesn't appear so special. Now the Reds are actually going to do that, and I think it could have a negative impact.

    The other concern is how much we can expect from Aroldis as a starter in the year of this switch. Yes, for the long term it may bear fruit, but I hate potentially to have the pitching fall back for this season which is so very promising.

    Part of my view is that I thought Broxton was good but not great last year. He didn't seem to be comfortable pitching multiple games in a row and at time seemed hittable (which Chapman was not). Jonathan can help solve my concern with a lights out season. Hoover can help solve my concern if he pitches in the late innings and does well.

    I see this as a very tough call for the Reds. I'm not really against it, I'm just holding my breath.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-17-2013 at 09:28 PM.

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