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Thread: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    I thought this might be a fun prediction thread.

    Use whatever numbers you want.. predict what you think Chapman is going to do as a starter this season.

    I'm going to say 150 IP, 4.30 ERA.. He'll have some good games and stinkers as well.
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    Member dunner13's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    175IP 16-4 , 2.89 ERA 194K's
    and leads us to a World Series by dominating in the playoffs, might be shooting a little high but hey you have to stay optimistic...

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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'm going to say 150 IP, 4.30 ERA.. He'll have some good games and stinkers as well.
    That's about what I think. I'd probably go a little lower on both the innings and the ERA, but that is in the ballpark. He'll tantalize with some AMAZING performances, have a few awful starts that jack up his ERA, and make at least one trip to the DL before having to be shut down early with arm fatigue.

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    GO REDS *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    As a starting pitcher:

    80 IP, 80 Ks, 35 BBs, 3.75 ERA

    As a relief pitcher:

    35 IP, 50 Ks, 15 BBs, 2.25 ERA
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    120 Innings, 120 K's, 80 BB's, 5.25 ERA
    "I can still throw it in the 70s. And I can throw it in the 80s if I don't want to comb my hair for a week." - Bob Feller at age 66 when asked how hard he could throw.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    28 starts, 168 innings, 3.68 era, 213 k's
    Last edited by klw; 12-07-2012 at 01:20 PM.

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    4-6 75IP 5.25 ERA 85K 60BB

    DL on Memorial Day with Arm/Shoulder/Elbow problems. Reds medical staff monkeys around, surgery in September. Doesn't pitch again until September 2014.

    I am really worried about him holding up in the rotation. His mechanics get funky when he is tired.
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    I often find it useful to evaluate starters on a start-by-start basis rather than by their accumulated totals.

    I think Chapman will give us somewhere in the realm of two-dozen starts with zero complete games (assuming Dusty doesn't slag his arm) and an average somewhere around 5.5 innings/start. Of those two-dozen starts, I expect about a third to be official 'quality starts', another third to be decent starts where he just misses the six inning cutoff for a QS or gives up one too many runs, and a final third to be flat-out bad performances.

    When you add it all up, I think he will be an occasionally brilliant but mostly inconsistent starter in 2013 and will wind up with 'meh' overall numbers. He might eventually be a staff ace, but that won't happen until 2014 or 2015 if it does at all. IMO, 2013 team would be better off with him in the bullpen, but I understand the Red's desire to see if he can become the kind of guy to contend for Cy Young awards year after year. Finding the answer to that question might be worth sacrificing a some bullpen production in 2013.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 12-07-2012 at 01:22 PM.

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    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    165 ip, 180 Ks, 70 BBs, 4.04 ERA
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    I could see something along the lines of 12-6 3.25 era 165 innings 190-200 k's.

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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    He won't be as good as his numbers were in a closer's role; then again, if they were, he'd be Walter Johnson.

    I'm going to guess he gets pulled in at least one game where he hasn't given up a hit because he's approaching 120 pitches.

    I think he'll be the best fifth starter in the league. When healthy.
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    4-6 75IP 5.25 ERA 85K 60BB

    DL on Memorial Day with Arm/Shoulder/Elbow problems. Reds medical staff monkeys around, surgery in September. Doesn't pitch again until September 2014.

    I am really worried about him holding up in the rotation. His mechanics get funky when he is tired.
    So, he'll go 4-6, with 75 ininngs pitched, in 8 starts.

    Wow!!!

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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    6-4, 4.30 era. 130 ip, 150k.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    24 starts, 20 relief appearances 150 innings, 3.40 era, 1.35 WHIP, 170 Ks. He starts out strong, but struggles mightily with control over the summer and gets put back in the pen in August where he finishes the season. He never makes another start as a Red after 2013.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Bullpen or whatever RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Chapman's numbers as a starter in 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    24 starts, 20 relief appearances 150 innings, 3.40 era, 1.35 WHIP, 170 Ks. He starts out strong, but struggles mightily with control over the summer and gets put back in the pen in August where he finishes the season. He never makes another start as a Red after 2013.
    Goodness, that's a depressing outlook.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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