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Thread: Jacoby Ellsbury?

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  1. #18
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Sep 2000

    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    All park factors are for every hitter, so they are rather meaningless when appllied to individual hitters. Every hitter is going to react differently to every park. Sure lots of right handed power hitter get lots of flyballs turned into hits because of the green monster, but a slap hitter like Pegan probably won't.

    Sure, a few lefites with great bat control like Runnels or Boggs can master the uniqueness of Femway, but Pegan ain't one of them. A slap hitter like Pegan is going to benefit more from a big ballpark than from a small one like Fenway. I'm pretty sure that if you put Pegan in Fenway, his BA would go down.
    LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.

    And Pagan is no more of a slap hitter than Ellsbury is. They have an identical career OPS+ of 106. Neither takes a lot of walks (Pagan has a career 7.4% BB rate, Ellsbury is a 6.7%). Pagan even has a slightly higher career XBH% - 8.3% compared to 7.9%.

    I was actually being kind to Ellsbury when I said that outside of 2011 he's Angel Pagan. The truth is, if you wiped out Ellsbury's 2011 season, Pagan's got a clear advantage. Pagan doesn't have a lot of power, but he's been more consistent with it.

    Clearly you have mentally sorted these two in different boxes. You shouldn't have. Both are BA-driven players with nearly identical career percentages (at least when you adjust park-adjust them). Baseball-Reference even lists Pagan as the second-most comparable player to Ellsbury.
    Last edited by M2; 12-06-2012 at 01:55 PM.
    Wait until the year after next year.

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