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Thread: Jacoby Ellsbury?

  1. #61
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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  3. #62
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.
    Because most wouldn't trade him for one year of Ellsbury?
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #63
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Actually, it's the reverse.

    Parks with small outfields supress BA, because the outfielders have less ground to cover, making it harder for line drives to fall in. Most of the parks out west are BA hitters dreams, as flares drop into the vast outfield spaces regularly.

    The only advantage Pegan has between the parks in which they play is foul territory, but that's a very small advantage.

    And Pegan wasn't a regular in 2009. Only 88 games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #64
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.
    Hey now

  6. #65
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    If Bailey was included, and Stubbs, that would at least be payroll neutral. However, I'd expect some more coming back from Boston because Ellsbury is a large injury risk. I looked at Lars Anderson for LF, Kalish for OF help, both LHB, but have no idea if they're really any good. Bryce Brentz has some contact issues. I don't know, just not seeing it.

  7. #66
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.
    At a minimum, he's a strong trading chip. Do you blow that on a guy with some serious injury questions and only a year left on his contract?
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  8. #67
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    I'm not super keen on Bailey for Ellsbury, based on ages, dollars, etc.

    It just seems like a lot of people aren't willing to part with him for anything short of Felix Hernandez or Mike Trout.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  9. #68
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    Well, they are, but we already had plenty of evidence of that. And I almost can't blame them for it since the Punto trade. But I'm also just not convinced they want to trade Ellsbury unless someone does something almost as stupid as that.
    What is the story behind the Punto trade.. do you mean the giant salary dump to LA, or is there more to it than that.

    Just seems that they have a bizzare plan.. Sign Gomes for LF. Sign Victorino, then trade one year of Ellsbury for an young near ace pitcher.. Asking for Latos is just plain ludicrous. Now granted, this is just rumors, maybe they didn't really ask for that much.

    In the end, Ellsbury (if traded) is going to get less return than Span did. Same with Choo (I know the Indians are holding out for a lot).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  10. #69
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Actually, it's the reverse.

    Parks with small outfields supress BA, because the outfielders have less ground to cover, making it harder for line drives to fall in. Most of the parks out west are BA hitters dreams, as flares drop into the vast outfield spaces regularly.

    The only advantage Pegan has between the parks in which they play is foul territory, but that's a very small advantage.

    And Pegan wasn't a regular in 2009. Only 88 games.
    Here's the park factors for 2012 - http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfac...ort/hitsFactor. Fenway ranks second for hits. It is famously great for BA. It turned Pete Runnels into a two-time batting champion. Fenway has been a BA paradise for more than a century. I don't care what your theories are about what maybe makes a good BA park, Fenway is the gold standard.

    And AT&T and Citi Field bring up the rear of the pack.

    If you put Pagan's numbers through a stats neutralizer (e.g. adjust him as if his career had been played for the 2012 Red Sox) you get a career .298/.351/.448 slash line. Ellsbury is .297/.349/.442. It's the exact same tool set and an almost identical performance. They might as well be the same human.
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  11. #70
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    I wouldn't go that far, but they could have the same dad.

  12. #71
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Here's the park factors for 2012 - http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfac...ort/hitsFactor. Fenway ranks second for hits. It is famously great for BA. It turned Pete Runnels into a two-time batting champion. Fenway has been a BA paradise for more than a century. I don't care what your theories are about what maybe makes a good BA park, Fenway is the gold standard.

    And AT&T and Citi Field bring up the rear of the pack.

    If you put Pagan's numbers through a stats neutralizer (e.g. adjust him as if his career had been played for the 2012 Red Sox) you get a career .298/.351/.448 slash line. Ellsbury is .297/.349/.442. It's the exact same tool set and an almost identical performance. They might as well be the same human.
    All park factors are for every hitter, so they are rather meaningless when appllied to individual hitters. Every hitter is going to react differently to every park. Sure lots of right handed power hitter get lots of flyballs turned into hits because of the green monster, but a slap hitter like Pegan probably won't.

    Sure, a few lefites with great bat control like Runnels or Boggs can master the uniqueness of Femway, but Pegan ain't one of them. A slap hitter like Pegan is going to benefit more from a big ballpark than from a small one like Fenway. I'm pretty sure that if you put Pegan in Fenway, his BA would go down.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #72
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    What is the story behind the Punto trade.. do you mean the giant salary dump to LA, or is there more to it than that.

    Just seems that they have a bizzare plan.. Sign Gomes for LF. Sign Victorino, then trade one year of Ellsbury for an young near ace pitcher.. Asking for Latos is just plain ludicrous. Now granted, this is just rumors, maybe they didn't really ask for that much.

    In the end, Ellsbury (if traded) is going to get less return than Span did. Same with Choo (I know the Indians are holding out for a lot).
    Yes, the giant salary dump that gave them all this freedom to overpay Napoli, Victorino, and anyone else who will take a less than 4 year deal. And, their plan does seem bizarre, but I think they want to avoid any more big long term contracts unless it's for the absolute perfect player for them, and I don't see that guy out there right now. And I also believe they don't want to trade prospects or forfeit draft picks, but they can't go into 2013 with a $90M payroll, either. So, they overpay some decent players on shorter deals and see what they can do with that. I also agree with you about Ellsbury's trade value, which is why I don't expect him to be traded.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  14. #73
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I wouldn't go that far, but they could have the same dad.
    Ellsbury is more handsome, but they even have the free tacos for the 1st stolen base in the WS thing in common.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  15. #74
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Because most wouldn't trade him for one year of Ellsbury?
    The same way Cincy acquired one year of Marshall?

  16. #75
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The same way Cincy acquired one year of Marshall?
    Scott Boras and any type of quality season for Ellsbury would make it impossible to fit him into the budget on another contract.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.


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