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Thread: Jacoby Ellsbury?

  1. #76
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    All park factors are for every hitter, so they are rather meaningless when appllied to individual hitters. Every hitter is going to react differently to every park. Sure lots of right handed power hitter get lots of flyballs turned into hits because of the green monster, but a slap hitter like Pegan probably won't.

    Sure, a few lefites with great bat control like Runnels or Boggs can master the uniqueness of Femway, but Pegan ain't one of them. A slap hitter like Pegan is going to benefit more from a big ballpark than from a small one like Fenway. I'm pretty sure that if you put Pegan in Fenway, his BA would go down.
    LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.

    And Pagan is no more of a slap hitter than Ellsbury is. They have an identical career OPS+ of 106. Neither takes a lot of walks (Pagan has a career 7.4% BB rate, Ellsbury is a 6.7%). Pagan even has a slightly higher career XBH% - 8.3% compared to 7.9%.

    I was actually being kind to Ellsbury when I said that outside of 2011 he's Angel Pagan. The truth is, if you wiped out Ellsbury's 2011 season, Pagan's got a clear advantage. Pagan doesn't have a lot of power, but he's been more consistent with it.

    Clearly you have mentally sorted these two in different boxes. You shouldn't have. Both are BA-driven players with nearly identical career percentages (at least when you adjust park-adjust them). Baseball-Reference even lists Pagan as the second-most comparable player to Ellsbury.
    Last edited by M2; 12-06-2012 at 01:55 PM.
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  3. #77
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Scott Boras and any type of quality season for Ellsbury would make it impossible to fit him into the budget on another contract.
    The Reds have extended a lot of guys the past few years who many thought would have no shot of sticking around. If WJ acquires him for value, he must have a feeling on extending him.

  4. #78
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Reds have extended a lot of guys the past few years who many thought would have no shot of sticking around. If WJ acquires him for value, he must have a feeling on extending him.
    I agree with you in general, but with Billy H on the horizon, I see Ellsbury probably as a one year rental.
    I think if Ellsbury was signable on reasonable terms, the Red Sox would've already extended him (the way they are throwing money around).
    But maybe the reasons for Boston not extending him are not obvious, that's a possiblity.

    I got to think Ellsbury at bare minimum is going to want a deal like Pagan and Victorino got.. That's a bit rich for my blood when our best prospect plays CF.
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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    LH hitters feast on Fenway: David Ortiz, Mike Greenwell, Trot Nixon, Johnny Damon, Scott Cooper (Fenway made his entire career), Fred Lynn, Otis Nixon (switch-hitter, but his numbers as LH hitter during his season in Boston were far better), Troy O'Leary, Billy Goodman, Johnny Pesky, Doc Cramer. There's a century's worth of LH bats - slap hitters, power hitters and everything in between - who have enjoyed the BA benefits of Fenway Park. It's a great hitters park for everyone - no foul territory, big RF, deep to dead center, and you can bang hits off the wall no matter which side you hit from.

    And Pagan is no more of a slap hitter than Ellsbury is. They have an identical career OPS+ of 106. Neither takes a lot of walks (Pagan has a career 7.4% BB rate, Ellsbury is a 6.7%). Pagan even has a slightly higher career XBH% - 8.3% compared to 7.9%.

    I was actually being kind to Ellsbury when I said that outside of 2011 he's Angel Pagan. The truth is, if you wiped out Ellsbury's 2011 season, Pagan's got a clear advantage. Pagan doesn't have a lot of power, but he's been more consistent with it.

    Clearly you have mentally sorted these two in different boxes. You shouldn't have. Both are BA-driven players with nearly identical career percentages (at least when you adjust park-adjust them). Baseball-Reference even lists Pagan as the second-most comparable player to Ellsbury.
    I have seperated the two, for good reason.

    There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

    Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

    If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.
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  6. #80
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.
    I agree. That's why I said "Outside of 2011 ..." The question was what kind of player is Jacoby Ellsbury. The answer is that most of the time he's a player like Angel Pagan.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.
    One-year flukes are more misleading that career slash lines. Actually, one-year flukes tend to be the thing that make career totals misleading.

    And have you seen Brandon Phillips hit anything close to 30 HR since 2007? Joe Mauer hasn't been able to recapture his 2009 power. Jimmy Rollins hasn't been back in in 2007 MVP form since 2007. It's actually pretty common for a player to have a season that came out of the blue like Ellsbury did in 2011 and never get back there again. Chase Headley might have just done it in 2012.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.
    And if Ellsbury is putting up those numbers in Boston and Pagan is putting up those numbers in San Francisco it will effectively mean they had similar seasons. All you're really doing there is assuming one guy plays in a hitters park and one guy plays in a pitchers park.
    Last edited by M2; 12-06-2012 at 05:17 PM.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I have seperated the two, for good reason.

    There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

    Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

    If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.
    Yea that comp doesn't work for me either. Regardless of career averages, Ellsbury clearly has talent Pagan couldn't even begin to dream of. I don't think Jocketty even looks at this trade unless he believes a healthy Ellsbury is going to produce well beyond Angel Pagan.

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Yea that comp doesn't work for me either. Regardless of career averages, Ellsbury clearly has talent Pagan couldn't even begin to dream of. I don't think Jocketty even looks at this trade unless he believes a healthy Ellsbury is going to produce well beyond Angel Pagan.
    Pagan just got a 4-year, $40 million deal. He's not chopped liver. In fact, he's a whole lot better than Mr. Drew Stubbs. If the Reds had signed Pagan (regardless of what you think about the contract), the team would be significantly upgraded in CF for 2013.

    And I assume Jocketty is smart enough not to deal for a guy assuming that guy will replicate a career season completely out of step with the rest of his career. I'm sure Jocketty would be hoping Ellsbury could tap into whatever made that 2011 season happen (provided it's not PED-related), but no way is Walt going to pay for him like he's a sure-fire MVP candidate. Ellsbury is an oft-injured, semi-pricey, BA-driven, speed player. He's not a high OB guy and his power was confined to a single season. Taking 2011 out of the equation his ISO is .099, which is on the low side. Pagan has a career .143 ISO.

    If you're trading for Ellsbury, you shouldn't pay for him to be any better than his 2009 season - .301/.355/.415. Could he do more? Sure, but banking on it is extremely risky. Given his injury history, there's even a fair amount of risk attached to getting a 2009ish performance from him.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #83
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I have seperated the two, for good reason.

    There is no way Angel Pegan could ever, in his wildest dreams, even taking every PED available, have a year like Ellsbury's 2011.

    Career stats over just a few years can be very misleading. Unless you discount Ellsbury's 2011 due to PED's, you have to account for it. Outside of PED users, it's very rare for a player to raise his game as Ellsbury did, and not stay near that level when healthy.

    If healthy, I see Ellsbury having a .295/.350/.450 year and Pegan having a .275/330/410 line. For me the big risk with Ellsbury is health. But if healthy, he's a significantly better player than Pegan.
    Thank you for this. I was thinking I was living in the Twilight Zone.

  10. #84
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    The Bailey love is getting out of hand on this forum.
    I can't remember the stats Doug has posted multiple times now, but Bailey was around top 20 in every major pitching category. He's a borderline #1 pitcher.

    It's not out of hand enough.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  11. #85
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And I assume Jocketty is smart enough not to deal for a guy assuming that guy will replicate a career season completely out of step with the rest of his career. I'm sure Jocketty would be hoping Ellsbury could tap into whatever made that 2011 season happen (provided it's not PED-related), but no way is Walt going to pay for him like he's a sure-fire MVP candidate. Ellsbury is an oft-injured, semi-pricey, BA-driven, speed player. He's not a high OB guy and his power was confined to a single season. Taking 2011 out of the equation his ISO is .099, which is on the low side. Pagan has a career .143 ISO.

    If you're trading for Ellsbury, you shouldn't pay for him to be any better than his 2009 season - .301/.355/.415. Could he do more? Sure, but banking on it is extremely risky. Given his injury history, there's even a fair amount of risk attached to getting a 2009ish performance from him.
    No one's banking on him hitting thirty homers, but Boston's probably not going to listen to an offer unless it vaguely reflects the fact that Ellsbury was very recently one of the best players in baseball. It's like asking for EdE back as if was still a .260 20 homerun hitter.

  12. #86
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Boston is going to get............nothing for Ellsbury with those demands.

    I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair. Simply because they were getting a top 3 Reds prospect, not to mention starting pitcher, and a former #1 pick CFer that is in the doghouse in Stubbs. But both are under control for awhile and still cheap.

    And they expect the Reds to take on 1-year of Ellsbury and give them Latos or Bailey?????? That's insane.

    If another team gives that much up, then the market really is out of whack.

    Every couple or so years, the baseball market gets way out of whack and alot of dumb contracts are handed out.
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Boston is going to get............nothing for Ellsbury with those demands.

    I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair. Simply because they were getting a top 3 Reds prospect, not to mention starting pitcher, and a former #1 pick CFer that is in the doghouse in Stubbs. But both are under control for awhile and still cheap.

    And they expect the Reds to take on 1-year of Ellsbury and give them Latos or Bailey?????? That's insane.
    Where did the Bailey/Latos rumor come from? I haven't seen anything about it.

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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I thought Corcino/Stubbs for Ellsbury was fair.
    Well, I liked it anyhow.

    Thing is, I'm not sure what's fair. How do you solve a problem like Jacoby?
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  15. #89
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Thank you for this. I was thinking I was living in the Twilight Zone.
    So you think a one-year power spike means he's a guaranteed power hitter? I say fixating on his 2011 season and ignoring the rest of his career (43 runs above average with his bat in 2011, 22 runs below average for the rest of his career) would be a case of living in the Twilight Zone.

    I know the media has spoon-fed us the story that Ellsbury is a big deal, but we have access to his actual performance data. You can figure out where the mode, mean and median are with Ellsbury's career. It's not hard to spot that power has been notably absent from his game most seasons. And it's 2012. We understand park effects? Right? This is relatively old school stuff.

    I'm all for trading for Ellsbury if it's Corcino and Stubbs, but expecting the 2011 Ellsbury to show up is more hope than reason. You wouldn't expect the 2009 Mauer to show up if you traded for him. I get the maybe-lighting-will-strike-twice notion, especially since the GAB is HR friendly. That said, no way do you pay for maybe-lighting-will-strike-twice.

    You can pick through any number of Reds pitching disasters from the aughts and find standout seasons prior to their stint in Cincinnati. I remember being told time and again that those standout seasons were more indicative of those pitchers' true talent than their career marks. It never worked out that way. All I'm saying is "Don't get blinded by the shiny object."
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  16. #90
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    No one's banking on him hitting thirty homers, but Boston's probably not going to listen to an offer unless it vaguely reflects the fact that Ellsbury was very recently one of the best players in baseball. It's like asking for EdE back as if was still a .260 20 homerun hitter.
    He was one of the best players in baseball for one season. Before that he was a below average bat and he was back to below average in 2012. Anybody who's trading for Jacoby Ellsbury like he's one of the best players in baseball is a fool. I'm not saying a team couldn't get lucky, but you don't put serious skin in a trade in the hopes you might get lucky.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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