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Thread: Jacoby Ellsbury?

  1. #31
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But 2011 happened, and can't be discounted. Talent and skill wise, that's probably closer to where he is than when he was first coming up.
    I don't know about that.

    Sometimes guys just have a fluky once-in-a-lifetime season (also known as pulling a Brady Anderson).

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  3. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But 2011 happened, and can't be discounted. Talent and skill wise, that's probably closer to where he is than when he was first coming up.

    He's a much better hitter than Pegan. He has a genuine hit tool. Hits for a higher average, and with much more power.
    The power is all 2011. Ellsbury never hit double digit HRs or more than 30 doubles outside of that season. Pagan's a career .281 hitter. His last four seasons have been .306, .290, .262 and .288 (in pitchers parks). That's a hit tool. Even with Ellsbury's 2011 season, he and Pagan have a dead even career 106 OPS+.

    I'd be thrilled if the Reds traded for Ellsbury and something approximating his 2011 self showed up, but it would be foolish to trade for him like that's a sure thing. This guy is as impossible to predict as any player in baseball. He has thrilled and horrified the Sox over the years. It's probably safest to peg him at his averages. So if the Angel Paganish version of Ellsbury doesn't appeal to you, then don't trade for him.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  4. #33
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I don't know about that.

    Sometimes guys just have a fluky once-in-a-lifetime season (also known as pulling a Brady Anderson).
    If you watch him play, his 2011 numbers don't seem all that crazy. Like I said, he possesses a solid hit tool. He can hit for a high average, and that doesn't go away when healthy.

    Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #34
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If you watch him play, his 2011 numbers don't seem all that crazy. Like I said, he possesses a solid hit tool. He can hit for a high average, and that doesn't go away when healthy.

    Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.
    I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  6. #35
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.
    Like a genie?
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  7. #36
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.
    Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.

    I don't live in Boston, but have Bostonites in my family, so I have been forced to watch them since 1998, lol. I feel I know them better than any other team besides the Reds, though not by choice.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #37
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Like a genie?
    Maybe this is what he means?

    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #38
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.
    No doubt he hits for average, but so does Pagan.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  10. #39
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Fair enough. I'm not assuming his power will come back to 2011 levels. I just think he knows how to hit, and that will continue if healthy.
    Is he healthy though? His numbers last year were pretty terrible and we've seen firsthand with Kearns how much shoulder injuries can screw up a hitter. It may be worth the risk for Corcino, but I have no idea what to honestly expect from Ellsbury.

  11. #40
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I live in Boston. I've watched him play his whole career. The power he showed in 2011 never existed in his game prior to that season and completely disappeared last season. FWIW, there's a fair amount of speculation that Ellsbury's 2011 might have come from a bottle.
    In this case, "a fair amount" equals "all signs point to yes."

    He seems like a better fit for the Blue Jays. Maybe he can team up with Bautista, Encarnacion, and Cabrera to get bulk rate shipping from their supplier.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  12. #41
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Although I have little confidence in Ben Cherington's ability build a competitive team in Boston, I can't see him trading Ellsbury for anything less than an impact starting pitcher...and they won't get one for an injury prone Boras client who will definitely test the market. They definitely don't want nor need Stubbs.

    I predict Ellsbury plays in Boston in 2013...at least until the trade deadline.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  13. #42
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No doubt he hits for average, but so does Pagan.
    Ellsbury has 20 points on Pegan for BA. Pegan has never hit .300 over a full season. Ellsbury has done it twice.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #43
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    I had read that in 2011 he had become a fastball hitter for the first time as an account for the home run totals, but why at that point gain the ability overnight?

  15. #44
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Obviously no one knows if these rumors will come true but I can say I won't be mad if this lineup is put on the field a lot in 2013.

    1. Ellsbury
    2. Phillips
    3. Votto
    4. Ludwick
    5. Bruce
    6. Frazier
    7. Cozart
    8. Hanigan/Mez
    Matta = Really good

  16. #45
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    Re: Jacoby Ellsbury?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Plus most of those one year guys, like Brady Anderson, had some help, if you know what I mean.
    I was not subtlety implying the same thing about Ellsbury.


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