Projecting 2013 Minor League Lineups

[dougdirt]

Stephenson didn't have that much time in Dayton last year. I could see him starting there as well. Any chance he does half season at Dayton then goes to AA and skips Bakersfield if he dominates A?

I would start him in Dayton and go to Bakersfield once he puts in some more time with the Dragons (all assuming he doesn't go out in spring training and show improved control, then I would just start him in Bakersfield). I can't see a scenario where he skips Bakersfield unless he remains in Dayton all season then begins there in 2014.

[Scrap Irony]

One interesting thing when you take a look at the whole organization is that there is a MASSIVE dropoff after the top 5 prospects (Hamilton, Stephenson, Cingrani, Corcino, and Gregorius). It's almost like they are the only five that really matter in the entire system.

It is hard for me to decide who would be #6. Winker maybe? Travieso possibly? Lotzkar if he can ever stay healthy? I guess that's what we'll find out this season- who is the next generation of Reds Top Prospects (other than Stephenson) after 2013, when the other four will graduate to the bigs.

I'd argue that Winker is every bit the prospect Corcino, Cingrani, and Gregorius are. He walks as much as he Ks, played very well in an advanced league, and showed some pretty massive power improvement as the year went on.

.338/ .443/ .500/ .943 as an 18-year-old and the seventh-youngest player in the Pioneer League? Yes, please. His pedigree is outstanding as well, fwiw, as are his scouting reports:

Reds prospect Jesse Winker is a solid hitting prospect who's already showing an advanced ability to work an at-bat, with power enough to line-drive anything to any field on command. He has a little pull power, but that's probably something the Reds would rather he forgot about: he's a top-to-middle of order bat who should be an on-base threat. Defensively, he's competent in the outfield or a corner infield spot, but he won't win any gold gloves.

There are a bunch of other guys behind those six, however. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

[dougdirt]

Personally I have a Top 7 that are kind of grouped together (all guys I would consider Top 100 prospect worthy, even if they don't all make such a list). After that I think there is a rather big drop off to the next group of about 10 guys who are all bunched together.

[Benihana]

I like Winker a lot and he'd be my pick for the next guy on the list.

I just think that it may be premature to list someone who has yet to have an AB in a full season league that high, especially when he wasn't a consensus first round pick in his draft. If he hits in Dayton like he did in Billings, even for the first month or two, he'll be there IMO. It's just a little too early for me is all I'm saying.

[Scrap Irony]

If Winker hits in Dayton like he hit in Billings, he'll be a top 20 pick among all prospects in baseball. His perephials aren't just good-- they're outstanding. Add that to his youth and league.

[Benihana]

If Winker hits in Dayton like he hit in Billings, he'll be a top 20 pick among all prospects in baseball. His perephials aren't just good-- they're outstanding. Add that to his youth and league.

Agreed. He and Stephenson would become the Bruce and Bailey of the next decade of prospects.

[dougdirt]

I like Winker a lot and he'd be my pick for the next guy on the list.

I just think that it may be premature to list someone who has yet to have an AB in a full season league that high, especially when he wasn't a consensus first round pick in his draft. If he hits in Dayton like he did in Billings, even for the first month or two, he'll be there IMO. It's just a little too early for me is all I'm saying.

Corner outfielder who is a top five prospect in his league from BA that isn't just tools? I am sold.

[redsof72]

Things can change, but going into s.t., Stephenson and Guillon more likely to Dayton. Join Langfield, Cisco, Romano in rotation. Mejias-Brean to Dayton. One of the UCLA outfielders could go to Bakersfield with Pigott in Dayton. Duran to BAK too. Wright moved to third in instructs, projects better there if he can make the switch longterm. Buckley to LF in instructs but will go back to 1B for now due to overload in OF at BAK.

And that looks like a powerhouse in Dayton on paper.

[Benihana]

Things can change, but going into s.t., Stephenson and Guillon more likely to Dayton. Join Langfield, Cisco, Romano in rotation. Mejias-Brean to Dayton. One of the UCLA outfielders could go to Bakersfield with Pigott in Dayton. Duran to BAK too. Wright moved to third in instructs, projects better there if he can make the switch longterm. Buckley to LF in instructs but will go back to 1B for now due to overload in OF at BAK.

And that looks like a powerhouse in Dayton on paper.

So with that rotation and Mejias-Brean headed to Dayton as of now, do Rosa, Rahier, Travieso and Garrett all start in Billings? It seems like 3B is pretty stacked top-to-bottom in the org, with Frazier, H-Rod, Vidal, Wright, Mejias-Brean, Rahier and Rosa. Seems like something's gotta give especially in the lower minors. Maybe Rosa moves to the OF?

Also, it seems like BAK has a really crowded OF. Any chance Yorman or Waldrop jump to Pensacola? If not what else gives? Maybe Silva? Also wondering who will pitch for Bakersfield. Allen, Mugarian, Johnson maybe?

Finally, shouldn't Duran be moving to 1B at some point?

[redsof72]

Moscot in BAK, good prospect. Silva would be the fourth OF. Duran would never put in the hours to become an acceptable first baseman. He is a DH all the way as a projection. I don't see any of those guys skipping BAK.

All those guys in Billings. Rosa moves, yes. I am told he is pretty poor at 3B, comparisons to Arias. They like Rahier there.

If SMB does end up in BAK, Rosa becomes Dayton 3B. Drop off there is enormous. Bigger than enormous.

[lollipopcurve]

And that looks like a powerhouse in Dayton on paper.

Indeed it does. I hope they're able to put together another winning group down there.

72, hear any buzz about any of the kids who were with the AZL team last summer? Reynoso? Rachal? Peterson?

[Benihana]

Moscot in BAK, good prospect. Silva would be the fourth OF. Duran would never put in the hours to become an acceptable first baseman. He is a DH all the way as a projection. I don't see any of those guys skipping BAK.

All those guys in Billings. Rosa moves, yes. I am told he is pretty poor at 3B, comparisons to Arias. They like Rahier there.

If SMB does end up in BAK, Rosa becomes Dayton 3B. Drop off there is enormous. Bigger than enormous.

Interesting that Moscot starts there over Langfield and Guillon. Do you see Langfield as a starter?

Where do you think Rosa moves- RF? CF? 1B? Thx

[Scrap Irony]

Dayton's lineup:
Amaral CF
Vincej SS
Winker RF/LF
Mejias-Brean 3B
Sanchez 1B
Pigott LF/RF
Gonzalez/ O'Shea C
Dailey/ Wren 2B

Rotation:
Stephenson
Guillion
Langfield
Romano
Cisco

That's 10 prospects who'll rank somewhere in the Top 50 Reds.

[lollipopcurve]

Gonzalez/ O'Shea C

Gonzalez won't repeat Dayton. Maybe Hudson will be in Dayton -- supposedly his defense is quite good.

[redsof72]

Yes, Hudson in Dayton. As I say every year, don't bet the mortgage on any of this. There are always changes due to injuries and various domino effects. No one saw Bryson Smith jumping Dayton last year until the final few days of spring training. In this case, some of these players, such as Mejias-Brean, might be initially thought of for one club but with the door open to go to another. This is in contrast to a situation like Stephenson last year when I was saying there was no way Stephenson was starting in Dayton because I knew that was not even being considered.

Robert Ramirez is a guy they like a little and he might be in that 2B mix too. Dailey was looked at as a catcher in instructs...they are trying to find a spot for him because he has some potential as a hitter but has not shown enough in the field. I think he is in the second base mix.

Moscot-Langfield...both a solid prospects. Moscot, a west coast guy, might just be a bit more polished at this point.

Have heard a little about Reynoso. Not sure about the other AZL guys. One thing to keep in mind on some of those guys: There just are not a lot of people who have seen them play when all they have done is go through a half season in the AZL. I have not bumped into a lot of people who have seen those guys play yet.

I am looking forward to seeing this Vincej play a little. I hear he can really pick it and he hit last year. Remember, he was the national shortstop of the year (Brooks Wallace Award) at Pepperdine.

Another player that could work into the Dayton picture is Adam Matthews out of South Carolina.

Reds are short on catching with some clubs right now. I posted on another thread I thought they might try to find a catcher in the minor league Rule V.