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Thread: Who would you rather have?

  1. #31
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    In his best hitting year on the road he had a .415 SLG, DRS was -10 this year and -21 in his career he could be playing in a park with no walls and he's still not getting balls he should. He's a sub par defender and is a question mark to what his offense is on the road that's something I don't like paying prospects for.
    Look at Willy Taveras' defensive stats before, during and after Colorado. He is considered a GREAT defensive CFer. He was dramatically worse in Colorado than Houston or Cincy.

    Defensive metrics are measured by dividing the field into zones and seeing how many balls hit in the zone are caught. Bottom line, huge park, less balls any CF can get to. Again, if you are going to knock his hitting for playing in a huge park, you can't knock his fielding for playing in that same park.

    By no means do I think he's a great CFer, but he's more than adequate

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  3. #32
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Look at Willy Taveras' defensive stats before, during and after Colorado. He is considered a GREAT defensive CFer. He was dramatically worse in Colorado than Houston or Cincy.

    Defensive metrics are measured by dividing the field into zones and seeing how many balls hit in the zone are caught. Bottom line, huge park, less balls any CF can get to. Again, if you are going to knock his hitting for playing in a huge park, you can't knock his fielding for playing in that same park.

    By no means do I think he's a great CFer, but he's more than adequate
    This

  4. #33
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Look at Willy Taveras' defensive stats before, during and after Colorado. He is considered a GREAT defensive CFer. He was dramatically worse in Colorado than Houston or Cincy.

    Defensive metrics are measured by dividing the field into zones and seeing how many balls hit in the zone are caught. Bottom line, huge park, less balls any CF can get to. Again, if you are going to knock his hitting for playing in a huge park, you can't knock his fielding for playing in that same park.

    By no means do I think he's a great CFer, but he's more than adequate
    The way I understand UZR ratings, this is not entirely true. They do look at the percentage of balls hit into a zone by a player. But that number is then compared with the percentage of balls that all outfielders catch in that particular zone.

    A quick example with entirely made up numbers for illustration purposes. Say in GAPB Drew Stubbs catches 85% of the balls in his zone. However, of all the balls hit into that zone, 90% are caught. That makes Stubbs a below average fielder. Next, say Fowler only catches 80% of the balls in his bigger- zone in Colorado. But, at the same time, of all the ball hit into that zone only 75% are caught. That would make Fowler an above-average fielder. By doing it this way the size of each zone is irrelevant. At least that is how I understand the workings of UZR. I could be wrong.
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  5. #34
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    His splits closed because he wasn't putting up massive numbers at home making the gap so wide. The last two years with the Rockies he hit .308 and .301 and the last two years with the Cards he's hit .285 and .301 on the road and his OPS has dipped every year as a Cardinal despite the added OBP.

    If Fowler got traded his home split is going to fall but his road isn't going to magically spike just like Matt's didn't. I can't recall any player who has ever put up big numbers in Denver go somewhere else and improve across the board, even Matt saw his line drop leaving town.
    His numbers did not drop once he left Colorado. His career wRC+ is 139, the last 3 years it has been 149, 154, 141. His career wOBA is .396. The last three years it has been .397, .395, .378. His overall line is just as good since he left town.

    And has far as his splits are concerned, they are not closer because of his home stats dropping significantly. His road numbers have improved just as much as his home stats dropped.
    His last full year in Colorado (2008) his home/road wRC+ was 152/128. His first full year in St. Louis, 154/145. In 2011, he was actually better on the road, at 150/158.

    And as for his slugging dropping last year, I think losing a hitter of Pujols' ilk in the lineup, turning 32, and the general ups and downs of baseball are reasons enough for that decline.

    So basically, I feel that my point still stands. Good hitters will change their approach upon leaving Colorado, allowing them to produce just as well as they did while with the Rockies.

    Further evidence can be found when you look through the past 12 years of park effect data (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor). Coors is not the consistent number 1 team in terms of runs, hits, hr, 2b, or 3b. 2012 is the only year where it runs away with most of the categories. The Coors Effect is a very overblown concept imho.

  6. #35
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    The way I understand UZR ratings, this is not entirely true. They do look at the percentage of balls hit into a zone by a player. But that number is then compared with the percentage of balls that all outfielders catch in that particular zone.

    A quick example with entirely made up numbers for illustration purposes. Say in GAPB Drew Stubbs catches 85% of the balls in his zone. However, of all the balls hit into that zone, 90% are caught. That makes Stubbs a below average fielder. Next, say Fowler only catches 80% of the balls in his bigger- zone in Colorado. But, at the same time, of all the ball hit into that zone only 75% are caught. That would make Fowler an above-average fielder. By doing it this way the size of each zone is irrelevant. At least that is how I understand the workings of UZR. I could be wrong.
    You are correct. There is some element of a park factor built into UZR, but even then, the anecdotal evidence shows defensive metrics are historically harsh to Colorado OFers. Even good ones.

  7. #36
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Fowler. And to me it's not close.

  8. #37
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    What happens to either of them when Hamilton arrives?

  9. #38
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    I bet it is neither and Ellsbury is acquired from Boston for Corcino, but If I was choosing between Fowler and de Aza, I would go with da Aza...

    Fowler would turn into Taveras out of Colorado.

  10. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    What happens to either of them when Hamilton arrives?
    The whole point of having them under control for multiple years is what happens when Hamilton arrives and does nothing.

  11. #40
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Look at Willy Taveras' defensive stats before, during and after Colorado. He is considered a GREAT defensive CFer. He was dramatically worse in Colorado than Houston or Cincy.

    Defensive metrics are measured by dividing the field into zones and seeing how many balls hit in the zone are caught. Bottom line, huge park, less balls any CF can get to. Again, if you are going to knock his hitting for playing in a huge park, you can't knock his fielding for playing in that same park.

    By no means do I think he's a great CFer, but he's more than adequate
    If you think big parks hurt your defensive rating then how does Austin Jackson stack up with a +47 DRS in 3 years playing in Detroit where its 420 in CF.

    The fielding bible uses video on every play and have Dexter a -21 DRS, playing in a park that was 500 feet in the alleys isn't going to make you have a bigger zone and get expected to cover more ground than humanly possible.

    I'm to the point where I hope we pull the move off just so we can see what happens, but Fowler will be hated by years end if he comes here and get exposed away from the Denver.

  12. #41
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by drowg14 View Post
    His numbers did not drop once he left Colorado. His career wRC+ is 139, the last 3 years it has been 149, 154, 141. His career wOBA is .396. The last three years it has been .397, .395, .378. His overall line is just as good since he left town.

    And has far as his splits are concerned, they are not closer because of his home stats dropping significantly. His road numbers have improved just as much as his home stats dropped.
    His last full year in Colorado (2008) his home/road wRC+ was 152/128. His first full year in St. Louis, 154/145. In 2011, he was actually better on the road, at 150/158.

    And as for his slugging dropping last year, I think losing a hitter of Pujols' ilk in the lineup, turning 32, and the general ups and downs of baseball are reasons enough for that decline.

    So basically, I feel that my point still stands. Good hitters will change their approach upon leaving Colorado, allowing them to produce just as well as they did while with the Rockies.

    Further evidence can be found when you look through the past 12 years of park effect data (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor). Coors is not the consistent number 1 team in terms of runs, hits, hr, 2b, or 3b. 2012 is the only year where it runs away with most of the categories. The Coors Effect is a very overblown concept imho.

    Matt wasn't Matt for his first year and a half in the Majors over his first 165 games his line was .286/.342/.464/.806 then he became a beast going off for a line of .328/.397/.575/.972 vs a line of .308/.389/.528/.918 with the Cards inflated by his awesome half season after the trade from Oakland, with out that it falls to .302/.385/517/.903 in his 3 full years in St Louis which is nowhere close to what he was in Denver.

    Those advance metrics fail in this augment because they say his 2011 season that he hit .296 was better than the year he lead the league in BA at .340 with the leagues lead in Hits, TB, 2B and RBI and came in 4th in HR and 3rd in runs scored.

  13. #42
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    If you think big parks hurt your defensive rating then how does Austin Jackson stack up with a +47 DRS in 3 years playing in Detroit where its 420 in CF.

    The fielding bible uses video on every play and have Dexter a -21 DRS, playing in a park that was 500 feet in the alleys isn't going to make you have a bigger zone and get expected to cover more ground than humanly possible.

    I'm to the point where I hope we pull the move off just so we can see what happens, but Fowler will be hated by years end if he comes here and get exposed away from the Denver.
    Did you read the part about Willy Taveras and how his defensive metrics dropped dramatically in Colorado even though he's widely acknowledged as a great defender? Again, whatever it is in Colorado that makes it SO friendly to singles, doubles and triples hitters that it takes Fowler from crap to .300 hitter, then other teams will get that same singles, doubles and triples. Defensive metrics are measured by a ratio of balls in your zone to balls caught in your zone. That means when a visiting team is in Colorado, their OFers can't get to Fowler's balls that they would get to in every other stadium because Colorado is artificially inflating his stats. Fowler plays 81 games a year in that same stadium that no other CFer can get to Fowler's hits.

    I'm not saying he's a silver slugger caliber hitter nor a gold glove caliber fielder. I'm just saying I don't think he's going to be booed out of Cincinnati either. And by being somewhere in the middle, he will be a dramatic improvement over Stubbs

  14. #43
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Fowler or De Asa? I wouldn't want Fowler at all. There are better options out there. Fowler strike out too much. How about these options:

    Craig Gentry(TEX), Eric Young, Jr (COL), Michael Brantley (CLE) or Alejedro DeAsa (CWS)

    All strike out about half as much as Stubbs - Brantley about 1/3
    All have decent batting average splits
    All are arbitration eligible this year or next
    All could bat lead-off

    If you are into Defensive Wins Against Replacement,
    Gentry 1.9
    Young 0.5
    DeAsa 0.3
    Brantley 0.2

    Stubbs is 0.5

    One of these should be attainable!

  15. #44
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Did you read the part about Willy Taveras and how his defensive metrics dropped dramatically in Colorado even though he's widely acknowledged as a great defender? Again, whatever it is in Colorado that makes it SO friendly to singles, doubles and triples hitters that it takes Fowler from crap to .300 hitter, then other teams will get that same singles, doubles and triples. Defensive metrics are measured by a ratio of balls in your zone to balls caught in your zone. That means when a visiting team is in Colorado, their OFers can't get to Fowler's balls that they would get to in every other stadium because Colorado is artificially inflating his stats. Fowler plays 81 games a year in that same stadium that no other CFer can get to Fowler's hits.

    I'm not saying he's a silver slugger caliber hitter nor a gold glove caliber fielder. I'm just saying I don't think he's going to be booed out of Cincinnati either. And by being somewhere in the middle, he will be a dramatic improvement over Stubbs
    Willy Taveras made tons of errors in his time with the Rockies and that's why his defense stats when down there. He had 11 in 1,700 innings there and 12 in the other 3,300 else where. Just because the park gets bigger doesn't mean your expected zone grows and DRS from the Fielding Bible is video reviewed system and he's a -21 there.

  16. #45
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    Re: Who would you rather have?

    I like Fowler a lot and think he's a good fit for this team. Every time I've seen him play, he has looked very smooth defensively to me. I know the numbers say otherwise, but I think he's probably an average defensive CF. His on base skills are solid, and I think he has just enough power that his bat could be passable in LF once Hamilton is ready, especially if the Reds can get slightly above average power production out of Frazier at 3B. I'm just really excited about the prospects of having both Hamilton and Fowler switch hitting and filling up the bags in front of Votto.


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