I think KC overpaid, but as M2 pointed out, the majority of recent KC prospects seem to go bust so it could end up being a moot point. Shields will help their rotation a lot.
I think KC overpaid, but as M2 pointed out, the majority of recent KC prospects seem to go bust so it could end up being a moot point. Shields will help their rotation a lot.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Yep. That's my thinking too.
I'd rather my club try to do something to compete (especially after many years of not trying).
Maybe Myers becomes the next GStanton. Maybe he becomes the next Delmon Young (or worse). Who knows?
I'm not saying all of KC's recent moves are good, but it's hard for me to call this move stupid.
Worse case, it doesn't work out.. then the Royals are no worse off than they've been in previous years..
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I'm always confused by the criticism that a guy has logged a lot of innings. I get the concern if he logged a lot of innings at a young age, but in your late 20s and early 30s is exactly when you want a pitcher racking up the innings totals. Pitchers who can do that year after year are incredibly valuable, and Shields has proven himself to be one of those guys.
The Royals don't want a pitcher who can maybe lead a staff, they want a pitcher who has proven he can lead a staff. And when did 31 become old for a SP? On top of that, Davis was a mangler in the bullpen. Wouldn't shock me if he's closing in KC next year (or acting as the primary setup man in front of Greg Holland).
And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Agreed, with SP, durability is extremely underrated. Yes, Brett Anderson is a "better" pitcher, but innings not pitched are essentially innings getting pitched by a replacement level guy, because they cascade down the staff. Here are the top 15 SP in innings pitched since 2009:
Yes, Shields isn't on the level of King Felix, Sabathia, Verlander, Lee and Halladay. But Cain, Weaver and Hamels isn't bad company.Code:Rank Name IP ERA FIP xFIP WAR 1 Felix Hernandez 954.0 2.81 3.03 3.22 24.2 2 Justin Verlande 953.2 2.95 2.93 3.28 28.6 3 CC Sabathia 905.0 3.22 3.28 3.41 23.4 4 James Shields 900.0 3.85 3.76 3.46 14.8 5 Cliff Lee 887.2 2.98 2.86 3.11 25.3 6 Matt Cain 882.0 2.93 3.46 3.94 15.6 7 Roy Halladay 879.2 2.87 2.93 2.97 24.5 8 Dan Haren 879.1 3.59 3.50 3.42 18.3 9 Jered Weaver 859.2 2.98 3.49 3.91 17.8 10 Tim Lincecum 840.2 3.38 3.16 3.25 18.2 11 Bronson Arroyo 837.0 4.12 4.79 4.41 4.5 12 Clayton Kershaw 836.1 2.6 2.87 3.36 20.8 13 Cole Hamels 833.2 3.28 3.43 3.28 16.6 14 Zack Greinke 833.1 3.37 2.93 3.15 23.5 15 Mark Buehrle 831.1 3.86 4.13 4.30 12.9
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-10-2012 at 01:17 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
KC batting order
Cain CF
Gordon LF
Butler DH
Moustakas 3B
Perez C
Hosmer 1B
Francouer RF
Escobar SS
Getz/ Gavotela 2B
Rotation
Shields
Santana
Guthrie
Chen
Mendoza
Bullpen
Holland
Davis
Crow
Hochevar
Herrera
Collins
Bueno
The big question is if the young corner guys (Hosmer and Moustakas) can rebound (or is it bound?) into the solid hitters they were profiled as in the minors. If so, the Royals have five innings eaters who'll give you a league average or better rotation. That has some serious value, especially in front of a re-tooled (and excellent) bullpen.
The starting staff is good.
How about the hitters?
It seems like the deal went through pretty quickly. If TB was really as desperate to dump cash as they claim to be, Moore should have played the waiting game and held out for David Price.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
One other thing to consider is that Shields has been the Rays poster boy for how to be a major league pitcher. Supposedly his preparation and work ethic are as good as anyone in baseball. It's not a coincidence that the Rays have had such success breaking in young pitchers into the majors during Shields' years in that rotation.
KC needs that. Shields is going to be their role model, kind of Scott Rolen was for the Reds' position players a few years back (and how Joey Votto will be moving forward). Suddenly KC doesn't need to tell convince young pitchers about what they need to do in theory to be a quality major leaguer, it can just point to Shields and say, "See? That's how you do it."
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
This seems to be what a lot of folks are thinking....
Being a GM is rough. You are given the job to build a winner. To build that winner in certain places, you need to build through drafting and developing. That takes years and years. Your boss wants you to win now, while also building for the future. Sometimes, that isn't exactly possible. It will be interesting to see what the next moves are for the Royals.
I see Odorizzi as a potential slight upgrade to what Mike Leake is/can be. Stuff is pretty much average across the board. Has some control. Nothing special.
Montgomery is a wild card. Big time arm. Or boring arm. It truly depends on what day you see him. He has mechanical problems that has his velocity anywhere from 88-91 one day to 93-97 another day. Control is an issue too, but that is also related to his mechanics. If you can fix those mechanics, you have a real asset with him.
But yeah, I am not sure either is a true loss.
The reason I don't like the deal is the amount of money they took on and had to give up arguably the best hitting prospect in the game (I am not even sure it is arguable, some guys are better position player prospects because of their position/defense, but pure hitting wise I don't know that anyone else is on par with him).
Three year rolling average of four veteran KC starters the past three years:
Chen-- 97 (101, 108, 81)
Guthrie--100 (108, 97, 94)
Santana-- 95 (102, 111, 73)
Shields-- 106 (75, 134, 108)
Add Medoza (a 97 ERA+ last season in his first as a starter) plus depth like Danny Duffy and prospects that are likely to improve, and you've got a staff that should do fairly well.
I'm not ignoring that. I recognize it and I should have taken more time to make that point. You are very correct in that assessment. I don't think they sold tomorrow for today, however, I don't think in this deal it was necessary to deal Myers. Easy for me to say since I wasn't there! LOL
KC has a very nice stable of players. I just would have liked them to see it through. I'm personally convinced that Dayton Moore is under great pressure to win NOW or else.
Great job by Friedman leveraging Texas to get this done. He knows he needs to shed payroll and flipped the script to get a haul.
Cedric 3/24/08It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
Tavares is at that level in terms of hitting, but you're right that it's not a long list. Still, it took Alex Gordon a long time to go from where Myers is to where Gordon's at today (and he's still not a superstar-level player).
As for the money, KC has been hoarding cash for so long that I don't think the spending matters. Glass has luxury tax and league revenues filling his coffers and he's still got a fairly low payroll. In fact thanks to the trade the Royals finally have something that can be considered a major league payroll. Whether it nets them something that can be considered a major league team is an open question. Still, I think Shields and Davis push them in the right direction.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
KC might still get into the free agent bin as well.
They're not done yet, but what they have now is better than what they had, IMO.
Whether that's enough to make the playoffs is the question.
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