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Thread: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

  1. #46
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    I think KC overpaid, but as M2 pointed out, the majority of recent KC prospects seem to go bust so it could end up being a moot point. Shields will help their rotation a lot.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  3. #47
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    This got me thinking, who knows- maybe this will be the Rolen trade for KC?

    A struggling franchise that most don't think is poised to contend finally does an about-face and deals a couple prospects for a proven veteran with only a year or two left on their contract...

    Granted, Zach Stewart was no Wil Myers, but James Shields >> Scott Rolen.
    Yep. That's my thinking too.
    I'd rather my club try to do something to compete (especially after many years of not trying).
    Maybe Myers becomes the next GStanton. Maybe he becomes the next Delmon Young (or worse). Who knows?
    I'm not saying all of KC's recent moves are good, but it's hard for me to call this move stupid.
    Worse case, it doesn't work out.. then the Royals are no worse off than they've been in previous years..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  4. #48
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    I'm always confused by the criticism that a guy has logged a lot of innings. I get the concern if he logged a lot of innings at a young age, but in your late 20s and early 30s is exactly when you want a pitcher racking up the innings totals. Pitchers who can do that year after year are incredibly valuable, and Shields has proven himself to be one of those guys.

    The Royals don't want a pitcher who can maybe lead a staff, they want a pitcher who has proven he can lead a staff. And when did 31 become old for a SP? On top of that, Davis was a mangler in the bullpen. Wouldn't shock me if he's closing in KC next year (or acting as the primary setup man in front of Greg Holland).

    And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.
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  5. #49
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm always confused by the criticism that a guy has logged a lot of innings. I get the concern if he logged a lot of innings at a young age, but in your late 20s and early 30s is exactly when you want a pitcher racking up the innings totals. Pitchers who can do that year after year are incredibly valuable, and Shields has proven himself to be one of those guys.

    The Royals don't want a pitcher who can maybe lead a staff, they want a pitcher who has proven he can lead a staff. And when did 31 become old for a SP? On top of that, Davis was a mangler in the bullpen. Wouldn't shock me if he's closing in KC next year (or acting as the primary setup man in front of Greg Holland).

    And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.
    Agreed, with SP, durability is extremely underrated. Yes, Brett Anderson is a "better" pitcher, but innings not pitched are essentially innings getting pitched by a replacement level guy, because they cascade down the staff. Here are the top 15 SP in innings pitched since 2009:

    Code:
    Rank	Name		IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
    1	Felix Hernandez	954.0	2.81	3.03	3.22	24.2
    2	Justin Verlande 953.2	2.95	2.93	3.28	28.6
    3	CC Sabathia	905.0	3.22	3.28	3.41	23.4
    4	James Shields	900.0	3.85	3.76	3.46	14.8
    5	Cliff Lee	887.2	2.98	2.86	3.11	25.3
    6	Matt Cain	882.0	2.93	3.46	3.94	15.6
    7	Roy Halladay	879.2	2.87	2.93	2.97	24.5
    8	Dan Haren	879.1	3.59	3.50	3.42	18.3
    9	Jered Weaver	859.2	2.98	3.49	3.91	17.8
    10	Tim Lincecum	840.2	3.38	3.16	3.25	18.2
    11	Bronson Arroyo	837.0	4.12	4.79	4.41	 4.5
    12	Clayton Kershaw	836.1	2.6	2.87	3.36	20.8
    13	Cole Hamels	833.2	3.28	3.43	3.28	16.6
    14	Zack Greinke	833.1	3.37	2.93	3.15	23.5
    15	Mark Buehrle	831.1	3.86	4.13	4.30	12.9
    Yes, Shields isn't on the level of King Felix, Sabathia, Verlander, Lee and Halladay. But Cain, Weaver and Hamels isn't bad company.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-10-2012 at 02:17 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #50
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    KC batting order

    Cain CF
    Gordon LF
    Butler DH
    Moustakas 3B
    Perez C
    Hosmer 1B
    Francouer RF
    Escobar SS
    Getz/ Gavotela 2B

    Rotation
    Shields
    Santana
    Guthrie
    Chen
    Mendoza

    Bullpen
    Holland
    Davis
    Crow
    Hochevar
    Herrera
    Collins
    Bueno

    The big question is if the young corner guys (Hosmer and Moustakas) can rebound (or is it bound?) into the solid hitters they were profiled as in the minors. If so, the Royals have five innings eaters who'll give you a league average or better rotation. That has some serious value, especially in front of a re-tooled (and excellent) bullpen.

    The starting staff is good.

    How about the hitters?
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  7. #51
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    It seems like the deal went through pretty quickly. If TB was really as desperate to dump cash as they claim to be, Moore should have played the waiting game and held out for David Price.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  8. #52
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Rotation

    Shields
    Santana
    Guthrie
    Chen
    Mendoza
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The starting staff is good.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  9. #53
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    One other thing to consider is that Shields has been the Rays poster boy for how to be a major league pitcher. Supposedly his preparation and work ethic are as good as anyone in baseball. It's not a coincidence that the Rays have had such success breaking in young pitchers into the majors during Shields' years in that rotation.

    KC needs that. Shields is going to be their role model, kind of Scott Rolen was for the Reds' position players a few years back (and how Joey Votto will be moving forward). Suddenly KC doesn't need to tell convince young pitchers about what they need to do in theory to be a quality major leaguer, it can just point to Shields and say, "See? That's how you do it."
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post

    Third, the only reason I can think of why the change in course is this... Dayton Moore had to have been put on notice. "You win this year or you're gone" Why would you spend all this time crafting your player development plan and then just throw it away??
    This seems to be what a lot of folks are thinking....

    Being a GM is rough. You are given the job to build a winner. To build that winner in certain places, you need to build through drafting and developing. That takes years and years. Your boss wants you to win now, while also building for the future. Sometimes, that isn't exactly possible. It will be interesting to see what the next moves are for the Royals.

  11. #55
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    And the plaudits being thrown at Odorizzi and Montgomery aren't warranted. BA just projected Odorizzi as KC's #5 starter in 2016. That's not exactly a big loss. John Sickels says he's got a #3 pitcher ceiling, but didn't include the kid in his midseason top 120 prospects list. No one's particularly convinced he's got a successful major league future in front of him. And Montgomery was on the verge of washing out with the Royals. I'd shed no tears over losing them if I were a Royals fan.
    I see Odorizzi as a potential slight upgrade to what Mike Leake is/can be. Stuff is pretty much average across the board. Has some control. Nothing special.

    Montgomery is a wild card. Big time arm. Or boring arm. It truly depends on what day you see him. He has mechanical problems that has his velocity anywhere from 88-91 one day to 93-97 another day. Control is an issue too, but that is also related to his mechanics. If you can fix those mechanics, you have a real asset with him.

    But yeah, I am not sure either is a true loss.

    The reason I don't like the deal is the amount of money they took on and had to give up arguably the best hitting prospect in the game (I am not even sure it is arguable, some guys are better position player prospects because of their position/defense, but pure hitting wise I don't know that anyone else is on par with him).

  12. #56
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Three year rolling average of four veteran KC starters the past three years:
    Chen-- 97 (101, 108, 81)
    Guthrie--100 (108, 97, 94)
    Santana-- 95 (102, 111, 73)
    Shields-- 106 (75, 134, 108)

    Add Medoza (a 97 ERA+ last season in his first as a starter) plus depth like Danny Duffy and prospects that are likely to improve, and you've got a staff that should do fairly well.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  13. #57
    Passion for the game Team Clark's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    TC you're ignoring the fact they didn't touch their best pitching prospects which were NOT Odo and Montgomery or that they still have a top ten farm just similar to the Reds the best guys are now AA and lower. Lots to like on their farm and they have primo draft position this year again. They hardly sold their tomorrow for today. Is it a reach? Heck yes...but fans are furious here...I think Moore had mmarching orders from Glass who is tired of being crucified. Go for it or come close. Or else. Moore gets unfairly targeted for this mess given the total lack of resources ownership has offered him til all of the sudden NOW. Add Hochevar Holland Crow Paulino a couple I am forgetting and this should be a decent staff. The gamble is will these young hitters with immense potential but very spotty so far gel and take off?
    I'm not ignoring that. I recognize it and I should have taken more time to make that point. You are very correct in that assessment. I don't think they sold tomorrow for today, however, I don't think in this deal it was necessary to deal Myers. Easy for me to say since I wasn't there! LOL

    KC has a very nice stable of players. I just would have liked them to see it through. I'm personally convinced that Dayton Moore is under great pressure to win NOW or else.

    Great job by Friedman leveraging Texas to get this done. He knows he needs to shed payroll and flipped the script to get a haul.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
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  14. #58
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The reason I don't like the deal is the amount of money they took on and had to give up arguably the best hitting prospect in the game (I am not even sure it is arguable, some guys are better position player prospects because of their position/defense, but pure hitting wise I don't know that anyone else is on par with him).
    Tavares is at that level in terms of hitting, but you're right that it's not a long list. Still, it took Alex Gordon a long time to go from where Myers is to where Gordon's at today (and he's still not a superstar-level player).

    As for the money, KC has been hoarding cash for so long that I don't think the spending matters. Glass has luxury tax and league revenues filling his coffers and he's still got a fairly low payroll. In fact thanks to the trade the Royals finally have something that can be considered a major league payroll. Whether it nets them something that can be considered a major league team is an open question. Still, I think Shields and Davis push them in the right direction.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #59
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    KC might still get into the free agent bin as well.

    They're not done yet, but what they have now is better than what they had, IMO.

    Whether that's enough to make the playoffs is the question.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  16. #60
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: James Shields and Wade Davis traded to Kansas City

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    It seems like the deal went through pretty quickly. If TB was really as desperate to dump cash as they claim to be, Moore should have played the waiting game and held out for David Price.
    According to Andrew Friedman (Rays GM) they had been discussing it off and on since October.
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