Cozart did have a terrible OBP. But how does that relate to his WAR? Without a real dog in the fight, I could see that being an interesting discussion.
Cozart did have a terrible OBP. But how does that relate to his WAR? Without a real dog in the fight, I could see that being an interesting discussion.
If it was all about OBP, I might be concerned about him. That's only one part of the equation though. He also brings some pop and plus defense to the table. Surely he's a starter, damned his obp. He was miscast as a #2 hitter last year, which he won't have to do this year; he'll be batting lower in the order where he belongs.
‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’ Matthew 25:40
One other thing to take into consideration is that the Reds led all of MLB last season in the difference between their RC per game (above average at 4.6) and their actual runs per game (below average at 4.13). While there's some randomness built into that, a decent chunk of that inefficiency falls on the void in the leadoff spot. The Reds' lineup didn't work, at least not like it should have. Choo's addition might go a long way toward rectifying that. The potential gain in efficiency would actually be larger than Choo's boost in the RC department. An extra 100 runs from the cumulative effect wouldn't be all that surprising.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I can't believe the amount of people who don't find concern in a 27 year old with a career .290 OBP being a starter. Yes, he has things he brings to the table that are certainly good.
I could counter with that Choo or Bruce in center is going to cost our starters pitches and innings (and runs),meaning they throw fewer, leaving more for the bullpen and thus making them less valuable and then adding in a few extra guys who aren't nearly as good to fill in needed innings for those guys.
It kind of goes both ways. Choo is an upgrade to the team, no doubt. I just don't know how much and I don't think something like WAR is really going to tell us because so many other things are being effected by the move that won't show up in an individual players WAR.
Last edited by traderumor; 12-12-2012 at 06:54 PM.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I agree that it is the biggest issue with the team as far as starting players go and major pitching parts. Still, it could develop into a very big issue and there, at least as things stand no, literally no other option behind him. When your worst player literally has no back up in the minors for years to come, it shouldn't just be acceptable because the rest of your team is good.
That's not going to address the hole between Cozart and the lowest levels on the farm. Anybody we draft will most likely start in A ball or below. We need legitimate shortstops for the Reds, AAA and AA at least IMO.
Doug's right. If Cozart got injured in spring training for example....what then?
I'm not saying I don't do the trade. I love the trade. I do it 100 times out of 100. But let's not pretend there's not significant risk here for the short-term. I just think the potential gain outweighs the risk.
Honestly, I'm not all that terribly concerned with who is playing SS for the Louisville Bats or Pensacola Blue Wahoos, be it a no-stick guy in our system or minor league filler. You are right, the Reds should have a contingency plan for SS should something happen to Cozart. But as far as the rest of the organization goes, you just have to draft and develop more stars. You're not going to have a top-notch prospect at every position in your minor league system.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
For the record:
Cozart AAA 2011
.310/.357/.467/.825
Gregorius AAA 2012
.243/.288/.427/.715
The argument last night against trading Gregorius was that despite his weak bat, his glove made him valuable. Well, Cozart put up nearly 3 WAR last year in his first full season in the big leagues. It seems either this is an inconsistent argument or perhaps Cozart deserves a second season before hanging him in effigy for his ".290 OBP"
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
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