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Thread: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

  1. #841
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    WAR says Cozart was an above-average shortstop last year. Not sure I fully buy into that. Was he average? Yeah, I could buy into that. Not sure I buy into anything more than that.
    Just out of curiosity..why? Not trying to pick. I've done my fair share of WAR questioning.

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  3. #842
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'm honestly curious... what's really being debated here? Should the Reds not have acquired Choo just because now they don't have a 23-year old, unproven backup to Cozart?
    It seems that everyone thinks the deal should have been made. What is being debated I guess is that some believe there is no way this deal can't possibly work out for the Reds, where as some of us believe that there is plenty of risk for the trade to not work out. While it isn't a 50-50 scenario, it could be 60-40 or 70-30.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I'd rather have the other guy, but that isn't the point. The point is that Cozart probably isn't going to get better and may get worse, and if he does get worse, there is literally no one to replace him. Or if he gets hurt.

    WAR says Cozart was an above-average shortstop last year. Not sure I fully buy into that. Was he average? Yeah, I could buy into that. Not sure I buy into anything more than that.

    I am basically hinging on this, if Cozart takes even a slight step backwards in his game, I don't see him as "starting material", but the Reds don't have a single option behind him to replace him. I am not saying he will. I am saying he could. And if he does, the Reds have no options but to play him. It is like Stubbs all over again. You must play a crappy option because you don't have another one. Except that with how it looks right now, if that step backward does come this year, you may be stuck with that for years. It is a concern for me.
    So you're saying the Reds shouldn't have made this deal?

    I still think you're being inconsistent. Two years ago, you were singing Cozart's praises. Now you're convinced he can't get better and will probably get worse.

    If they'd kept Gregorius and in two years traded the next up and coming shortstop, I surmise you'd be arguing against that too
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It seems that everyone thinks the deal should have been made. What is being debated I guess is that some believe there is no way this deal can't possibly work out for the Reds, where as some of us believe that there is plenty of risk for the trade to not work out. While it isn't a 50-50 scenario, it could be 60-40 or 70-30.
    Exactly. It's not the slam dunk that many here think it is. I LOVE the trade, and I'm glad they made it. But I want some follow-up deals to address the holes it created. People were acting like we were dealing from a position of strength/depth. That wasn't the case. Sure, we had 2 MLB ready shortstops...one was borderline ready. But ZERO behind it. That's not depth.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 12-12-2012 at 07:48 PM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It seems that everyone thinks the deal should have been made. What is being debated I guess is that some believe there is no way this deal can't possibly work out for the Reds, where as some of us believe that there is plenty of risk for the trade to not work out. While it isn't a 50-50 scenario, it could be 60-40 or 70-30.
    Heck, I'd argue it's closer to 50/50. That's just the reality of the odds. Arizona has 6 years to recoup something out of Didi. We have a year to do so with Choo. Not to mention Stubbs.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Just out of curiosity..why? Not trying to pick. I've done my fair share of WAR questioning.
    Just not sure a .288 OBP, 1 win defender somehow works out to being a 3 win player. Doesn't quite add up in my head. Yeah, he had more power than other shortstops, but OBP>>>SLG and his OBP was really poor. Again, I could totally be wrong here, but that is just how I feel about it.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    So you're saying the Reds shouldn't have made this deal?

    I still think you're being inconsistent. Two years ago, you were singing Cozart's praises. Now you're convinced he can't get better and will probably get worse.

    If they'd kept Gregorius and in two years traded the next up and coming shortstop, I surmise you'd be arguing against that too
    Two years ago he upped his walk rate big time. Since then it has been cut in half. And two years ago was two years ago. Things change in two years. Going back to my prospect guide from 2010, the last sentence I wrote about Cozart was this:

    The key for Cozart will be to keep his bat at an acceptable level and he could become a quality starting shortstop
    Right now, I don't know that his bat is at an acceptable level and if it is, it is by the smallest margin possible.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 12-12-2012 at 07:52 PM.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Two years ago he upped his walk rate big time. Since then it has been cut in half.
    It's more likely that one year was an outlier since every other stop before and after has been 5-6%.

    That said, he's just now entering his prime and he will be heading into his second full season in the bigs. It's very, very likely he shows improvement. Bill James' projections have him upping his walk rate, lowering K rate, and consequently, upping his OBP by 20 points and slugging by an additional 16 points. The end result is close to an additional win of offense this season. If so, he'd be nearly a 4-win player.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Bill James projections suck. They always have. I don't know who comes up with them (They are in his books/on his website, but I don't think that he actually has anything to do with them) or what formula is used, but they have consistently ranked far behind the other projection systems.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    A Rabbi with a frog on his shoulder walks into a bar. The bartender says, "Hey, where did you get that?" The frog says, "Brooklyn, they're everywhere."

    You could substitute good fielding SS for Rabbi, and major league free agent market for Brooklyn, and the joke still works.

    Jocketty could put out a tweet that the Reds are looking to sign a good defensive SS to back up Cozart, and he will get over a dozen messages from agents in a matter of minutes. And if Jocketty can't find a decent backup SS for close to MLB minimum salary, he should be fired.

    That said, I don't even think they need one. This team is a contending team even with Donald or Burriss at SS for the whole season.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #851
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Doug I'm not being snarky here, I want your honest opinion. Do you really think Didi can hit well enough to be an every day starter at short? Do you think he can outperform Cozart with the bat?

  13. #852
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Doug I'm not being snarky here, I want your honest opinion. Do you really think Didi can hit well enough to be an every day starter at short? Do you think he can outperform Cozart with the bat?
    "Can" is the important term here. "Will" would be a whole different question.

    Sorry to butt in, but "can" just allows an easy way out.

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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Here's how i look at the trade:

    Shin-Soo Choo is very good at baseball. Drew Stubbs isn't. If that upgrade costs the Reds a good glove, suspect bat minor league SS, then I make that trade every day.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #854
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I could counter with that Choo or Bruce in center is going to cost our starters pitches and innings (and runs),meaning they throw fewer, leaving more for the bullpen and thus making them less valuable and then adding in a few extra guys who aren't nearly as good to fill in needed innings for those guys.
    Yeah, but you can't counter with anything like 100 runs or even get close to that neighborhood, which is the point.

    We're doing straight addition on how many runs Choo is going to add to the lineup. Yet the lineup was massively inefficient last season, leaving 81 runs it theoretically earned in the RC column on the table. Choo fixes the greatest inefficiency in the lineup, replacing Stubbs and banishing Cozart to the bottom of the batting order.

    Choo + scoring efficiency (Choo-aided to a large extent) = an offense ready to take some names and kick some butt.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #855
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    A Rabbi with a frog on his shoulder walks into a bar. The bartender says, "Hey, where did you get that?" The frog says, "Brooklyn, they're everywhere."

    You could substitute good fielding SS for Rabbi, and major league free agent market for Brooklyn, and the joke still works.

    Jocketty could put out a tweet that the Reds are looking to sign a good defensive SS to back up Cozart, and he will get over a dozen messages from agents in a matter of minutes. And if Jocketty can't find a decent backup SS for close to MLB minimum salary, he should be fired.

    That said, I don't even think they need one. This team is a contending team even with Donald or Burriss at SS for the whole season.
    I agree with everything except that last paragraph. Yes, they are a contending team even with Donald or Burriss (but it's certainly harder)....but they STILL need one.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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