It seems that everyone thinks the deal should have been made. What is being debated I guess is that some believe there is no way this deal can't possibly work out for the Reds, where as some of us believe that there is plenty of risk for the trade to not work out. While it isn't a 50-50 scenario, it could be 60-40 or 70-30.
So you're saying the Reds shouldn't have made this deal?
I still think you're being inconsistent. Two years ago, you were singing Cozart's praises. Now you're convinced he can't get better and will probably get worse.
If they'd kept Gregorius and in two years traded the next up and coming shortstop, I surmise you'd be arguing against that too
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Exactly. It's not the slam dunk that many here think it is. I LOVE the trade, and I'm glad they made it. But I want some follow-up deals to address the holes it created. People were acting like we were dealing from a position of strength/depth. That wasn't the case. Sure, we had 2 MLB ready shortstops...one was borderline ready. But ZERO behind it. That's not depth.
Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 12-12-2012 at 07:48 PM.
Just not sure a .288 OBP, 1 win defender somehow works out to being a 3 win player. Doesn't quite add up in my head. Yeah, he had more power than other shortstops, but OBP>>>SLG and his OBP was really poor. Again, I could totally be wrong here, but that is just how I feel about it.
Two years ago he upped his walk rate big time. Since then it has been cut in half. And two years ago was two years ago. Things change in two years. Going back to my prospect guide from 2010, the last sentence I wrote about Cozart was this:
Right now, I don't know that his bat is at an acceptable level and if it is, it is by the smallest margin possible.The key for Cozart will be to keep his bat at an acceptable level and he could become a quality starting shortstop
Last edited by dougdirt; 12-12-2012 at 07:52 PM.
It's more likely that one year was an outlier since every other stop before and after has been 5-6%.
That said, he's just now entering his prime and he will be heading into his second full season in the bigs. It's very, very likely he shows improvement. Bill James' projections have him upping his walk rate, lowering K rate, and consequently, upping his OBP by 20 points and slugging by an additional 16 points. The end result is close to an additional win of offense this season. If so, he'd be nearly a 4-win player.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Bill James projections suck. They always have. I don't know who comes up with them (They are in his books/on his website, but I don't think that he actually has anything to do with them) or what formula is used, but they have consistently ranked far behind the other projection systems.
A Rabbi with a frog on his shoulder walks into a bar. The bartender says, "Hey, where did you get that?" The frog says, "Brooklyn, they're everywhere."
You could substitute good fielding SS for Rabbi, and major league free agent market for Brooklyn, and the joke still works.
Jocketty could put out a tweet that the Reds are looking to sign a good defensive SS to back up Cozart, and he will get over a dozen messages from agents in a matter of minutes. And if Jocketty can't find a decent backup SS for close to MLB minimum salary, he should be fired.
That said, I don't even think they need one. This team is a contending team even with Donald or Burriss at SS for the whole season.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Doug I'm not being snarky here, I want your honest opinion. Do you really think Didi can hit well enough to be an every day starter at short? Do you think he can outperform Cozart with the bat?
Here's how i look at the trade:
Shin-Soo Choo is very good at baseball. Drew Stubbs isn't. If that upgrade costs the Reds a good glove, suspect bat minor league SS, then I make that trade every day.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Yeah, but you can't counter with anything like 100 runs or even get close to that neighborhood, which is the point.
We're doing straight addition on how many runs Choo is going to add to the lineup. Yet the lineup was massively inefficient last season, leaving 81 runs it theoretically earned in the RC column on the table. Choo fixes the greatest inefficiency in the lineup, replacing Stubbs and banishing Cozart to the bottom of the batting order.
Choo + scoring efficiency (Choo-aided to a large extent) = an offense ready to take some names and kick some butt.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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