Yes and yes. Let's work under these presumptions that I have about Gregorius. He can hit you 10-15 home runs in a season (not today, but maybe in a year and moving forward). He will walk 6-7% of the time. He will strike out 15% of the time. He will hit you 25 doubles and 5 triples.
Math suggests then that he would hit roughly this:
In the above scenario I gave him a 6.5% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate. That is the kind of guy I see him as at the plate. Not today. But in the near future. At the MLB level.Code:PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SH SF AVG OBP SLG BABIP 600 546 150 25 5 13 39 90 5 5 5 .275 .326 .410 .306
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I never argued that he wasn't an overall addition. Simply that how much of an addition, we can't be sure about. I don't know that I want to give him credit for taking away stupidity from his manager who would have hit other players out of their spot. That isn't on him. It is on him that he will cost his pitchers pitches and thus innings all year long though. There isn't the right math for it, and overall I believe he creates a + amount of value for the team. I just don't know how much it is going to be and something like WAR isn't going to tell me.
All I know is Walt today said with Cozart they are set at SS for 5 or 6 years. They are moving Hamilton to CF. They dealt Didi. So my conclusion is that the Reds are more than comfortable with what Cozart is. And so am I, by extension. The power was legit and a nice sweetener, and if he can maintain that, even an OBP around .290 isn't really an issue on this team as currently constructed. He hits 8th and turns into JJ Hardy, sign me up.
Well, OBP is about twice as valuable as SLG is, so being 21 points worse there is a lot of lost value that you don't see when solely looking at OPS which weighs OBP and SLG as the same.
And my issue is that Cozart is a little below average offensively right now. But what happens if he takes even a tiny step back? Then we have a real problem with no internal solution to even consider thinking about. People were ready to run Stubs out of town for years because of his offense and he was considerably stronger offensively than Cozart has been.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Cozart of course played college ball creating a bit of drag on his development age wise.
Surely Cozart will gain from a year of big league experience regardless of current age but are there studies of average improvement in the second year sorted by age for those playing regularly? I would assume the player that reaches the bigs earlier in age will be blessed with more talent and therefore show a bigger jump but I expect that a 26 year old's second year around will not show a nonsignificant difference in hitting stats.
i ahven't read all the postings - if someone already said this then i apologize.
GABP appears to not have deep power alleys -thus it took away from Stubbs ability to show off his best asset -running a ball down in the gap (maybe that's why it's a great home run park). If this is the case, seems like it would be possible to get away with a CFer who doesn't have great range
Good management wires around people's limitations. Baker's limitation (though small) is hitting a non-hitter first. If the trade wires around that limitation -that's great planning by upper management. The job of any manager -at any level is to wire around limitations and promote strengths. Great move on 3 or 4 levels by GM.
Holy smokes. All I ever hear about Jay Bruce is "he's young"......"he's developing"......"he's only had a couple of years......he's gonna get better every year".........
Then suddenly with Cozart, who had a very good season for a rookie SS........it's like some people think he's hit his ceiling and won't improve. What he have.......something like 16 HR's???? He was awesome defensively. Geez. Made me forget who even played SS the last few years.......I seriously can't remember.
Then there's Gregorius. There's nothing in his minor league stats that stand out and say he's going to be a really good or even average major leaguer.
Reds won this trade hands down.
No one said the Reds didn't win it. No one.
A lot of things in Gregorius minor league career suggests he will be an average Major Leaguer.
Jay Bruce is younger than Zack Cozart by a year and a half. His talent is on an entirely different playing field, particularly at the plate. There is a lot more room for growth with a guy like Bruce than there is a guy like Cozart. Scouts have wondered aloud since day one whether he would ever be more than a .240 hitter in the Majors.
I guess you can say Cozart had a good rookie season if you want. But most rookies aren't nearly as old as Cozart is, so that doesn't really tell us much.
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