If Hamilton is ready, it's not just that he's ready........it's financials too. Reds probably can't afford what they have signed up now.
I wish they could re-sign Choo. I like what he brings to the table. Kind of makes me wish Billy would have panned out defensively as a SS. I'd love to have Choo in CF and Hamilton at SS. And don't get me wrong, I really like Cozart.
Just think if Hamilton was a solid SS. Think of the lineup:
C Hanoraco (Hanigan-Mesoraco for all you slow people )
Oh well. So many options to choose from.
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Would he be an upgrade? Maybe slightly, but probably not when you factor defense. The Reds picked Cozart, who is paid significantly less. Between Burriss, Cozart, and Donald, the Reds have their shortstop situation figured out, and it's already an upgrade over Cozart/Valdez.
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I'm curious if Doug or some of you other guys that follow the defensive stats more then I do can answer this question for me, Is there anything that looks at the OF defense as a whole rather then at just each individual player? Heres what I'm thinking, Choo might be a below avg CF but if we have 3 solid OFs can they as a whole make up for not having a top defensive CF? For example if a team had a great CF but then a horrible LF and a below avg RF would they possibly have worse outfield defense then a team like the Reds who have 3 guys that would probably all be above avg in left or right but below avg in center?
All the hand wringing over plan B for SS from this trade and whether Choo will make us long for 30 something Griffey Jr. in CF.
With SS, while I get that may be a need to be addressed, we are in December, 2012. So January through March depth at positions at various levels of the org. can be addressed.
Choo, as an average range RFer with a good arm, will likely be serviceable in CF. Maybe he'll make everyone happy and dive more and run into more walls, and not drop balls at the walls like our suddenly gold glove caliber former CFer. My guess, is he'll play a slightly below average CF, which can be mitigated with late inning defensive replacements when the offense posts 5-6 runs.
Paralysis by analysis. Oh, and I'm sure none of those discussions occurred prior to the deal. The Reds just went for the bat and have no clue whether there is a snowball's chance that Choo or Bruce can play center on a day to day basis.
I guess I've learned my lesson from chuckling at some hair brained things the Cards have done with their outfield D, like signed Berkman to play RF, the aforementioned Jay in CF, Matt Holliday butchering LF, several starts of Schumaker in CF. Glad to see the Reds not being penny wise (Stubbs getting to a few more fly balls that he can drop after he gets to them) and pound foolish (letting an opportunity to fill their desperate top of the order need slip by because the D will take a hit).
I conjecture one thing: if WJ did not make this move because of the downsides brought up in this thread, he would be lambasted---and rightly so.
Last edited by traderumor; 12-13-2012 at 10:25 AM.
Can't win with 'em
Can't win without 'em
I wouldn't be shocked if Cozart put up a .330 OBP. I wouldn't be surprised if after his first season in the bigs he was able to adjust. I wouldn't be surprised if moving him down in the order helped out his batting this season.
The point really is that playing Choo in CF is likely to significantly impact his overall value because it's likely he'll fair poorly so it's important to consider when evaluating a trade and valuing his impact on the team's potential.
That said, assuming he's a -10 defender in CF over the course of a full season (on average a corner outfielder gets dinged 10 runs for moving to center and he's been a slightly minus defender in the corner so this is a conservative estimate that gives him benefit of the doubt for his speed), he'd still be a 3.5 to 4 WAR player (assuming his bat produces along his career lines) despite having a defensive value that would've made him one of the worst qualified defensive centerfielders in the majors last season.
Stubbs was a 1.3 WAR player last year and he's been on a three year downward trend.
Choo makes the Reds significantly better despite the defensive problems his addition seem to present for the outfield. The calculus works on this one. I'm a huge proponent of defense but the goal is to get better and there are a gazillion ways to skin a cat. I think this move makes it more likely that the Reds play in a WS this season.
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Here's what I want out of SS: .300/.400/good defense. Cozart looks to be a good bet to hit that level for the next few years and he's super cheap.
Again, I'll preface this comment by reiterating that I am very happy with the Choo trade and happy as can be with Walt and the current state of the Reds. That said...
The way the events played out this week really make me wonder if there wasn't an even bigger trade the Reds could've made. Arizona is clearly enamored with Gregorius, and willing to basically trade Bauer for him almost straight up. So I wonder if the Reds could have really pulled off something like:
Leake, Corcino, Gregorius, Stubbs and Lutz for Upton and Bauer.
Upton is likely as good or better of a defensive CF than Choo.
Bauer could be the 6th starter/complement to Chapman, with each pitching about 140 IP in the 2013 rotation.
Oh well, it's all water under the bridge now (and I'm still happy). I'll have to wait until the 2014 offseason to reboot my efforts to trade for Justin Upton
But Upton is signed through 2015 and thus is far more valuable in a trade than Choo. Choo, of course, is a one-year rental.
I think the DiamondBacks would have wanted considerably more for Upton and Bauer. Probably Bailey, Gregorius, Corcino, maybe more.
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