I think at some point they get a Dontrel Willis type lefty on a minor league contract w/ a legit shot to be the 2nd left hander in the bullpen. If that guy makes the cut (or Chapman is relegated to the bullpen for whatever reason, Cingrani goes to AAA to keep working as a starter, if Cingrinrani has a good spring, he takes the 2nd lefty role next season.
I'm in the camp that thinks obtaining a LH batting backup and LHP bullpen guy are the only major holes to fill.
Cingrani, Corcino and Redman as kids in AAA would be complimented nicely by a veteran like John Lannan. Stephenson will be in AAA by season's end if he progresses like he did last year. (My addendum to Princeton's law: "challenge thy hitters and coddle thy pitchers" is that "when a pitcher is ready, he's ready; when a hitter is ready, he sometimes isn't." Stephenson is close to ready now.)
Lutz, HRod, B-Ham will all be available in AAA too, if the emergency need arises. Veteran hitters would be nice to stash there too.
IF the Reds were so inclined, a trade for Chase Headley would really secure the lineup. But I don't think that's at all realistic.
Last edited by Dan; 12-12-2012 at 09:26 AM.
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.
They're dealing from strength in almost all areas now. Aside from maybe signing Hanrahan and possibly two or three AAAA-types to compete for depth on the bench, in the pen or in Louisville's rotation, I don't see them needing to make any deals. If something came along that might let them land a near major-league ready guy that can help in the future though, I'd consider it.
Bullpen is the only area where I'd like to see a free agency signing or trade to add another quality arm.
"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."
And, since I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be able to be a starter at this point, I don't think Rolen will be back.
There will be a second lefty in the bullpen IMO. And FWIW I would make it a good one.
Keep in mind that Chappy is out of the pen, a huge loss for the pen. The Reds will have to counteract that with depth. They need good relievers, one after the other.
Just a guess, but I'd think the Reds will try and move Ondrusek and possibly Arredondo and replace them with a lefty. Hoover will play a big role this year, hope he comes through, he'll likely join the late innings crew with Brox and Marshall.
As for Masset, I think he'll begin at AAA after missing a season and then the Reds will see what he has.
It'd be a small move, but I'd look for them to sign a veteran catcher, preferably a LH hitter, to be assigned to Louisville. Dioner Navarro redux (although, yeah, he's a switch-hitter). They need the depth for the major-league club and could also use a veteran to handle the AAA pitchers. That said, I have no idea who would be available along those lines.
I still look for them to be in money saving mode and may try to dump some of the arb salaries (Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Masset somehow, even Leake) in exchange for the pieces you guys have mentioned, or possibly extend Latos and or Bailey with some savings built in this year. Maybe I've been Fay'd, but the budget looks really bloated, nearing 100 mil before the Arroyo deferal. Heck, they may extend Leake, how bout that?