Is Adam Dunn a potential Hall of Fame candidate?

[drowg14]

I don't mean bias in the sense of a "statistical bias". I'm referring to the fact that statistics count, they calculate, they quantify. People (voters) feel, judge, aim to please others.

A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'm going to give him less Home Runs this season", A voter can say "Adam Dunn isn't dedicated to baseball, I'd never vote for him for MVP". A statistic is unable to say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I am going to give him less walks this season", a voter can say "Adam Dunn strikes out all the time and plays bad defense, I'd never vote for a guy like that." I'm not saying these things happened but I'm just trying to point out that if a guy plays good enough for long enough to hit 600 Home Runs, IMO, you were watching greatness.

Hmm.. I get what you are getting at now with the bias thing.The big problem with all awards these days, mvp, cy young, HOF, is the voter bias. It's why I really stopped caring about them (apart from arguing about them on internet message boards ). Bias is what might keep one of the top 3 players ever out of the hall, bias is what won Miggy the mvp last year (as great as he was, Trout was better).

But the problem with Dunn is he didn't do anything positive except for hit HRs and walk. And his 2011 season is not a season someone should have if they are worthy for the Hall. I'm not saying there aren't players worse than him in the HOF, as there probably are. But I don't buy into the automatic qualifiers such as 500 hrs, 3000 hits etc. Then when you factor in the era in which Dunn played in, his numbers impress me less. And now that his k% has been over 30% for the past 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if it is because he's had to start cheating on fastballs in order to keep hitting so many HRs as his bat speed slows (I haven't watched him in several years so I can't say this is actually what is happening). So I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even reach 500/600 hrs.

Adam Dunn is/was a good baseball player. But, at least imho, he is far from great.

[drowg14]

I'll just say this... If you assigned his 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 stats to Ryan Howard, he finishes at least in the top 15 in the MVP voting. Maybe Dunn should try to get a Subway commercial?

Ryan was a very overrated player. But his 2006 was pretty legit (Pujols still should have won the MVP though). So Howard is a good comp in that neither one of them is really a great player.

[MoneyInTheBank]

But the problem with Dunn is he didn't do anything positive except for hit HRs and walk. And his 2011 season is not a season someone should have if they are worthy for the Hall. I'm not saying there aren't players worse than him in the HOF, as there probably are. But I don't buy into the automatic qualifiers such as 500 hrs, 3000 hits etc. Then when you factor in the era in which Dunn played in, his numbers impress me less. And now that his k% has been over 30% for the past 3 years, I wouldn't be surprised if it is because he's had to start cheating on fastballs in order to keep hitting so many HRs as his bat speed slows (I haven't watched him in several years so I can't say this is actually what is happening). So I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even reach 500/600 hrs.

Adam Dunn is/was a good baseball player. But, at least imho, he is far from great.

By no means am I considering a certain # of HRs an "automatic qualifier". I'm just saying that for a guy to average 34 HRs over 18 years to get over 600 is incredibly impressive no matter how you slice it.

When it comes to the steroid era, if you were a "non-juicing" player during that era (which we have no reason to believe he was juicing), wouldn't your numbers actually be MORE impressive because the pitchers were juicing at a high rate as well? I would be less impressed if his career numbers were driven by the steroid era, but his power numbers have stayed consistent (other than a 1 year outlier) well beyond.

Like I said, I don't expect Dunn to reach 600 HR. I don't think he wants to keep himself in baseball shape until he's 38. I see him playing another 2-3 years and walking away not caring for one second about his legacy or place in baseball history. I don't think he'll hang on a couple of extra years to reach statistical milestones.

[New York Red]

Let's look at his best seasons and compare. I would argue that Adam Dunn's "prime" or best season was probably 2004, the year he hit 46 HRs and had 101 RBIs. That year there were 5 other players (just in the national league) who all had at least 40 HRs. Out of those 6 players, he had the lowest BA, lowest OBP, lowest WAR, and was middle of the pack for walks.

2004 MVP NL Voting

So even in his best season, he was barely a top 5 offensive player in the NL. I don't think the bias was that heavy against Dunn. His WAR that year was only 15th in the NL.

Add in the fact he played in the league's most homer friendly park, and his value is lessened even more.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Add in the fact he played in the league's most homer friendly park, and his value is lessened even more.

According to ESPN Park Factors...

2001 - 14th (CIN)
2002 - 6th (CIN)
2003 - 7th (CIN)
2004 - 13th (CIN)
2005 - 6th (CIN)
2006 - 3rd (CIN)
2007 - 2nd (CIN)
2008 - 4th/10th (Traded to ARI Midseason)
2009 - 19th (WSH)
2010 - 15th (WSH)
2011 - 5th (CHI)
2012 - 4th (CHI)