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Thread: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

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  1. #1
    Stat geek...and proud
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    Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Not going to paste since it's a pay site, although I think it may be a free article, and I'm not completely sure of the rules on that. I found it quite interesting. I had option B for 7 of the 12 examples.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19163
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    It's free, so you're allowed to post a couple sentences. I ended up with a tie for all of them. I guess that makes me a moderate.

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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Good stuff. Tells you that even advanced metrics have built-in biases.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Good stuff. Tells you that even advanced metrics have built-in biases.
    I think especially advanced metrics have built in biases... the further a model gets away from raw data, the more assumptions it tends to include...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    My scoring: 2 for A, 3 for B, and 7 for C. I guess I should spend even more time on BaseballProspectus?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    My scoring: 2 for A, 3 for B, and 7 for C. I guess I should spend even more time on BaseballProspectus?
    Isn't c baseball-reference?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Isn't c baseball-reference?
    Oops, that's what I meant to type. I haven't spent significant time on BaseballProspectus in years...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    3 a
    4 b
    5 c

    What does that mean?

    If I understand this right, it confirms my bias against Fangraph's WAR?
    Last edited by LoganBuck; 12-16-2012 at 01:04 PM.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    Not going to paste since it's a pay site, although I think it may be a free article, and I'm not completely sure of the rules on that. I found it quite interesting. I had option B for 7 of the 12 examples.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19163
    For future reference, it's always OK to post a snippet, even of a pay article. It's covered by 'fair use,' generally speaking. Never post an article -- free or otherwise -- in its entirety though. That should be applied to any message board (though some sites let it go).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Half of my votes went with Fangraphs WAR. Two went with WARP. Four went with BRef.

    Still, I would be more interested in seeing how I side with pitchers. Then with position players. I do like BRef value for pitchers quite a bit more than I do with position players.

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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    My father is decent friends with a scout for the Cubs, I have posted about him before in here, but he is am old school scout who refuses to use any advance metrics or any stats at all other than that years and the previous years stats.....he uses his eyes to tell him what he needs to know.

    I will say this, he has missed on some top tier talent but he has hit on some also....I would consider him one of their best scouts....point being is that sometimes your eyes can tell you more than a website.....sometimes the opposite is true......but I am trusting my eyes more so than a website if I am to stake my rep on it.....bias comes into play in a lot, you have to learn to get passed that if you want to evaluate talent at a high level.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    My father is decent friends with a scout for the Cubs, I have posted about him before in here, but he is am old school scout who refuses to use any advance metrics or any stats at all other than that years and the previous years stats.....he uses his eyes to tell him what he needs to know.

    I will say this, he has missed on some top tier talent but he has hit on some also....I would consider him one of their best scouts....point being is that sometimes your eyes can tell you more than a website.....sometimes the opposite is true......but I am trusting my eyes more so than a website if I am to stake my rep on it.....bias comes into play in a lot, you have to learn to get passed that if you want to evaluate talent at a high level.
    His job is to assess players at the tools level. He doesn't need to look at stats because other people in that organization do. One thing he ought to be aware of is that the new regime with the Cubs surely will keep stats on its scouts.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    His job is to assess players at the tools level. He doesn't need to look at stats because other people in that organization do. One thing he ought to be aware of is that the new regime with the Cubs surely will keep stats on its scouts.
    I agree but one thing almost all scouts have in common is thst they all use stats as a heartbeat to their system.....he is one of the few who don't. So many of the advanced metric stats are the talk of the scout community yet a few of the old farts refuse to use them.....I am not saying that's good or bad cause I fall somewhere in the middle. I think you need to use the stats but you need to trust your eyes more than anything. From what I have been told the Cubs new brass is not letting ANYTHING go uncovered.

  14. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    I agree but one thing almost all scouts have in common is thst they all use stats as a heartbeat to their system.....he is one of the few who don't. So many of the advanced metric stats are the talk of the scout community yet a few of the old farts refuse to use them.....I am not saying that's good or bad cause I fall somewhere in the middle. I think you need to use the stats but you need to trust your eyes more than anything. From what I have been told the Cubs new brass is not letting ANYTHING go uncovered.
    It certainly depends on the set of eyes.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting article at Prospectus about different WAR systems.

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    I agree but one thing almost all scouts have in common is thst they all use stats as a heartbeat to their system.....he is one of the few who don't. So many of the advanced metric stats are the talk of the scout community yet a few of the old farts refuse to use them.....I am not saying that's good or bad cause I fall somewhere in the middle. I think you need to use the stats but you need to trust your eyes more than anything. From what I have been told the Cubs new brass is not letting ANYTHING go uncovered.
    Stats and scouts don't really measure the same thing.

    Stats count what a player has done and can place a run value on it. In general they help us better understand how much the various on-field events contribute to overall run scoring and prevention.

    A scout assesses a player's ability to play, current and future.

    Sure, stats be useful as a proxy for scouting. And scouting be used to estimate future stats. But are their core they aren't doing the same thing.

    What I'd love to see more of in the public domain is attempts to convert true scouting information into statistical projections. That is, I don't want a scout telling me a guy is a .280/20-30 HR type of guy. I want that raw information about what he's seeing. Then I want to see a body of evidence that says "guys who have X swing plane, who have good instincts, who don't jump at good breaking pitches and who get their hands through on inside fastballs or simply have "good makeup", as judged by a scout, end up putting up X, Y, Z kind of performances.

    A large part of my day job is program evaluation for non-profit organizations. We used mixed methods approaches and there's no way we could do our job well without a mix of quantitative and qualitative information. But they aren't simply different ways of measuring the same thing. That would be silly. They are ways measure different aspects of things in the most effective way.

    And while the use of the quantitative and qualitative vary depending the question and the balance shift over time based on what we already know, they never fully supplant the other because at the end of the day, they both have domains where they remain the most accurate and effective way of capturing information.

    All that said, I'm curious. The question WAR attempts to answer is this: Of a team's wins, how many wins can be attributed to X player's on-field production. That's it. We might try to use (and find it useful) for other things, but for that question, I'm not sure scouting adds anything other than perhaps some detail on why the player was able to do what he did (of failed to do).
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-16-2012 at 07:03 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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