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Thread: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky move?!

  1. #16
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    I think the lack of a third pitch and his intermittent command problems would be the bigger issues compared to him going to the dl so I agree with you.

    I just think Chapman is dominant as a closer and the bullpen was the strength of the club last year so why mess with it?
    because the reward if he is a good starter is huge, and the risk is rather minimal. Even if Chapman is not good, how much worse can he be than Leake? Broxton last year blew what, 1 more game the entire year than Chapman with similar save/hold opportunities.

    So this is not as big of a risk as you guys are making it out to be, and could be a massive reward. Give him half a year to start. If he doesn't work out, no big loss. Send him back to the bullpen and call up Leake (who has plenty of options). Heck, maybe Leake develops more in AAA with less pressure. He has not really had an opportunity to do that.

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  3. #17
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    IMO, there should be no debate about whether this is a risky move. It's a very risky move. The question should really be: Is the risk worth the reward? THAT debate will go on for pages
    If a team is on the cusp or a World Series appearance, how much risk do they want to take on? Even if moving Chapman to the rotation makes the Reds the best regular season team, what does that really mean in the playoffs? What if the Reds treat Chapman like Strasburg and pull him after so many innings and do not use him in the playoffs? A lot of questions for Reds' management to consider.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

  4. #18
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    He was a starter in Cuba and he was great and thats why the Reds signed him, to start! and last preseason when he was starting he did excellent as well, the only risk I see is injury and I'm thinking we are going to limit his innings and pull him out of the rotation towards the end of the season just as the Nats did with Strasburg.

  5. #19
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    Chapman couldn't even make it the whole season without having fatigue coming out of the bullpen throwing 60 innings, how many starts will he make before he goes on the dl with fatigue?
    You do realize that
    A. He has spent almost the entirety of his life as a starter.
    and
    B. You can develop arm fatigue in many different ways, such as not being accustomed to pitching on 3 consecutive days.

    Don't you?
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  6. #20
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    No...This is a BAD idea for the Reds...Heres why...Chapman could barely pitch 70 innings last year before he was fatigued....how is he supposed to throw 150? As you saw when Chapman became fatigued his velocity took a major hit..went from 101 to anywhere from 92-96. Still a pretty good fastball..but not untouchable. Now for everyone who said...well he was a starter in cuba and thats what we got him for...well Cuba is equivalent to low A ball...did you look at his numbers...not the most impressive numbers when we are talking about low A ball..completely different splits if it were major league talent. But back to the point. Chapman has 1 pitch he can control for a strike. This isnt a video game..you cant just give him pitches and have him be good. He could rarely ever control his slider last season..thats why he rarely threw it. And most of the time it was thrown just to mix things up and he followed with the fastball. Starting and Closing are completely different...you can survive on throwing only fastballs because the whole game the batters are seeing another pitcher throw 92 and a lot of junk balls...so when you bring someone in that is completely different than the last pitcher and he is throwing 100...yea its pretty difficult to time when you only get to see him once. Now lets throw him in the rotation....he isnt going to throw 98 + as a starter...thats just not going to happen...So it will be more like 94-95..which is still really good...but for MLB hitters that is very hittable. So the 1st time through the lineup he will be fine...but the second and third time through the lineup...they will be more comfortable against him..and with him not being able to control those other pitches (well he only really has a slider the changeup still has yet to bee seen) that well..you sit fastball..let him throw those other pitches..when was the last time chapman didnt throw a fastball to a batter? And then not to mention when he does get fatigued..because lets be honest...its going to happen..that fastball will drop even more...think baseball..dont think oh this guy throws fast so hes going to be awesome and the next randy johnson..think smart..take some time to really think about this...Just listen to Bronson and leCure...listen to thesee pitchers who know what it takes to become a starter and everything that comes along with it. Look at all the pitchers that have attempted this feet and not succeded. Chapman is not a waste in the bullpen..Its a guaranteed win when he comes on the field....now that isnt the case...why change this? Its not worth it

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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/sports/baseb...o-be-a-starter

    Interesting article stating pretty much everything i just did

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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    I'm torn on this. I absolutely believe it's a risky move. I also question where it leaves the back end of our bullpen if/when he is starting. I think it's going to be a headache to play games with his innings all year to keep him available for October.

    I do think there is additional upside to having your best pitchers in the rotation though so it might be worth the risk. I'm not sure. Obviously, there is a decent chance it goes flawlessly and we look back on this as a great move and pretend the risks weren't there.

  9. #23
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Of course there is some risk involved, but the risk is minimal compared to the potential reward. I think it's WELL worth what risk there if for many of the some reasons others have mentioned.

    - Closer is overrated. A very good SP is worth more than a CL. An ace is worth WAY more.

    - Chapman was a starter his entire career before coming to the Reds. (Remember, those that saw him last year in Spring Training before Mason went down said he was not just the best SP in the Reds camp, but the best in all of the AZ teams they had seen)

    - If it doesn't work out, you can move him back to the pen very easily.

    - I think the tired arm he had last year was due to pitching too often, not too many innings. I think he may be better suited to through more innings and then have a longer rest.
    Sto Pro Veritate

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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by coachpipe View Post
    http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/sports/baseb...o-be-a-starter

    Interesting article stating pretty much everything i just did
    That had to be one of the worst articles I have ever read.

    First, his statement comparing starters pitch numbers vs. bullpen pitch numbers is simply ignorant. You can't compare the two. Just ask yourself this, why don't bullpen pitchers throw 100+ innings?

    70+ innings out of the bullpen is a heavy workload on any pitcher.

    Second, control is an issue with Chapman because he has not thrown more than 2 innings in MLB? WTF? Control was vastly improved last year, and his BB/9 rate was above average (above as in better than average). So not only is his point wrong, but the point he hasn't pitched more than 2 innings makes no sense. It wasn't his job to pitch more than 2 innings.

    Third, pitches has been mentioned here. This should be his key to starting, although there have been successful pitchers in the past who have done well starting with only 2 real pitches as long as they are really good pitches.

    Fourth, closers are simply not that important. Everybody with half a brain knows that. There is a reason the greatest closer in the history of baseball was only the 16th highest paid pitcher last year, and money being spent on closers is falling even further behind starters.

    Like I have stated over and over again, no team ever keeps a guy in the bullpen unless they know he can't start (very limited exceptions and that normally deals with teams that have 5 top of the line starters which the Reds don't have). The Reds need to find out if Chapman can start. People here saying the Reds should do the opposite simply need to look at David Price and Adam Wainwright. Should the Rays and the Cards kept those guys in the bullpen? Same situation. Both teams were pennant contenders, both of those guys played well in the bullpen when they fist came up to the majors, and both were supposed to be starters before being forced into bullpen work short term.

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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    I would LOVE to see Chapman succeed..Im not disagreeing with you that the closer role is overrated...but at the same time it can be argued that it shortens the game. Im sure the Yanks will disagree about the closer role not being important..but the problem chapman has is consistency and stamina...If he can sort those two things out...he will be a dominant starter..but another problem the Reds face with this situation that everyone seems to be forgetting is Dusty Baker is the Reds manager. I know I know..he gets a bad wrap for ruining pitchers arms...but there is also a reason for that...He has a history of ruining pitchers arms. Is Dusty going to know when to bull Chapman out of a game? Most managers..or even fans will probably agree with this rule of thumb...atleast this is what i was always taught... If you have a 1-2 run lead and your starting pitcher is going into the 7th/8th inning...you HAVE to be warming someone up...If he allows the first batter on...you get ready to put in the reliever.. Too many instances have occurred where Dusty keeps that pitcher in..then he gives up another hit..and you have 1st and 3rd..no one out..and then he brings the reliever in..sometimes you just have to pull him to get that W. I hope Chapman stays healthy and the whole reds pitching staff and coaches are watching him every second of every pitch to know when to slow him down/rest him/ anything to keep him healthy..Players..especially pitchers who are trying to prove something are going to be hesitant to tell coaches something doesnt feel right and the coaches have to make sure they can spot when something is wrong...Even if I or anyone doesnt agree with this..Jockety is already moving Chapman to the rotation..Is it Ironic Baker doesnt want this move because he might be scared he may ruin another arm? just came to mind..IDk..but Jockety is already having him be a starter..They just havent decided on when in the season...Personally after seeing how strasburg was shut down last year..I sort of hope they throw him in a long relievers role to start the season..and slowly work on his innings then by playoff time they hopefully wont have to shut him down

  12. #26
    Member LeDoux's Avatar
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    If a team is on the cusp or a World Series appearance, how much risk do they want to take on? Even if moving Chapman to the rotation makes the Reds the best regular season team, what does that really mean in the playoffs? What if the Reds treat Chapman like Strasburg and pull him after so many innings and do not use him in the playoffs? A lot of questions for Reds' management to consider.
    That's true, but couldn't they "shut him down" by placing him in the bullpen after the all-star break?

  13. #27
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Yes, but the reward potential outweighs the risk. He's had some time in the minors as well as last year's spring training and if there was a time to make the switch it is now.

    Set him free.

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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    You do realize that
    A. He has spent almost the entirety of his life as a starter.
    and
    B. You can develop arm fatigue in many different ways, such as not being accustomed to pitching on 3 consecutive days.

    Don't you?
    Most if not all pitchers in the bigs spent their entire career as a starter.

    Did he pitch 200+ innings a year in Cuba on a 5 day schedule? I am not sure.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  15. #29
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    Most if not all pitchers in the bigs spent their entire career as a starter.

    Did he pitch 200+ innings a year in Cuba on a 5 day schedule? I am not sure.
    None of the Reds starters pitched over 200 innings on a 5 day schedule until they started pitching in the bigs, and there are numerous very successful pitchers that pitched in the bullpen and then moved to starters. Chapman's starting routine was not different than Mike Leake before he became a starter in the major leagues.

    Oh, and certainly not all pitchers spend their entire career as a starter. I assume you mean starter, and even then I just gave you David Price and Adam Wainwright who didn't start as a starter. That would be a Cy Young winner and a Cy Young runner up. RA Dickey was a reliever. Roy Halladay made 25 relief appearances with the Jays in his early days. John Smoltz, of course, spent time as a closer before coming back to be an All Star starter again.
    Last edited by scott91575; 12-17-2012 at 10:38 PM.

  16. #30
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    Re: Am l the only person who thinks moving Chapman to the rotation is a very risky mo

    Quote Originally Posted by coachpipe View Post
    I would LOVE to see Chapman succeed..Im not disagreeing with you that the closer role is overrated...but at the same time it can be argued that it shortens the game. Im sure the Yanks will disagree about the closer role not being important..but the problem chapman has is consistency and stamina...If he can sort those two things out...he will be a dominant starter..but another problem the Reds face with this situation that everyone seems to be forgetting is Dusty Baker is the Reds manager. I know I know..he gets a bad wrap for ruining pitchers arms...but there is also a reason for that...He has a history of ruining pitchers arms. Is Dusty going to know when to bull Chapman out of a game? Most managers..or even fans will probably agree with this rule of thumb...atleast this is what i was always taught... If you have a 1-2 run lead and your starting pitcher is going into the 7th/8th inning...you HAVE to be warming someone up...If he allows the first batter on...you get ready to put in the reliever.. Too many instances have occurred where Dusty keeps that pitcher in..then he gives up another hit..and you have 1st and 3rd..no one out..and then he brings the reliever in..sometimes you just have to pull him to get that W. I hope Chapman stays healthy and the whole reds pitching staff and coaches are watching him every second of every pitch to know when to slow him down/rest him/ anything to keep him healthy..Players..especially pitchers who are trying to prove something are going to be hesitant to tell coaches something doesnt feel right and the coaches have to make sure they can spot when something is wrong...Even if I or anyone doesnt agree with this..Jockety is already moving Chapman to the rotation..Is it Ironic Baker doesnt want this move because he might be scared he may ruin another arm? just came to mind..IDk..but Jockety is already having him be a starter..They just havent decided on when in the season...Personally after seeing how strasburg was shut down last year..I sort of hope they throw him in a long relievers role to start the season..and slowly work on his innings then by playoff time they hopefully wont have to shut him down
    I am not normally that guy, and this is honest constructive criticism. Please use some better punctuation than ellipses (which are incorrectly used every single time). That is really hard to read, and I had to simply stop in the middle because it becomes a confusing run on mess.


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