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Thread: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Anyone else catch this from ESPN today? Seems the Reds are getting some respect for 2013 already. Here's the love David Schoenfield gives our beloved team:

    2. Cincinnati Reds (97-65, plus-81)

    The Reds solved their big hole in the leadoff position by acquiring Shin-Soo Choo, and Jack Hannahan and Jason Donald will improve a bench that carried Miguel Cairo and Wilson Valdez in 2012. The biggest move, however, will be the transition of Aroldis Chapman to the rotation, with Jonathan Broxton taking over as closer. The Reds' rotation was outstanding in 2012, but also went through the season without the five starters missing a single start. But the Reds do have depth here in case Chapman falters or Bronson Arroyo regresses from a strong 2012.

    Strengths: Joey Votto; rotation depth; bullpen depth.

    Weaknesses: outfield defense with Choo in center; some players -- Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier, Johnny Cueto -- will have to repeat their big seasons.
    Last edited by RedEye; 12-16-2012 at 11:24 PM.
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    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    seems like a fair assessment of the Reds to me. As for his overall top 10, he left both the Angels and Giants out of it, expecting the Angels to finish 3rd in the division again. I think you have to
    Last edited by cincinnati chili; 12-17-2012 at 12:20 AM.
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    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Broxton is not the answer at closer....maybe if this were 2007...
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Broxton is not the answer at closer....maybe if this were 2007...
    If Broxton the Reds from 2012 shows up, he can close. If Broxton the Royal from 2012, be worried.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Broxton the Reds from 2012 shows up, he can close. If Broxton the Royal from 2012, be worried.
    I'm betting we're getting Broxton the Red in 2013. Broxton the Royal was still shaking off the rust in the early days of his comeback from TJ surgery. By the time he got to the Reds, his control appeared to have returned, and his K/9 and K/BB rates were pretty dominant.
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Broxton the Reds from 2012 shows up, he can close. If Broxton the Royal from 2012, be worried.
    Frankly, I'm not even sure about Broxton the Red. It's hard to be confident in any closer when you had Chapman in 2012. Nobody would be that dominant.

    The solace, to me, is Hoover. If Brox has trouble, I could see Hoover moving into the closer position. He has the stuff.

    The other point is that Chapman could still wind up closing. It's a long shot but Walt said Aroldis might begin the season in the pen (to keep innings down) and if that happens, who knows. Leake could start off hot and the Reds might not change things.

    And, of course, they could use Marshall although I think he's better as a set up man for a number of reasons.

    So there are back up plans, even with no additional personnel.

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Broxton is not the answer at closer....maybe if this were 2007...
    It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.
    I think Broxton will be good enough to close, but he's obviously a step down from Chapman.
    People bring up a good point about save percentage over the course of the season. Someone pointed out that Chapman's actual save percentage last year was only marginally better than others. This team is pretty deep in the bullpen and rotation. I am guessing even a Danny Graves type closer might be adequate. As long as Broxton isn't 2011 Coco, we probably still win the division.
    If we make the playoffs though, save situations will be a little bit more tense than if Chapman was in there.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I am guessing even a Danny Graves type closer might be adequate. As long as Broxton isn't 2011 Coco, we probably still win the division.
    The difference in save % between the 2011 Cordero and the 2012 Chapman is that the 2011 Cordero had one more save opportunity and one more blown save. Though Chapman had an additional 6 holds that needs to be calculated into the equation, since one of his blown saves came in a hold situation prior to him being closer.

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The difference in save % between the 2011 Cordero and the 2012 Chapman is that the 2011 Cordero had one more save opportunity and one more blown save. Though Chapman had an additional 6 holds that needs to be calculated into the equation, since one of his blown saves came in a hold situation prior to him being closer.
    I didn't realize it was that close.
    Another strong point that Broxton will probably be more than adequate as closer.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.
    I think Broxton will be good enough to close, but he's obviously a step down from Chapman.
    People bring up a good point about save percentage over the course of the season. Someone pointed out that Chapman's actual save percentage last year was only marginally better than others. This team is pretty deep in the bullpen and rotation. I am guessing even a Danny Graves type closer might be adequate. As long as Broxton isn't 2011 Coco, we probably still win the division.
    If we make the playoffs though, save situations will be a little bit more tense than if Chapman was in there.
    Then again, looking at the possible offense...we might not even HAVE a save situation all year. :O)
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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Ya gotta figure the Blue Jays should move into the top 10 after the Dickey trade.

    Yet another plus factor for the Nats is having Storen for a full season. It would be a disappointment if that team wins less than 95 games...
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Anyone else catch this from ESPN today? Seems the Reds are getting some respect for 2013 already. Here's the love David Schoenfield gives our beloved team:
    Looks like they did the classic "Your 2013 assessment = your 2012 final record + your offseason". Unfortunately, it doesn't really work that way.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member smith288's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Looks like they did the classic "Your 2013 assessment = your 2012 final record + your offseason". Unfortunately, it doesn't really work that way.
    How else would you judge them during the offseason?

    Go watch each player workout and get a sense of their determination for the upcoming season?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by smith288 View Post
    How else would you judge them during the offseason?

    Go watch each player workout and get a sense of their determination for the upcoming season?
    No. There are better ways to project next season's performance than simply by assuming they'll repeat last year. And they don't involve watching the player work out.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Power Rankings: Nationals, Reds 1-2

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    No. There are better ways to project next season's performance than simply by assuming they'll repeat last year. And they don't involve watching the player work out.
    Yeah, I didn't take this as much more than a conventional wisdom barometer. Still, nice to see the Reds getting some play. Only time will tell, of course.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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