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Thread: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

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    Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Breaking down his splits between the two teams it seems that once he moved over to the Reds from KC his SO/BB went from 1.79 to 6.67 while his whip also dropped from a 1.402 to a 1.030...

    There are a lot smarter guys on Baseball on this forum and people who follow it a lot closer. What changes did Brian Price make with him that helped him achieve these hug improvements...

    Doug, KC61????

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    That K/BB rate isn't likely sustainable. When he was at his best back in LA, he never touched anything like that.

    Perhaps there was a familiarity factor, or lack there of, going on with him and some of the league. I am sure that there is more to it than that, but that being part of it wouldn't surprise me.

    I haven't look at the video to see if there is any difference in mechanics.

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    He reportedly added a cutter late in the season that had a huge effect on his pitching particularly to RH hitters.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    He reportedly added a cutter late in the season that had a huge effect on his pitching particularly to RH hitters.
    Ah yes. This is true. Fangraphs had something on it. You can check that out here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tons-cutter-2/

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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Interesting question.

    Brox was a good closer for KC in April, May and June. Sub-.700 OPS against in all three monts. Good K rate in April and June (8.2, 9.0), fell off in May (3.8). Walked 12 guys in those three months in about 30 innings, too much.

    Hardly pitched in July, five outings. In August, allowed an .814 OPS against, but he did change leagues on July 31. I give him a pass for July and August.

    Spectacular September. 15 outings, 14 Ks, 1 BB, OPS against was .501.

    So we really have a tale of three seasons. First part, a solid but not spectacular closer with KC. Second part, ineffective probably due to lack of use and then a trade to a new league. Third part, in September, excellent numbers as a set up man.

    I agree with Doug that Broxton's September K/BB rate is not sustainable. However, I do think he can be a bit better than the solid closer from April, May and June because his walks were unusually high then and he should be healthier with the passage of time from 2011 injury.

    My hope is that he is a bit better than the April, May, June 2012 closer for KC, which would be just fine.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-17-2012 at 02:51 PM.

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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead
    What changes did Brian Price make with him that helped him achieve these hug improvements...
    They assigned Sean Casey to be his special instructor.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    I respect the heck out of Price in what he has done here and how he has handled the pitchers over the last couple of years. Adding the cutter maybe brings him back into the top 5 of the league...

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    I think it's a combination of the cutter, the velocity going up slightly and simply shaking off the rust. Again, not to beat a dead horse, but the guy was coming off major surgery. It should have been a foregone conclusion that it would take a while to build up his strength and stamina again.

    The Royals said repeatedly his velocity was improving early in the season. Scouts were saying the same in July when scouting him. There is one site that shows the velocity improved nearly a couple MPH over the first four months.
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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    And it could be that early in the season, he was still recovering from his 2011 surgery. From an ESPN article last July 24th:
    After numerous setbacks recovering from a bone bruise in his right pitching elbow, Broxton had surgery in September to remove two bone spurs and three bone chips in the elbow. He didn't begin throwing again until early January.
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

    Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

    Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.
    Interesting. The velocity is a bit less in July and August, Broxton's worst two months.

    While his velocity didn't suddenly improve much in September, Brox wasn't a bad closer earlier in the year. With the rust off, with a new pitch, with a good infield defense (ground ball pitcher), if things go right he can be a good closer.

    No sure thing, but could work out for the Reds.

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

    Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.
    Three years of dominance, then a year of decline, probably the year he pitched with the injury, then the year he had the surgery.....but only 22 innings to project Broxton's likely performance?

    Plus, a 95+ fastball is still power pitching, regardless of the number of guys throwing in the 97+ range these days, so it isn't like he is no longer a power pitcher.

    I expect an above average reliever out of Broxton. I would consider that to play well in whatever inning he pitches.
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Three years of dominance, then a year of decline, probably the year he pitched with the injury, then the year he had the surgery.....but only 22 innings to project Broxton's likely performance?

    Plus, a 95+ fastball is still power pitching, regardless of the number of guys throwing in the 97+ range these days, so it isn't like he is no longer a power pitcher.

    I expect an above average reliever out of Broxton. I would consider that to play well in whatever inning he pitches.
    Where did I argue only 22 innings inform his future performance? I argued otherwise and specifically argued that anyone expecting his performance as a Red going forward only has 22 innings....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Where did I argue only 22 innings inform his future performance? I argued otherwise and specifically argued that anyone expecting his performance as a Red going forward only has 22 innings....
    No, they have his Dodgers years to look at as well. I also presume "better" referred to the KC stint? But, then, reading the above, I have no idea where you're going.
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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    No, they have his Dodgers years to look at as well. I also presume "better" referred to the KC stint? But, then, reading the above, I have no idea where you're going.
    If someone is expecting performances derived from a k/bb rate of 6.7, they have 22 innings.....

    Please carefully reread the posts you're confused by as the point being made is straightforward.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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