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Thread: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

  1. #46
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

    But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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  3. #47
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

    But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.
    Pretty decent? How many guys do that?
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

  4. #48
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

    But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.
    I'll admit, you got a laugh out of me.

  5. #49
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I'll admit, you got a laugh out of me.
    Since 1969

    Code:
    SEASON
    1969-2012
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .290
    HOMERUNS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
    
    OPS                           YEAR     OPS      AVG      HR     
    1    Willie McCovey           1970    1.056     .289       39   
    2    Jack Clark               1987    1.055     .286       35   
    3    Jeff Bagwell             1997    1.017     .286       43   
    4    Jim Thome                2006    1.014     .288       42   
    5    Jim Edmonds              2003    1.002     .275       39   
    6    Jim Thome                1997    1.001     .286       40   
    7    Carlos Beltran           2006     .982     .275       41   
    8    Darryl Strawberry        1987     .981     .284       39   
    9    Jim Thome                2004     .977     .274       42   
    10   Jim Thome                2007     .973     .275       35   
    11   John Jaha                1999     .970     .276       35   
    12   Mike Schmidt             1977     .967     .274       38   
    13   Jeff Bagwell             2001     .966     .288       39   
    14   Carlos Quentin           2008     .965     .288       36   
    15   Frank Howard             1970     .962     .283       44   
    16   Rafael Palmeiro          2002     .962     .273       43   
    17   David Justice            2000     .961     .286       41   
    18   Darrell Evans            1973     .959     .281       41   
    19   Adrian Gonzalez          2009     .958     .277       40   
    20   Harmon Killebrew         1970     .957     .271       41   
    21   Rafael Palmeiro          2000     .954     .288       39   
    22   Fred McGriff             1992     .950     .286       35   
    23   Mike Schmidt             1982     .949     .280       35   
    24   Carlos Delgado           1999     .948     .272       44   
    25   Carlos Delgado           2001     .948     .279       39   
    26   Morgan Ensberg           2005     .945     .283       36   
    27   Shawn Green              2002     .944     .285       42   
    28   Alex Rodriguez           1999     .943     .285       42   
    29   Ken Griffey Jr.          2000     .942     .271       40   
    30   Mike Schmidt             1974     .941     .282       36   
    31   Edwin Encarnacion        2012     .941     .280       42   
    32   Mike Schmidt             1986     .937     .290       37   
    33   Ryan Howard              2009     .931     .279       45   
    34   Jay Bell                 1999     .931     .289       38   
    35   Josh Hamilton            2012     .930     .285       43   
    36   Mark Teixeira            2004     .929     .281       38   
    37   Howard Johnson           1989     .928     .287       36   
    38   Jason Bay                2006     .928     .286       35   
    39   Rafael Palmeiro          1996     .927     .289       39   
    40   Gary Sheffield           2004     .927     .290       36   
    41   Richie Sexson            2003     .927     .272       45   
    42   Jesse Barfield           1986     .927     .289       40   
    43   Frank Thomas             2006     .926     .270       39   
    44   Jay Buhner               1996     .926     .271       44   
    45   Albert Belle             1993     .922     .290       38   
    46   Pat Burrell              2002     .920     .282       37   
    47   Mike Schmidt             1984     .919     .277       36   
    48   Dale Murphy              1984     .919     .290       36   
    49   Davey Johnson            1973     .916     .270       43   
    50   Jeromy Burnitz           2004     .916     .283       37   
    51   Jose Canseco             1990     .914     .274       37   
    52   Sammy Sosa               2003     .911     .279       40   
    53   Paul Konerko             2005     .909     .283       40   
    54   Reggie Jackson           1982     .907     .275       39   
    55   George Foster            1978     .906     .281       40   
    56   Steve Finley             2000     .904     .280       35   
    57   Bobby Bonds              1973     .900     .283       39   
    58   Bill Hall                2006     .899     .270       35   
    59   Jeff Bagwell             2003     .897     .278       39   
    60   Paul Konerko             2004     .894     .277       41   
    61   Dave Winfield            1982     .891     .280       37   
    62   Richie Sexson            2001     .889     .271       45   
    63   Ryan Braun               2008     .888     .285       37   
    64   Alex Rodriguez           2004     .888     .286       36   
    65   Sammy Sosa               1996     .888     .273       40   
    66   Henry Rodriguez          1996     .887     .276       36   
    67   Dale Murphy              1982     .885     .281       36   
    68   Jeff Burroughs           1977     .882     .271       41   
    69   Preston Wilson           2003     .880     .282       36   
    70   Darryl Strawberry        1990     .879     .277       37   
    71   Dean Palmer              1996     .876     .280       38   
    72   David Justice            1993     .871     .270       40   
    73   Adrian Gonzalez          2008     .871     .279       36   
    74   Carlos Delgado           2008     .871     .271       38   
    75   Terry Steinbach          1996     .871     .272       35   
    76   Vinny Castilla           2004     .867     .271       35   
    77   Lee May                  1971     .864     .278       39   
    78   Mo Vaughn                2000     .864     .272       36   
    79   Lee May                  1969     .860     .278       38   
    80   George Scott             1975     .857     .285       36   
    81   Ron Gant                 1993     .854     .274       36   
    82   Andruw Jones             2003     .851     .277       36   
    83   Shawn Green              1998     .844     .278       35   
    84   Aaron Hill               2009     .829     .286       36   
    85   Garret Anderson          2000     .827     .286       35   
    86   Steve Finley             2004     .823     .271       36   
    87   Tony Armas               1980     .810     .279       35

  6. #50
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    I see the vocabulary posters are out in full force.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  7. #51
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Real interesting study. Apparently one of the keys to being what we define as a great hitter is a lack of volatility - Jeter, Rose, Suzuki, Boggs, Molitor and Gwynn are some of the least volatile hitters in recent history. And it underlines how amazing Jeter is. I'm married to a Yankees fan, so I see a pile of Yankees games every year. Jeter is a force of nature. Game after game he's at the center of key moments. He's relentless and that's why he's revered as a quasi-religious icon by Yankees fans. The more you watch him the more you come to appreciate just how amazing a player he is.

    Also not terribly surprising to see Raines, Abreu, Lofton and Butler on that list. A lot of what made those guys so good was their consistency. And their speed isn't factored into this equation, so they brought danger on the bases on top of the their consistency at the plate.

    Pretty exciting to see Choo near the top of the 2012 list. That's what the Reds need, a consistent threat at the top of the lineup. He really is an ideal fit for the lineup. And the list creates yet more fodder for those who insist Hanigan should hit in the #2 slot, though Phillips graded pretty steady as well.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #52
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    Pretty decent? How many guys do that?
    Falling one short of that bottom 35 mark, he placed 10th in the majors in home runs hit. Not bad company right there.
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  9. #53
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Since 1969

    Code:
    SEASON
    1969-2012
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .290
    HOMERUNS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
    
    OPS                           YEAR     OPS      AVG      HR     
    1    Willie McCovey           1970    1.056     .289       39   
    2    Jack Clark               1987    1.055     .286       35   
    3    Jeff Bagwell             1997    1.017     .286       43   
    4    Jim Thome                2006    1.014     .288       42   
    5    Jim Edmonds              2003    1.002     .275       39   
    6    Jim Thome                1997    1.001     .286       40   
    7    Carlos Beltran           2006     .982     .275       41   
    8    Darryl Strawberry        1987     .981     .284       39   
    9    Jim Thome                2004     .977     .274       42   
    10   Jim Thome                2007     .973     .275       35   
    11   John Jaha                1999     .970     .276       35   
    12   Mike Schmidt             1977     .967     .274       38   
    13   Jeff Bagwell             2001     .966     .288       39   
    14   Carlos Quentin           2008     .965     .288       36   
    15   Frank Howard             1970     .962     .283       44   
    16   Rafael Palmeiro          2002     .962     .273       43   
    17   David Justice            2000     .961     .286       41   
    18   Darrell Evans            1973     .959     .281       41   
    19   Adrian Gonzalez          2009     .958     .277       40   
    20   Harmon Killebrew         1970     .957     .271       41   
    21   Rafael Palmeiro          2000     .954     .288       39   
    22   Fred McGriff             1992     .950     .286       35   
    23   Mike Schmidt             1982     .949     .280       35   
    24   Carlos Delgado           1999     .948     .272       44   
    25   Carlos Delgado           2001     .948     .279       39   
    26   Morgan Ensberg           2005     .945     .283       36   
    27   Shawn Green              2002     .944     .285       42   
    28   Alex Rodriguez           1999     .943     .285       42   
    29   Ken Griffey Jr.          2000     .942     .271       40   
    30   Mike Schmidt             1974     .941     .282       36   
    31   Edwin Encarnacion        2012     .941     .280       42   
    32   Mike Schmidt             1986     .937     .290       37   
    33   Ryan Howard              2009     .931     .279       45   
    34   Jay Bell                 1999     .931     .289       38   
    35   Josh Hamilton            2012     .930     .285       43   
    36   Mark Teixeira            2004     .929     .281       38   
    37   Howard Johnson           1989     .928     .287       36   
    38   Jason Bay                2006     .928     .286       35   
    39   Rafael Palmeiro          1996     .927     .289       39   
    40   Gary Sheffield           2004     .927     .290       36   
    41   Richie Sexson            2003     .927     .272       45   
    42   Jesse Barfield           1986     .927     .289       40   
    43   Frank Thomas             2006     .926     .270       39   
    44   Jay Buhner               1996     .926     .271       44   
    45   Albert Belle             1993     .922     .290       38   
    46   Pat Burrell              2002     .920     .282       37   
    47   Mike Schmidt             1984     .919     .277       36   
    48   Dale Murphy              1984     .919     .290       36   
    49   Davey Johnson            1973     .916     .270       43   
    50   Jeromy Burnitz           2004     .916     .283       37   
    51   Jose Canseco             1990     .914     .274       37   
    52   Sammy Sosa               2003     .911     .279       40   
    53   Paul Konerko             2005     .909     .283       40   
    54   Reggie Jackson           1982     .907     .275       39   
    55   George Foster            1978     .906     .281       40   
    56   Steve Finley             2000     .904     .280       35   
    57   Bobby Bonds              1973     .900     .283       39   
    58   Bill Hall                2006     .899     .270       35   
    59   Jeff Bagwell             2003     .897     .278       39   
    60   Paul Konerko             2004     .894     .277       41   
    61   Dave Winfield            1982     .891     .280       37   
    62   Richie Sexson            2001     .889     .271       45   
    63   Ryan Braun               2008     .888     .285       37   
    64   Alex Rodriguez           2004     .888     .286       36   
    65   Sammy Sosa               1996     .888     .273       40   
    66   Henry Rodriguez          1996     .887     .276       36   
    67   Dale Murphy              1982     .885     .281       36   
    68   Jeff Burroughs           1977     .882     .271       41   
    69   Preston Wilson           2003     .880     .282       36   
    70   Darryl Strawberry        1990     .879     .277       37   
    71   Dean Palmer              1996     .876     .280       38   
    72   David Justice            1993     .871     .270       40   
    73   Adrian Gonzalez          2008     .871     .279       36   
    74   Carlos Delgado           2008     .871     .271       38   
    75   Terry Steinbach          1996     .871     .272       35   
    76   Vinny Castilla           2004     .867     .271       35   
    77   Lee May                  1971     .864     .278       39   
    78   Mo Vaughn                2000     .864     .272       36   
    79   Lee May                  1969     .860     .278       38   
    80   George Scott             1975     .857     .285       36   
    81   Ron Gant                 1993     .854     .274       36   
    82   Andruw Jones             2003     .851     .277       36   
    83   Shawn Green              1998     .844     .278       35   
    84   Aaron Hill               2009     .829     .286       36   
    85   Garret Anderson          2000     .827     .286       35   
    86   Steve Finley             2004     .823     .271       36   
    87   Tony Armas               1980     .810     .279       35
    The problem with your analysis is that I said between .260 and .270. You must have flipped the "6".

    Just kidding.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  10. #54
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Interesting "most volatile" players:

    • James Loney
    • Casey McGehee
    • Mitch Moreland
    For a few years there Loney might have been the single most overrated player in baseball. And his game is not going to age well.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #55
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Everyone has an opinion on Jay
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  12. #56
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Not sure if this adds to your comment, or explains it, or just adds to the confusion, but here goes...

    I bowl. A lot. Average over 220, which even in this day and age is pretty elite. I definitely have more "down" days than up days. The thing is, my baseline is so high that my down days aren't really all that down (say I have a 620 series which is 40 pins under my overall average) but when I do well, I do really well (last night I had 744 series, which is 84 pins over my average). So what I am is remarkably consistent on the lower end of my scoring, and when I do deviate greatly from my norm, it's in the positive range.

    I see Votto as the same way. He does his 2-strike choke-up because he's striving to maintain his high baseline performance. Bruce doesn't change his approach in order to maintain a baseline. Therefore Votto is (or appears to be?) less volatile than Bruce is.
    I guess it depends on how you want to measure consistency. Let say you have a .400 wOBA player, but he's super streaky.. Shouldn't his stretch of "hot" periods increase his volatility? If he has a bigger spread on his performance (even if his "bad' period are above average), doesn't that make him more volatile.

    I guess high volatility isn't necessarily a bad thing, IMO.

    Anyhow, I have problems with this formula penalizing the lower performing players. IMO, it makes it almost useless to compare players.
    If the mean performance of a player is high, then naturally when he has a 0-4 day it should mean more volality than a guy that stinks.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  13. #57
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    I recall some computer modeling that showed adding in one base-hitty type to a OB and power lineup performed better than an all OB and power lineup.

    Besides his D, that's why Phillips was always more valuable than his OPS, it's hit-heavy and he can run.

    Interesting that Choo had more hits than anyone on the Reds last year. Nice.
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  14. #58
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I recall some computer modeling that showed adding in one base-hitty type to a OB and power lineup performed better than an all OB and power lineup.

    Besides his D, that's why Phillips was always more valuable than his OPS, it's hit-heavy and he can run.

    Interesting that Choo had more hits than anyone on the Reds last year. Nice.

    Except that Phillips can't run.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  15. #59
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Except that Phillips can't run.
    He can run, he just can't steal anymore

  16. #60
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    He can run, he just can't steal anymore
    15 of 17 this year says otherwise.

    The few years before then were bad though.


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