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Thread: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

  1. #31
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I did use it.
    Sure you mentioned his other value, but you HEAVILY weighted his OBP to the point you couldn't seem to get past it. Your short above quote has forced me to actually pull the quotes.

    But will he be able to acquire someone who can actually play shortstop at the MLB level if Cozart continues to OBP .290?
    Might be a mistake. 27 years old. Career .290 MLB OBP.
    Projects to be better than our current shortstop. Who was a league average player this season. The days where every shortstop hits like Tulo are over.
    I can't believe the amount of people who don't find concern in a 27 year old with a career .290 OBP being a starter. Yes, he has things he brings to the table that are certainly good.
    First, Cozart was 12th in WAR for SS in fWAR (2.7). He had a 2.4 bWAR. (I'm not smart enough to figure out where he ranks on that site. )

    My point being, he was an above average SS last season due to his glove and a bit of pop in his bat. If the league and Cozart replay themselves at the SS position for the next 5 years, I'd be happy. If you are expecting him to decline, that's one thing. But it seems you are looking at his woeful OBP and decided that he needs replaced.

    You are correct that his OBP stinks. But no offense, but it just seems that you are missing the big picture on him, to the point you shrug off his WAR as an anomaly.

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  3. #32
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    That is of course if you believe his offensive values and defensive values are accurate. I think Cozart is more of a 2 win guy than a 3 win guy (where as the numbers say more 3 than 2). It isn't that I don't think he has value. It is that I don't see much increase coming from what he is right now and if he takes even a small step back, he is below average.

  4. #33
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    The better players may have the largest discrepancy. It may be that Bruce feasts on bad pitching but us just normal vs. good pitching. I haven't seen the stats. How does he rank vs. other hitters vs. good pitching?
    I don't know. They didn't get into that. I don't know if it's true that the better players tend to have the largest discrepancy, but there were a couple of big names who hit excellent pitching almost as well as bad pitching -- Jeter and Votto.

    I believe the sample size was the 2012 season.
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  5. #34
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    but you HEAVILY weighted his OBP to the point you couldn't seem to get past it
    It's not unusual around here.

    Cozart will improve. He's an instinctive, smart player. While I would have loved to see what Didi could become (as a Red), I am very confident Cozart will be a solid, consistent major league SS who contributes in all phases of the game, for years to come.
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  6. #35
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    LOL. No doubt.
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  7. #36
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    I just finished reading this and was going to post. Interesting "least volatile" players:

    • Ryan Hanigan
    • Joey Votto (not that he's consistent but _how_ consistent...wow!)
    • Shin-Soo Choo


    Interesting "most volatile" players:

    • James Loney
    • Casey McGehee
    • Mitch Moreland


    Mainly, the most volatile list reads like my fantasy baseball team from last year and actually explains a lot of "holy crap" mornings looking at the previous night's results.
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  8. #37
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    The one thing I have to ask about this list, if I understand the formula correctly, the most volatile players seemed like a list of generally not very good players. Could this be because when your season stats are not that high, it's not as hard to eclipse them in smaller samples than it is for players with better overall numbers? Might this skew the results?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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  9. #38
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Also, I'm very glad Choo is one of the least volatile players. That will help a lot in the playoffs theoretically, when this team seems to go cold.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  10. #39
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he wasn't a good fielder.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he didn't hit sac flies (because they landed in the seats).
    And he wasn't clutch.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he wasn't a good fielder.
    and he wasn't clutch.
    And he didn't hit sac flies.
    Congrats, Doug. Very complete list, with one exception...he struck out a lot one more time.
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  11. #40
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Part of my issue with Dunn WAS his OBP... on many of the teams that he was a part of in Cincinnati there was typically a sharp drop-off in offensive potential from him to whoever was protecting him...

    In many cases he would have been better served by being a bit more aggressive at the plate vs. taking the walk and hoping whoever was hitting behind him would get it done...

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  12. #41
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Part of my issue with Dunn WAS his OBP... on many of the teams that he was a part of in Cincinnati there was typically a sharp drop-off in offensive potential from him to whoever was protecting him...

    In many cases he would have been better served by being a bit more aggressive at the plate vs. taking the walk and hoping whoever was hitting behind him would get it done...

    2004 - Jimenez, Pena, LaRue, Kearns
    2005 - Kearns, Randa, Pena
    2006 - Kearns, Hatteberg, Encarnacion
    2007 - Encarnacion, Hatteberg, Valentin
    2008 - Encarnacion
    Is this a bait? It's practically how all Dunn debates starts!

    I hope the Dunn fans can just let this one go and let the opinions stand on their own.

  13. #42
    Member 919191's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he wasn't a good fielder.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he didn't hit sac flies (because they landed in the seats).
    And he wasn't clutch.
    And he struck out a lot.
    And he wasn't a good fielder.
    and he wasn't clutch.
    And he didn't hit sac flies.
    I always said Dunn did hit sac flies, just not right.. He hit them too far out of the ballpark.
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  14. #43
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Is this a bait? It's practically how all Dunn debates starts!

    I hope the Dunn fans can just let this one go and let the opinions stand on their own.
    I get it... I loved him. I hated him. And I loved to hate him...

    This guy put me all over the map as a Reds fan.
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  15. #44
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Jay Bruce remains an enigma to me and I've come to something of a detente with him. I've told myself that I need to look at the finished product of a season. Somehow it ends up being a decent season. I'm not sure he'll ever be the monster that folks hoped for, but overall, he'll put up good numbers. Maybe as he continues to mature (I like the head on his shoulder), he may even out his consistency in the coming years. I also always need to remind myself just how young he still is. He'll be just turning 26 as the season starts and it will be his 6th season. He's moving into his prime, isn't he?
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  16. #45
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Overall, this is an interesting effort, but I would expect the better wOBA people to be more volatile. If Votto has a .400 OBP, it's a lot easier to have a day that's worse than his average than it is for someone like Stubbs to maintain his average (which is closer to the distribution peaks of .000 and .250 shown in the graph) The different multipliers hide that fact.

    I can't think of a better method. I don't mean to come across as negative, but I question whether this has true value.
    Not sure if this adds to your comment, or explains it, or just adds to the confusion, but here goes...

    I bowl. A lot. Average over 220, which even in this day and age is pretty elite. I definitely have more "down" days than up days. The thing is, my baseline is so high that my down days aren't really all that down (say I have a 620 series which is 40 pins under my overall average) but when I do well, I do really well (last night I had 744 series, which is 84 pins over my average). So what I am is remarkably consistent on the lower end of my scoring, and when I do deviate greatly from my norm, it's in the positive range.

    I see Votto as the same way. He does his 2-strike choke-up because he's striving to maintain his high baseline performance. Bruce doesn't change his approach in order to maintain a baseline. Therefore Votto is (or appears to be?) less volatile than Bruce is.
    The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)


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