How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

[Vottomatic]

I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.

[Nasty_Boy]

I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.

Pretty decent? How many guys do that?

[Homer Bailey]

I've been down on Bruce in the past. The hype wore me out.

But I've come to terms that at best he'll be a .260-.270 hitter, but probably hit 35-45 HR's eventually. That's actually pretty decent. Alot of fans thought he'd hit .300 and hit all those HR's. Ain't gonna happen.

I'll admit, you got a laugh out of me.

[westofyou]

I'll admit, you got a laugh out of me.

Since 1969

SEASON
1969-2012
AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .290
HOMERUNS BETWEEN 35 AND 45

OPS                           YEAR     OPS      AVG      HR     
1    Willie McCovey           1970    1.056     .289       39   
2    Jack Clark               1987    1.055     .286       35   
3    Jeff Bagwell             1997    1.017     .286       43   
4    Jim Thome                2006    1.014     .288       42   
5    Jim Edmonds              2003    1.002     .275       39   
6    Jim Thome                1997    1.001     .286       40   
7    Carlos Beltran           2006     .982     .275       41   
8    Darryl Strawberry        1987     .981     .284       39   
9    Jim Thome                2004     .977     .274       42   
10   Jim Thome                2007     .973     .275       35   
11   John Jaha                1999     .970     .276       35   
12   Mike Schmidt             1977     .967     .274       38   
13   Jeff Bagwell             2001     .966     .288       39   
14   Carlos Quentin           2008     .965     .288       36   
15   Frank Howard             1970     .962     .283       44   
16   Rafael Palmeiro          2002     .962     .273       43   
17   David Justice            2000     .961     .286       41   
18   Darrell Evans            1973     .959     .281       41   
19   Adrian Gonzalez          2009     .958     .277       40   
20   Harmon Killebrew         1970     .957     .271       41   
21   Rafael Palmeiro          2000     .954     .288       39   
22   Fred McGriff             1992     .950     .286       35   
23   Mike Schmidt             1982     .949     .280       35   
24   Carlos Delgado           1999     .948     .272       44   
25   Carlos Delgado           2001     .948     .279       39   
26   Morgan Ensberg           2005     .945     .283       36   
27   Shawn Green              2002     .944     .285       42   
28   Alex Rodriguez           1999     .943     .285       42   
29   Ken Griffey Jr.          2000     .942     .271       40   
30   Mike Schmidt             1974     .941     .282       36   
31   Edwin Encarnacion        2012     .941     .280       42   
32   Mike Schmidt             1986     .937     .290       37   
33   Ryan Howard              2009     .931     .279       45   
34   Jay Bell                 1999     .931     .289       38   
35   Josh Hamilton            2012     .930     .285       43   
36   Mark Teixeira            2004     .929     .281       38   
37   Howard Johnson           1989     .928     .287       36   
38   Jason Bay                2006     .928     .286       35   
39   Rafael Palmeiro          1996     .927     .289       39   
40   Gary Sheffield           2004     .927     .290       36   
41   Richie Sexson            2003     .927     .272       45   
42   Jesse Barfield           1986     .927     .289       40   
43   Frank Thomas             2006     .926     .270       39   
44   Jay Buhner               1996     .926     .271       44   
45   Albert Belle             1993     .922     .290       38   
46   Pat Burrell              2002     .920     .282       37   
47   Mike Schmidt             1984     .919     .277       36   
48   Dale Murphy              1984     .919     .290       36   
49   Davey Johnson            1973     .916     .270       43   
50   Jeromy Burnitz           2004     .916     .283       37   
51   Jose Canseco             1990     .914     .274       37   
52   Sammy Sosa               2003     .911     .279       40   
53   Paul Konerko             2005     .909     .283       40   
54   Reggie Jackson           1982     .907     .275       39   
55   George Foster            1978     .906     .281       40   
56   Steve Finley             2000     .904     .280       35   
57   Bobby Bonds              1973     .900     .283       39   
58   Bill Hall                2006     .899     .270       35   
59   Jeff Bagwell             2003     .897     .278       39   
60   Paul Konerko             2004     .894     .277       41   
61   Dave Winfield            1982     .891     .280       37   
62   Richie Sexson            2001     .889     .271       45   
63   Ryan Braun               2008     .888     .285       37   
64   Alex Rodriguez           2004     .888     .286       36   
65   Sammy Sosa               1996     .888     .273       40   
66   Henry Rodriguez          1996     .887     .276       36   
67   Dale Murphy              1982     .885     .281       36   
68   Jeff Burroughs           1977     .882     .271       41   
69   Preston Wilson           2003     .880     .282       36   
70   Darryl Strawberry        1990     .879     .277       37   
71   Dean Palmer              1996     .876     .280       38   
72   David Justice            1993     .871     .270       40   
73   Adrian Gonzalez          2008     .871     .279       36   
74   Carlos Delgado           2008     .871     .271       38   
75   Terry Steinbach          1996     .871     .272       35   
76   Vinny Castilla           2004     .867     .271       35   
77   Lee May                  1971     .864     .278       39   
78   Mo Vaughn                2000     .864     .272       36   
79   Lee May                  1969     .860     .278       38   
80   George Scott             1975     .857     .285       36   
81   Ron Gant                 1993     .854     .274       36   
82   Andruw Jones             2003     .851     .277       36   
83   Shawn Green              1998     .844     .278       35   
84   Aaron Hill               2009     .829     .286       36   
85   Garret Anderson          2000     .827     .286       35   
86   Steve Finley             2004     .823     .271       36   
87   Tony Armas               1980     .810     .279       35

[Vottomatic]

I see the vocabulary posters are out in full force.

[M2]

Real interesting study. Apparently one of the keys to being what we define as a great hitter is a lack of volatility - Jeter, Rose, Suzuki, Boggs, Molitor and Gwynn are some of the least volatile hitters in recent history. And it underlines how amazing Jeter is. I'm married to a Yankees fan, so I see a pile of Yankees games every year. Jeter is a force of nature. Game after game he's at the center of key moments. He's relentless and that's why he's revered as a quasi-religious icon by Yankees fans. The more you watch him the more you come to appreciate just how amazing a player he is.

Also not terribly surprising to see Raines, Abreu, Lofton and Butler on that list. A lot of what made those guys so good was their consistency. And their speed isn't factored into this equation, so they brought danger on the bases on top of the their consistency at the plate.

Pretty exciting to see Choo near the top of the 2012 list. That's what the Reds need, a consistent threat at the top of the lineup. He really is an ideal fit for the lineup. And the list creates yet more fodder for those who insist Hanigan should hit in the #2 slot, though Phillips graded pretty steady as well.

[redsmetz]

Pretty decent? How many guys do that?

Falling one short of that bottom 35 mark, he placed 10th in the majors in home runs hit. Not bad company right there.

[Vottomatic]

Since 1969

SEASON
1969-2012
AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .290
HOMERUNS BETWEEN 35 AND 45

OPS                           YEAR     OPS      AVG      HR     
1    Willie McCovey           1970    1.056     .289       39   
2    Jack Clark               1987    1.055     .286       35   
3    Jeff Bagwell             1997    1.017     .286       43   
4    Jim Thome                2006    1.014     .288       42   
5    Jim Edmonds              2003    1.002     .275       39   
6    Jim Thome                1997    1.001     .286       40   
7    Carlos Beltran           2006     .982     .275       41   
8    Darryl Strawberry        1987     .981     .284       39   
9    Jim Thome                2004     .977     .274       42   
10   Jim Thome                2007     .973     .275       35   
11   John Jaha                1999     .970     .276       35   
12   Mike Schmidt             1977     .967     .274       38   
13   Jeff Bagwell             2001     .966     .288       39   
14   Carlos Quentin           2008     .965     .288       36   
15   Frank Howard             1970     .962     .283       44   
16   Rafael Palmeiro          2002     .962     .273       43   
17   David Justice            2000     .961     .286       41   
18   Darrell Evans            1973     .959     .281       41   
19   Adrian Gonzalez          2009     .958     .277       40   
20   Harmon Killebrew         1970     .957     .271       41   
21   Rafael Palmeiro          2000     .954     .288       39   
22   Fred McGriff             1992     .950     .286       35   
23   Mike Schmidt             1982     .949     .280       35   
24   Carlos Delgado           1999     .948     .272       44   
25   Carlos Delgado           2001     .948     .279       39   
26   Morgan Ensberg           2005     .945     .283       36   
27   Shawn Green              2002     .944     .285       42   
28   Alex Rodriguez           1999     .943     .285       42   
29   Ken Griffey Jr.          2000     .942     .271       40   
30   Mike Schmidt             1974     .941     .282       36   
31   Edwin Encarnacion        2012     .941     .280       42   
32   Mike Schmidt             1986     .937     .290       37   
33   Ryan Howard              2009     .931     .279       45   
34   Jay Bell                 1999     .931     .289       38   
35   Josh Hamilton            2012     .930     .285       43   
36   Mark Teixeira            2004     .929     .281       38   
37   Howard Johnson           1989     .928     .287       36   
38   Jason Bay                2006     .928     .286       35   
39   Rafael Palmeiro          1996     .927     .289       39   
40   Gary Sheffield           2004     .927     .290       36   
41   Richie Sexson            2003     .927     .272       45   
42   Jesse Barfield           1986     .927     .289       40   
43   Frank Thomas             2006     .926     .270       39   
44   Jay Buhner               1996     .926     .271       44   
45   Albert Belle             1993     .922     .290       38   
46   Pat Burrell              2002     .920     .282       37   
47   Mike Schmidt             1984     .919     .277       36   
48   Dale Murphy              1984     .919     .290       36   
49   Davey Johnson            1973     .916     .270       43   
50   Jeromy Burnitz           2004     .916     .283       37   
51   Jose Canseco             1990     .914     .274       37   
52   Sammy Sosa               2003     .911     .279       40   
53   Paul Konerko             2005     .909     .283       40   
54   Reggie Jackson           1982     .907     .275       39   
55   George Foster            1978     .906     .281       40   
56   Steve Finley             2000     .904     .280       35   
57   Bobby Bonds              1973     .900     .283       39   
58   Bill Hall                2006     .899     .270       35   
59   Jeff Bagwell             2003     .897     .278       39   
60   Paul Konerko             2004     .894     .277       41   
61   Dave Winfield            1982     .891     .280       37   
62   Richie Sexson            2001     .889     .271       45   
63   Ryan Braun               2008     .888     .285       37   
64   Alex Rodriguez           2004     .888     .286       36   
65   Sammy Sosa               1996     .888     .273       40   
66   Henry Rodriguez          1996     .887     .276       36   
67   Dale Murphy              1982     .885     .281       36   
68   Jeff Burroughs           1977     .882     .271       41   
69   Preston Wilson           2003     .880     .282       36   
70   Darryl Strawberry        1990     .879     .277       37   
71   Dean Palmer              1996     .876     .280       38   
72   David Justice            1993     .871     .270       40   
73   Adrian Gonzalez          2008     .871     .279       36   
74   Carlos Delgado           2008     .871     .271       38   
75   Terry Steinbach          1996     .871     .272       35   
76   Vinny Castilla           2004     .867     .271       35   
77   Lee May                  1971     .864     .278       39   
78   Mo Vaughn                2000     .864     .272       36   
79   Lee May                  1969     .860     .278       38   
80   George Scott             1975     .857     .285       36   
81   Ron Gant                 1993     .854     .274       36   
82   Andruw Jones             2003     .851     .277       36   
83   Shawn Green              1998     .844     .278       35   
84   Aaron Hill               2009     .829     .286       36   
85   Garret Anderson          2000     .827     .286       35   
86   Steve Finley             2004     .823     .271       36   
87   Tony Armas               1980     .810     .279       35

The problem with your analysis is that I said between .260 and .270. You must have flipped the "6".

Just kidding.

[M2]

Interesting "most volatile" players:

• James Loney
• Casey McGehee
• Mitch Moreland

For a few years there Loney might have been the single most overrated player in baseball. And his game is not going to age well.

[westofyou]

Everyone has an opinion on Jay

[REDREAD]

Not sure if this adds to your comment, or explains it, or just adds to the confusion, but here goes...

I bowl. A lot. Average over 220, which even in this day and age is pretty elite. I definitely have more "down" days than up days. The thing is, my baseline is so high that my down days aren't really all that down (say I have a 620 series which is 40 pins under my overall average) but when I do well, I do really well (last night I had 744 series, which is 84 pins over my average). So what I am is remarkably consistent on the lower end of my scoring, and when I do deviate greatly from my norm, it's in the positive range.

I see Votto as the same way. He does his 2-strike choke-up because he's striving to maintain his high baseline performance. Bruce doesn't change his approach in order to maintain a baseline. Therefore Votto is (or appears to be?) less volatile than Bruce is.

I guess it depends on how you want to measure consistency. Let say you have a .400 wOBA player, but he's super streaky.. Shouldn't his stretch of "hot" periods increase his volatility? If he has a bigger spread on his performance (even if his "bad' period are above average), doesn't that make him more volatile.

I guess high volatility isn't necessarily a bad thing, IMO.

Anyhow, I have problems with this formula penalizing the lower performing players. IMO, it makes it almost useless to compare players.
If the mean performance of a player is high, then naturally when he has a 0-4 day it should mean more volality than a guy that stinks.

[Rojo]

I recall some computer modeling that showed adding in one base-hitty type to a OB and power lineup performed better than an all OB and power lineup.

Besides his D, that's why Phillips was always more valuable than his OPS, it's hit-heavy and he can run.

Interesting that Choo had more hits than anyone on the Reds last year. Nice.

[Jpup]

I recall some computer modeling that showed adding in one base-hitty type to a OB and power lineup performed better than an all OB and power lineup.

Besides his D, that's why Phillips was always more valuable than his OPS, it's hit-heavy and he can run.

Interesting that Choo had more hits than anyone on the Reds last year. Nice.

Except that Phillips can't run.

[westofyou]

Except that Phillips can't run.

He can run, he just can't steal anymore

[dougdirt]

He can run, he just can't steal anymore

15 of 17 this year says otherwise.

The few years before then were bad though.