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View Poll Results: Who will be the Reds MVP from 2015-2020?

Voters
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  • Joey Votto

    23 69.70%
  • Jay Bruce

    6 18.18%
  • Todd Frazier

    0 0%
  • Billy Hamilton

    3 9.09%
  • One of the Big Three SP (Latos, Cueto, Bailey - list below)

    0 0%
  • Aroldis Chapman

    0 0%
  • Robert Stephenson

    0 0%
  • A Minor Leaguer Not Currently Listed (list below)

    0 0%
  • Someone who is not currently in the organization

    1 3.03%
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Thread: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

  1. #16
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Yeah, Latos kind of reminds me of Volquez. Not stuff-wise, but mentally. Seems to have all the tools, but I'm not sure he has the mental make-up for what it takes to be great.

    But he's still "young" and has a few years before we decide he's done developing.
    He was great last year, emotional hiccups on the mound included. He's certainly no Volquez.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  3. #17
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Yes. He's got a lot to prove still to me. I have no doubt he can annually put up seasons like last season, but as for Cy Young stuff, he has to show a little more.

    I think he can do it, but he does have to prove it first. He was nails for that game but the wheels came off after a few bad calls.
    Agreed. He's already a really good pitcher overall, but he still has something to prove before I'm putting him in that class.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  4. #18
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    I might get beat up here in the Reds Zone but I don't see it with Hamilton. I think he will get a good player but I just cannot see him being the MVP for the Reds. If he's the MVP for the Reds with the lack of power, I think the Reds will be in trouble the next half of the decade if this is the case. I seem Hamilton as a good leadoff hitter but I don't see his speed being something that will make him more valuable than a 30 HR+, 100+ RBI per year guy.

    *puts helmet on preparing for a Reds Zone beatdown.

    EDIT: I'm actually willing to put real money on the idea that a prospect like Oscar Taveras will have a greater career arc than Hamilton simply because Taveras brings more power and better place discipline to the table.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 12-19-2012 at 07:01 PM.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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  5. #19
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I'm actually willing to put real money on the idea that a prospect like Oscar Taveras will have a greater career arc than Hamilton simply because Taveras brings more power and better place discipline to the table.
    I'd take Taveras any day of the week over Hamilton. I doubt there isn't any GM in baseball who would disagree with that.

  6. #20
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'd take Taveras any day of the week over Hamilton. I doubt there isn't any GM in baseball who would disagree with that.
    I find it odd that we have been agreeing on things more recently than in the past. Maybe the Mayan Apocalypes is happeing.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  7. #21
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    I think Hamilton will bring a unique skillset to the table.

    If he can obp somewhere between .350 and .400, he'll get 100+ stolen bases.

    That would mean Taveras (or anyone else, for that matter) would have to hit 30 HR more than Hamilton and find another 10 bases on top of that between stolen bases and doubles/ triples that Hamilton doesn't. (I'm assuming Hamilton's doubles and triples will continue to roughly equal Taveras' doubles and triples.)

    It's certainly possible that Taveras could do that-- he's probably the second- or third- best prospect in baseball right now behind Wil Myers and Jackson Profrar. But that's an awful long hill to climb.

    It's possible that Hamilton becomes an early career Tim Raines or a Brett Butler leadoff hitter. Both of those guys are HOF, IMO.

    He may not. Some speed guys don't pan out. Then again, Taveras' numbers are pretty close to those of Brad Komminsk.
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 12-19-2012 at 07:49 PM.
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  8. #22
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I think Hamilton will bring a unique skillset to the table.

    If he can obp somewhere between .350 and .400, he'll get 100+ stolen bases.

    That would mean Taveras (or anyone else, for that matter) would have to hit 30 HR more than Hamilton and find another 10 bases on top of that between stolen bases and doubles/ triples that Hamilton doesn't. (I'm assuming Hamilton's doubles and triples will continue to roughly equal Taveras' doubles and triples.)

    It's certainly possible that Taveras could do that-- he's probably the second- or third- best prospect in baseball right now behind Wil Myers and Jackson Profrar. But that's an awful long hill to climb.

    It's possible that Hamilton becomes an early career Tim Raines or a Brett Butler leadoff hitter. Both of those guys are HOF, IMO.

    He may not. Some speed guys don't pan out. Then again, Taveras' numbers are pretty close to those of Brad Komminsk.
    IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

    There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.
    Last edited by PuffyPig; 12-19-2012 at 08:25 PM.

  9. #23
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

    There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.
    I'd rather have Taveras than Hamilton for a bunch of reasons; however, Hamilton's value will come more from his general running on the base paths (getting those extra bases on his and other's hits) than his stolen bases. It's actually going to be hard to measure the impact he has on the bases, since there really hasn't been anyone with his speed, in the game recently.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  10. #24
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

    There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.
    The percentage of stolen base value depends on runs. As runs go down (and they are), SB success rate doesn't need be so high. However, you're absolutely right in calculating in CS. I failed to do so.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  11. #25
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    I'm really surprised I'm the only one who said was somebody not in the organization.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #26
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm really surprised I'm the only one who said was somebody not in the organization.
    Care to elaborate? Future draft pick? Trade or free agent?

    It's not bad logic as other than minor leaguers, few Reds are controlled past 2017 or so. But I'd go with the field of Votto + our current minor leaguers over the field of yet to be acquired minor leaguers.


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