Last edited by jojo; 12-21-2012 at 05:00 PM.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)
When you add in the 2 year age "edge" Votto has and that he's starting further left on the defensive spectrum, it would seem that Longoria is a better bet to maintain his current level of production over an extended period of time. Obviously we end up in the same place, preferring to have Longoria over Votto, I just think it's a no-brainer.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-27-2012 at 02:40 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."
Comparing Longoria's and Votto's WAR is a perfect example as to why WAR has some failings. Technically, Longo has averaged a higher WAR than Votto but can any sane person say that they would legitimately take Longo over Votto? There is no way I would trade Votto strait up for Longo, even taking into account contract. I've always felt WAR has not measured the true value of firstbaseman close to accurate, anyways. I cannot give that position a worse starting fielding value than an outfielder to a position that touches the ball the most besides the pitcher and catcher as well as saving a ton of errors by errand throws from other infielders. For example, I cannot give Matt Holliday a better fielding starting value (when calculating WAR) over Pujols when Pujols was playing with arguably one of the worst defensive 2B in the league a couple of years ago (Skip Schumaker) and Ryan Theriot at SS (horrible memories). WAR has it's uses but I don't think it's of great value when talking about what one could get in return for Votto. WAR simply does not tell the whole story.
What does it have to do with Votto? Well I view Votto as the same way right now. Longo is great and would love to have him on the Cardinals. However, he doesn't change the way opponents play the game like Votto does. This is something that WAR does not take into account. As much as I admire advanced stats, there are things that those stats cannot and will not be able to quantify.