/r/reds
Last edited by jojo; 12-21-2012 at 05:00 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I think this ought to be a valid concern. I know the consensus is going to be "wait-and-see" but when you've built your entire franchise around a player, I'm not sure giving him a season or two to bounce back is going sit well with most fans. It's fine to be patient with Votto, but patience has limits.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
I'm betting he'll be fine. I had the same type of injury about a year ago. Neglected it for 6 weeks before finally seeing a doctor. Went through rehab and haven't had a problem since. And I'm not a world-class athlete with a large medical team. Obviously, each situation is unique, but it would shock me greatly if Votto isn't ready to go in spring training.
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
I'm curious why you think that Votto is "probably a bit of a better player". Just looking at career to date, Longoria has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA compared to Votto's 6.1 WAR per 650 PA and neither has long term injury concerns. Or perhaps you do think Longoria is a greater injury risk? Perhaps it's a function of the error bars on defensive production, as Jojo suggests?
When you add in the 2 year age "edge" Votto has and that he's starting further left on the defensive spectrum, it would seem that Longoria is a better bet to maintain his current level of production over an extended period of time. Obviously we end up in the same place, preferring to have Longoria over Votto, I just think it's a no-brainer.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-27-2012 at 02:40 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."
Comparing Longoria's and Votto's WAR is a perfect example as to why WAR has some failings. Technically, Longo has averaged a higher WAR than Votto but can any sane person say that they would legitimately take Longo over Votto? There is no way I would trade Votto strait up for Longo, even taking into account contract. I've always felt WAR has not measured the true value of firstbaseman close to accurate, anyways. I cannot give that position a worse starting fielding value than an outfielder to a position that touches the ball the most besides the pitcher and catcher as well as saving a ton of errors by errand throws from other infielders. For example, I cannot give Matt Holliday a better fielding starting value (when calculating WAR) over Pujols when Pujols was playing with arguably one of the worst defensive 2B in the league a couple of years ago (Skip Schumaker) and Ryan Theriot at SS (horrible memories). WAR has it's uses but I don't think it's of great value when talking about what one could get in return for Votto. WAR simply does not tell the whole story.
The thing is I don't think they are or would be of similar value and it's why I don't agree with the original post. I like Longo but to me Votto is on another planet. I've experienced this exact argument about WAR around the 2007is 2008is seasons. I've argued none stop with Phillies fans when they said Chase Utley was as valuable as Albert Pujols, because their WAR's were similar. According to Fangraphs, they're technically right. From 2007-2009, Pujols averaged 8.8 WAR seasons vs. Utley who averaged 8.1 WAR seasons. Pretty similar technically but I don't know if anyone in their right mind, outside of Philadelphia, would objectively take Chase Utley over Pujols. Pujols was/is a transcendent player where Utley was a great player. No question Utley was great in his prime but he didn't change the way opponents played the game like Pujols did. Pujols was clearly the most dominant offensive player not only during that time frame but during the decade of the 00's.
What does it have to do with Votto? Well I view Votto as the same way right now. Longo is great and would love to have him on the Cardinals. However, he doesn't change the way opponents play the game like Votto does. This is something that WAR does not take into account. As much as I admire advanced stats, there are things that those stats cannot and will not be able to quantify.
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